Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

9.9%

+913

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Walbert Ureña (RHP) (0.65 HR/9) · park 82

2+ RBI

9.4%

+961

RBI 1+

32.9%

+204

Hits 1+

66.6%

-200

Hits 2+

24.6%

+306

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

16.2%

95% CI · 15.7–16.6%

+519

Fair odds

1st AB

3.8%

Through AB2

7.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-18%
Temp+5%
vs SP-10%
Contact+24%
SP Contact-16%
Statcast+24%
SP Statcast-5%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Walbert Ureña (RHP)

·108F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0408 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park-18% (×0.82)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+24% (×1.24)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-16% (×0.84)

SP Statcast allowed-5% (×0.95)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 17 games · 3 HR

Now

+290

High

+1010

Low

+305

Med

+590

Avg

+609

🐾🐾🐾+290

Low +305🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1010

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 3× priced here.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+3052026-06-13vs CINbook line

AwayBat 2ndoff RHPSlider

🐾+8752026-06-07vs WSHfair odds

HomeBat 2ndoff RHPKnuckle-Curve

🐾+4752026-06-02vs LADbook line

HomeBat 2ndoff LHPCutter

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

15.4

Proj PA

372

HR / PA

.041

ISO

.225

wOBA

.366

wRC+

132

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

15.2

Hard%

39.9

FB%

42.0

Pull%

48.4

Soft%

16.5

GB%

42.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

35.3

FB%

32.4

Pull%

42.6

Soft%

19.1

GB%

45.6

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

17.5

Hard%

42.5

FB%

47.5

Pull%

51.7

Soft%

15.0

GB%

40.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

43.0

FB%

45.2

Pull%

49.5

Soft%

18.3

GB%

38.7

Away

HR/FB

13.5

Hard%

36.8

FB%

38.9

Pull%

47.4

Soft%

14.7

GB%

45.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Chase Field suppresses HRs (82)
Walbert Ureña stingy: only 0.65 HR/9
Elite power: .270 ISO
13.3% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
50.0% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (76% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .947 OPS over last 15 days
108°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (82)
Elite barrel% (13.3)
High barrels/PA (8.7%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.65 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.260↓ vs season .26855 PA · 15d

OPS

.947

ISO

.360

RBI

K-BB

10-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ CIN	5	2	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 433ft · 111.8 EV · Slider
06-12	@ CIN	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-11	@ MIA	3	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-10	@ MIA	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-09	@ MIA	5	1	1	2	0	2	.800
💣 400ft · 105.7 EV · 4-Seamer
06-07	vs WSH	3	1	1	1	1	0	1.333
💣 417ft · 106.0 EV · Knuckle-Curve
06-06	vs WSH	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-05	vs WSH	3	0	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeupvR21PA	.316	.352	11.8	41.2	65	23.8
🐾SISinkervR22PA	.150	.308	5.6	55.6	56	21.1
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR70PA	.363	.352	19.4	50.0	64	29.7
🐾STSweepervR15PA	.077	.335	22.2	55.6	78	23.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.250	.351	20.0	60.0	80	33.3	216	9
vs RHPTONIGHT	.316	.352	11.8	41.2	65	23.8	124	21

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.313	.478	14.3	42.9	64	24.3	216	18
vs RHPTONIGHT	.150	.308	5.6	55.6	56	21.1	124	22

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.167	.453	14.3	57.1	71	28.1	216	23
vs RHPTONIGHT	.363	.352	19.4	50.0	64	29.7	124	70

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.265	0.0	28.6	71	33.3	216	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.077	.335	22.2	55.6	78	23.8	124	15

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

106

vs SHB

Chase Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Carroll.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 37 of 49 career HRs (76%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.270

Barrel %

13.3

Hard Hit %

50.0

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.369

xBA

.268

Brl / PA %

8.70

Max EV (mph)

111.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.8

Avg EV on HRs

105.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

416

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

5/8

Avg LA on HRs

29.1°

Brl / PA %

8.70

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Walbert Ureña · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.352
Whiff%
23.8
HH%
41.2
BRL%
11.8
Pull%
65
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.308
Whiff%
21.1
HH%
55.6
BRL%
5.6
Pull%
56
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.352
Whiff%
29.7
HH%
50.0
BRL%
19.4
Pull%
64

Walbert Ureña (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.9	2.1	18.8	75	.227	24.0
SISinker	31.0	8.8	42.6	65	.379	23.7
FF4-Seam Fastball	22.0	0.0	35.5	55	.237	19.2
STSweeper	15.1	16.7	33.3	56	.297	17.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	2.5	20.0	73	.253	17.6	58
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	12.5	88	.162	39.3	23

SISinker31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.5	59.1	50	.338	14.3	28
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	34.3	74	.404	29.6	52

FF4-Seam Fastball22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	28.6	57	.252	23.4	35
vs RHB	0.0	41.2	53	.218	12.9	24

STSweeper15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	50.0	50.0	25	.389	6.2	5
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	64	.276	24.2	23

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .602). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ARI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Chase Field (330/407/335 ft) · elev 1086ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 7vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

CHChangeup2

SLSlider1

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.7 games · 11 PA (3 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP195PA	.271	.488	.816	16.7%	10
vs LHP92PA	.268	.683	1.150	8.7%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home140PA	.333	.633	1.026	17.0%	7
Away147PA	.211	.477	.831	10.5%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day122PA	.318	.626	1.019	14.0%	6
🐾Night165PA	.234	.496	.854	13.8%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty127PA	.345	.646	1.024	8
Runners On112PA	.247	.527	.911	3
RISP57PA	.306	.612	.980	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs80PA	.217	.478	.841	2
1 Out133PA	.270	.548	.909	6
2 Outs74PA	.328	.641	1.046	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Mon.