Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

10.6%

+841

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Peter Lambert (RHP) (0.79 HR/9) · park 88

Batting #5Projected lineup

2+ RBI

9.8%

+916

RBI 1+

33.3%

+200

Hits 1+

64.8%

-185

Hits 2+

22.7%

+341

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.9%

95% CI · 15.5–16.3%

+529

Fair odds

1st AB

4.4%

Through AB2

8.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-12%
vs SP+10%
SP Contact-13%
Statcast+23%
SP Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Peter Lambert (RHP)

·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0418 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+10% (×1.10) · blended_proj

Park-12% (×0.88)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-13% (×0.87)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+840

High

+830

Low

+310

Med

+450

Avg

+524

🐾+840

Low +310🐾 HR money zoneHigh +830

WARMspot score 83

Just below his HR money zone (+585 to +585). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+5852026-06-02vs TBbook line

AwayBat 4thoff LHP4-Seamer

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

16.8

Proj PA

371

HR / PA

.045

ISO

.210

wOBA

.350

wRC+

122

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.9

Hard%

38.6

FB%

38.1

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

9.7

GB%

38.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

31.1

FB%

33.3

Pull%

44.4

Soft%

17.8

GB%

37.8

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

11.5

Hard%

41.2

FB%

39.7

Pull%

35.1

Soft%

6.9

GB%

38.2

Home

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

41.8

FB%

35.4

Pull%

41.8

Soft%

5.1

GB%

41.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

10.3

Hard%

36.1

FB%

40.2

Pull%

34.0

Soft%

13.4

GB%

35.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Daikin Park suppresses HRs (88)
Peter Lambert stingy: only 0.79 HR/9
13.1% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
50.0% hard-hit — punisher
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (36% of career HRs)
Park drag (88)
Elite barrel% (13.1)
High barrels/PA (7.6%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.79 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.225↓ vs season .25749 PA · 15d

OPS

.777

ISO

.225

RBI

K-BB

15-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-15	@ HOU	4	1	0	0	1	2	.250
06-13	@ CLE	4	1	0	0	0	2	.250
06-12	@ CLE	3	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-11	vs MIN	3	1	1	2	0	1	1.333
💣 356ft · 98.6 EV · 4-Seamer
06-10	vs MIN	4	0	0	0	1	3	—
06-09	vs MIN	3	1	1	2	1	0	1.333
💣 367ft · 101.3 EV · 4-Seamer
06-07	vs SEA	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-06	vs SEA	4	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR80PA	.232	.416	18.9	45.3	42	19.0
🐾CHChangeupvR43PA	.121	.256	8.0	36.0	68	36.6
🐾SLSlidervR20PA	.105	.366	14.3	64.3	64	22.2
🐾FCCuttervR15PA	.384	.485	33.3	88.9	78	25.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.120	.239	0.0	33.3	50	32.1	141	31
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.232	.416	18.9	45.3	42	19.0	134	80

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.143	.167	0.0	25.0	75	40.0	141	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.121	.256	8.0	36.0	68	36.6	134	43

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.067	.316	7.7	53.8	54	34.5	141	16
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.105	.366	14.3	64.3	64	22.2	134	20

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.384	.485	33.3	88.9	78	25.0	134	15

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

115

vs SHB

102

Daikin Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Greene.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Projected1 of 50 HRs · 2%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 18 of 50 career HRs (36%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#3#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.154

Barrel %

13.1

Hard Hit %

50.0

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.357

xBA

.257

Brl / PA %

7.60

Max EV (mph)

112.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.8

Avg EV on HRs

107.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

415

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/5

Avg LA on HRs

29.2°

Brl / PA %

7.60

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Peter Lambert · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
30
xwOBA
.416
Whiff%
19.0
HH%
45.3
BRL%
18.9
Pull%
42
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.256
Whiff%
36.6
HH%
36.0
BRL%
8.0
Pull%
68
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 43 PA this season.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.366
Whiff%
22.2
HH%
64.3
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
64

Peter Lambert (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	29.5	19.3	47.2	40	.378	18.2
CHChangeup	21.9	0.0	26.7	77	.263	20.8
SLSlider	18.6	6.5	40.0	52	.226	11.3
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	10.4	0.0	45.5	55	.288	31.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	10.3	37.9	48	.296	20.0	47
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	28.6	57.1	32	.478	15.6	36

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	19.0	76	.303	18.4	39
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	44.4	78	.168	25.0	16

SLSlider19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	50.0	50	.223	16.7	22
vs RHB	5.9	35.3	53	.231	3.3	18

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	57.1	57	.319	34.5	22
vs RHB	0.0	25.0	50	.197	22.2	7

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 31.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .484). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (HOU)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Daikin Park (315/409/326 ft) · elev 50ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

CHChangeup1

STSweeper1

CUCurveball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 18 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP212PA	.155	.460	.837	13.8%	6
vs LHP90PA	.151	.425	.836	10.6%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home138PA	.169	.483	.882	16.9%	4
🐾Away164PA	.141	.423	.801	10.1%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day114PA	.155	.423	.791	16.7%	3
Night188PA	.153	.466	.865	10.8%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty95PA	.214	.524	.913	4
Runners On141PA	.106	.385	.747	2
RISP81PA	.153	.403	.712	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs94PA	.150	.388	.739	3
1 Out102PA	.177	.506	.928	3
2 Outs106PA	.137	.453	.840	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Wed.