Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

18.7%

+436

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Randy Vásquez (RHP) (1.30 HR/9) · park 136

2+ RBI

14.3%

+601

RBI 1+

37.3%

+168

Hits 1+

61.2%

-158

Hits 2+

19.1%

+423

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

26.4%

95% CI · 25.9–26.9%

+278

Fair odds

1st AB

8.0%

Through AB2

15.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+36%
Temp+5%
vs SP+10%
Contact+15%
SP Contact-4%
Statcast+5%
SP Statcast+8%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Randy Vásquez (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 136)
·90F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0399 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+10% (×1.10) · blended_proj

Park+36% (×1.36)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+15% (×1.15)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+5% (×1.05)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)

SP Statcast allowed+8% (×1.08)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games

Now

+435

High

+830

Low

+365

Med

+550

Avg

+544

+435

Low +365High +830

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

16.0

Proj PA

389

HR / PA

.041

ISO

.206

wOBA

.355

wRC+

127

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.3

Hard%

35.5

FB%

37.9

Pull%

46.0

Soft%

17.5

GB%

44.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

31.6

Hard%

25.4

FB%

30.2

Pull%

49.2

Soft%

22.2

GB%

55.6

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

11.5

Hard%

39.9

FB%

41.2

Pull%

44.6

Soft%

15.5

GB%

39.9

🐾Home

HR/FB

20.5

Hard%

33.3

FB%

35.8

Pull%

42.3

Soft%

17.9

GB%

45.5

Away

HR/FB

13.5

Hard%

38.5

FB%

40.7

Pull%

51.6

Soft%

16.5

GB%

42.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Oriole Park at Camden Yards is a hitter's haven (+36 for LHB)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (58% of career HRs)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (136)
High barrels/PA (5.7%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (13.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.259↑ vs season .23665 PA · 15d

OPS

.755

ISO

.111

RBI

K-BB

8-10

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs SD	3	3	1	1	1	0	2.000
06-11	vs SEA	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-10	vs SEA	4	1	0	0	1	1	.250
06-09	vs SEA	5	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-08	vs SEA	2	1	0	0	3	0	.500
06-07	@ TOR	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-06	@ TOR	4	3	0	0	0	0	.750
06-05	@ TOR	4	1	0	0	1	2	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR49PA	.159	.332	11.1	58.3	44	15.2
🐾FCCuttervR18PA	.600	.399	22.2	33.3	67	42.3
🐾SISinkervR36PA	.094	.380	8.0	52.0	76	14.3
🐾CUCurveballvR16PA	.067	.355	0.0	50.0	92	23.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.207	0.0	16.7	33	17.5	105	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.159	.332	11.1	58.3	44	15.2	87	49

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.600	.399	22.2	33.3	67	42.3	87	18

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.222	.277	4.2	37.5	50	4.7	105	29
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.094	.380	8.0	52.0	76	14.3	87	36

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	1.000	.409	16.7	33.3	67	18.2	105	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	.067	.355	0.0	50.0	92	23.7	87	16

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

136

vs RHB

vs SHB

112

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Henderson.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 32 of 55 career HRs (58%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.195

Barrel %

8.5

Hard Hit %

44.1

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.310

xBA

.236

Brl / PA %

5.70

Max EV (mph)

111.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.1

Avg EV on HRs

104.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

391

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/11

Crushed (105+ mph)

6/11

Avg LA on HRs

31.2°

Brl / PA %

5.70

Sampled across 11 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Randy Vásquez · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.332
Whiff%
15.2
HH%
58.3
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
44
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.399
Whiff%
42.3
HH%
33.3
BRL%
22.2
Pull%
67
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
14
xwOBA
.380
Whiff%
14.3
HH%
52.0
BRL%
8.0
Pull%
76
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Randy Vásquez (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.666

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Randy Vásquez (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	31.1	15.4	45.7	44	.341	14.3
FCCutter	23.7	14.3	42.2	61	.424	13.0
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	13.5	16.7	54.5	60	.450	26.5
CUCurveball	11.1	3.8	50.0	73	.356	13.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	12.7	47.3	51	.349	14.6	72
vs RHB	21.7	47.8	26	.328	15.4	36

FCCutter24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	3.7	33.3	70	.316	14.3	35
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	27.3	54.5	50	.560	9.5	27

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.0	40.0	70	.438	31.2	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.8	56.2	56	.460	20.0	39

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	52.4	67	.330	19.4	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	60.0	100	.473	11.1	8

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .483). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BAL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Camden Yards (333/410/318 ft) · elev 36ft

11 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 5

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FC🐾Cutter3

SISinker2

SLSlider2

STSweeper2

CUCurveball1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP228PA	.169	.401	.699	9.1%	8
vs LHP93PA	.259	.471	.751	7.5%	6

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home178PA	.218	.435	.727	8.9%	9
Away143PA	.168	.405	.699	8.2%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day144PA	.161	.415	.741	7.7%	5
Night177PA	.222	.426	.692	9.4%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty115PA	.257	.457	.727	8
Runners On135PA	.160	.437	.793	3
RISP63PA	.113	.377	.742	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs117PA	.149	.355	.620	4
1 Out121PA	.276	.524	.871	7
2 Outs83PA	.150	.375	.628	3

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-039PA	.263	.605	.964	2
1-017PA	.177	.353	.529	1
0-131PA	.290	.774	1.258	2
2-05PA	.800	1.200	1.600	1
0-240PA	.125	.250	.375	1
3-06PA	—	—	.667	0
1-237PA	.111	.222	.330	1
2-243PA	.095	.238	.401	1
3-253PA	.027	.054	.375	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.