Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.2%

+718

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Bryan Woo (0.99 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #2Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

10.7%

+832

RBI 1+

34.1%

+193

Hits 1+

61.4%

-159

Hits 2+

19.3%

+418

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

20.6%

95% CI · 20.1–21.1%

+386

Fair odds

1st AB

5.2%

Through AB2

10.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
Wind-1%
vs SP-7%
Lineup+3%
Contact+19%
Statcast+6%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0417 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-7% (×0.93) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind-1% (×0.99)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+19% (×1.19)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+6% (×1.06)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+410

High

+2000

Low

+260

Med

+595

Avg

+661

+410

Low +260High +2000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.8

Proj PA

277

HR / PA

.043

ISO

.210

wOBA

.354

wRC+

129

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.9

Hard%

39.0

FB%

38.0

Pull%

47.0

Soft%

15.3

GB%

46.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

20.7

Hard%

29.7

FB%

31.9

Pull%

48.4

Soft%

19.8

GB%

52.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

12.9

Hard%

43.1

FB%

40.7

Pull%

46.4

Soft%

13.4

GB%

43.1

Home

HR/FB

16.4

Hard%

38.0

FB%

35.7

Pull%

43.9

Soft%

15.2

GB%

47.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

13.2

Hard%

40.3

FB%

41.1

Pull%

51.2

Soft%

15.5

GB%

44.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

T-Mobile Park mild HR boost (+8)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (58% of career HRs)
High barrels/PA (5.9%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.250↑ vs season .23763 PA · 15d

OPS

.766

ISO

.135

RBI

K-BB

10-9

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ SEA	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 370ft · 102.6 EV · 4-Seamer
06-16	@ SEA	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-14	vs SD	4	2	0	1	0	0	.500
06-13	vs SD	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-12	vs SD	3	3	1	1	1	0	2.000
💣 386ft · 108.8 EV · Sinker
06-11	vs SEA	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-10	vs SEA	4	1	0	0	1	1	.250
06-09	vs SEA	5	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball74PA	.156	.308	10.4	53.2	50	20.6
🐾SISinker67PA	.200	.367	7.8	46.0	65	14.0
🐾STSweeper27PA	.292	.276	15.4	46.2	69	28.9
🐾SLSlider50PA	.130	.232	8.8	37.9	62	33.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.207	0.0	16.7	33	17.5	106	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.189	.333	11.9	57.1	52	16.5	95	60

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.222	.292	4.2	37.5	50	4.5	106	30
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.176	.426	11.1	55.6	78	14.9	95	38

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.500	.311	33.3	33.3	83	30.0	106	13
vs RHP	.077	.244	0.0	57.1	57	29.6	95	15

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.182	.243	5.9	35.3	71	29.2	106	23
vs RHP	.173	.224	11.8	47.1	53	30.9	95	32

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

108

vs RHB

vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Henderson.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Confirmed3 of 55 HRs · 5%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 32 of 55 career HRs (58%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.195

Barrel %

8.8

Hard Hit %

45.6

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.310

xBA

.237

Brl / PA %

5.90

Max EV (mph)

111.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.1

Avg EV on HRs

104.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

391

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/11

Crushed (105+ mph)

6/11

Avg LA on HRs

31.2°

Brl / PA %

5.90

Sampled across 11 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Bryan Woo · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
49
xwOBA
.308
Whiff%
20.6
HH%
53.2
BRL%
10.4
Pull%
50
SISinker
Use%
18
xwOBA
.367
Whiff%
14.0
HH%
46.0
BRL%
7.8
Pull%
65
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
.276
Whiff%
28.9
HH%
46.2
BRL%
15.4
Pull%
69
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 27 PA this season.

Career vs Bryan Woo

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

1.666

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Bryan Woo arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	48.9	7.1	42.5	38	.290	17.6
SISinker	18.1	8.5	51.8	56	.345	20.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	13.9	7.7	38.2	69	.257	24.6
SLSlider	12.9	9.1	50.0	59	.254	17.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball49% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.8	45.5	42	.339	16.0	104
vs RHB	5.6	36.1	31	.196	20.5	53

SISinker18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.8	56.2	56	.397	9.5	20
vs RHB	4.7	51.2	56	.329	25.7	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	33.3	83	.293	23.1	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	3.7	33.3	63	.240	27.1	40

SLSlider13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	50.0	56	.234	18.9	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	50.0	75	.405	0.0	4

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .483). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

11 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 5

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FC🐾Cutter3

SISinker2

SLSlider2

STSweeper2

CUCurveball1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 18 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP245PA	.171	.401	.699	9.5%	9
vs LHP93PA	.259	.471	.751	7.5%	6

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home187PA	.209	.429	.728	9.0%	9
🐾Away151PA	.180	.410	.695	8.7%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day153PA	.154	.409	.742	7.3%	5
Night185PA	.229	.429	.688	10.3%	10

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty124PA	.242	.438	.712	8
Runners On141PA	.176	.456	.811	4
RISP67PA	.105	.368	.726	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs122PA	.143	.339	.593	4
1 Out127PA	.262	.505	.844	7
2 Outs89PA	.179	.417	.698	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.