Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.7%

+690

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Burke (1.11 HR/9) · park 107

2+ RBI

11.0%

+812

RBI 1+

34.3%

+191

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.7%

95% CI · 8.4–9.0%

+1052

Fair odds

1st AB

2.5%

Through AB2

4.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+7%
Temp+5%
vs SP+13%
Contact-18%
SP Contact-6%
Statcast-10%
SP Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·87F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0286 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+13% (×1.13) · blended_proj

Park+7% (×1.07)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-18% (×0.82)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-10% (×0.90)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+690

High

+880

Low

+400

Med

+625

Avg

+659

+690

Low +400High +880

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.7

Proj PA

146

HR / PA

.032

ISO

.167

wOBA

.310

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

3.0

Hard%

28.4

FB%

32.7

Pull%

38.2

Soft%

18.6

GB%

44.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

26.7

FB%

34.1

Pull%

35.6

Soft%

17.8

GB%

45.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

29.8

FB%

31.6

Pull%

40.4

Soft%

19.3

GB%

43.9

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

32.7

FB%

37.5

Pull%

26.5

Soft%

10.2

GB%

41.7

Away

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

24.5

FB%

28.3

Pull%

49.1

Soft%

26.4

GB%

47.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Yankee Stadium mild HR boost (+7)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (44% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .658 OPS over last 15 days
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.250→ vs season .25035 PA · 15d

OPS

.658

ISO

.094

RBI

K-BB

6-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CHW	3	1	1	1	0	1.000
06-16	vs CHW	5	3	0	0	1	.600
06-14	@ TOR	4	2	2	0	1	.500
06-13	@ TOR	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	@ CLE	4	1	1	1	0	.500
06-09	@ CLE	4	0	0	0	2	—
06-08	@ CLE	2	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	vs BOS	3	0	0	1	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball27PA	.300	.417	21.4	42.9	57	29.5
🐾CUCurveball11PA	—	.193	0.0	22.2	88	26.7
🐾SLSlider17PA	.059	.177	0.0	33.3	42	38.2
🐾SISinker18PA	—	.374	0.0	27.3	46	13.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.416	.481	27.3	45.5	46	14.3	129	13
vs RHP	.125	.358	0.0	33.3	100	34.8	84	14

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.203	0.0	20.0	80	40.0	84	7

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.071	.182	0.0	33.3	33	35.7	84	14

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.461	0.0	33.3	0	0.0	129	6
vs RHP	—	.327	0.0	25.0	63	16.0	84	12

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

117

🐾vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Volpe.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 4 of 9 career HRs (44%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#6#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Burke · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.417
Whiff%
29.5
HH%
42.9
BRL%
21.4
Pull%
57
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveball
Use%
22
xwOBA
.193
Whiff%
26.7
HH%
22.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
88
SLSlider
Use%
17
xwOBA
.177
Whiff%
38.2
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
42
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 17 PA this season.

Sean Burke arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	36.9	11.8	37.3	48	.305	19.5
CUCurveball	21.7	—	40.5	—	.292	19.1
SLSlider	17.1	5.6	32.4	69	.290	17.4
SISinker	16.0	2.3	34.9	51	.333	11.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.9	40.7	58	.362	17.5	92
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	38.2	32	.219	22.8	64

SLSlider17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	37.5	50	.284	21.7	17
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	75	.295	14.8	38

SISinker16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	50.0	50	.358	19.0	24
vs RHB	0.0	25.9	52	.317	10.5	33

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 19.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #7 (xwOBA .383). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP59PA	.060	.280	.619	—	0
vs LHP32PA	.207	.483	.827	11.5%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home38PA	.084	.306	.569	6.9%	0
Away53PA	.139	.395	.791	3.2%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day29PA	.084	.417	.865	5.3%	0
🐾Night62PA	.127	.327	.617	4.9%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty26PA	.131	.348	.656
Runners On52PA	.070	.326	.711
RISP26PA	—	.333	.795

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs28PA	.116	.308	.558	1
1 Out34PA	.134	.467	.879	0
2 Outs29PA	.087	.261	.606	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.