Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

16.4%

+508

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Anthony Kay (LHP) (1.36 HR/9) · park 107

2+ RBI

13.0%

+667

RBI 1+

36.2%

+176

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.5%

95% CI · 9.1–9.8%

+957

Fair odds

1st AB

2.6%

Through AB2

5.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+7%
Wind+6%
vs SP+7%
Contact-23%
SP Contact+10%
Statcast-15%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Anthony Kay (LHP)

·12 mph wind out to OF
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0283 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+7% (×1.07) · blended_proj

Park+7% (×1.07)

Wind+6% (×1.06)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-23% (×0.77)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+10% (×1.10)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 7 games

Now

+510

High

+895

Low

+675

Med

+760

Avg

+783

+510

Low +675High +895

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.2

Proj PA

178

HR / PA

.029

ISO

.159

wOBA

.306

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

24.5

FB%

41.5

Pull%

39.6

Soft%

24.5

GB%

37.7

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

22.7

FB%

54.5

Pull%

40.9

Soft%

27.3

GB%

36.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

25.8

FB%

32.3

Pull%

38.7

Soft%

22.6

GB%

38.7

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

18.2

FB%

50.0

Pull%

22.7

Soft%

18.2

GB%

36.4

Away

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

29.0

FB%

35.5

Pull%

51.6

Soft%

29.0

GB%

38.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Yankee Stadium mild HR boost (+7)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (44% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .499 OPS over last 15 days
13 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.212↓ vs season .25035 PA · 15d

OPS

.499

ISO

.030

RBI

K-BB

7-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs CHW	5	3	0	0	1	.600
06-14	@ TOR	4	2	2	0	1	.500
06-13	@ TOR	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	@ CLE	4	1	1	1	0	.500
06-09	@ CLE	4	0	0	0	2	—
06-08	@ CLE	2	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	vs BOS	3	0	0	1	0	—
06-05	vs BOS	4	1	0	0	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL10PA	.334	.505	22.2	33.3	33	7.1
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SISinker17PA	—	.349	0.0	20.0	50	13.8
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.334	.505	22.2	33.3	33	7.1	112	10
vs RHP	.125	.332	0.0	33.3	100	34.8	68	13

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.327	0.0	25.0	63	16.0	68	12

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

117

🐾vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Volpe.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 4 of 9 career HRs (44%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#6#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Anthony Kay · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.505
Whiff%
7.1
HH%
33.3
BRL%
22.2
Pull%
33
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweeper
Use%
21
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SISinker
Use%
19
xwOBA
.349
Whiff%
13.8
HH%
20.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50

Anthony Kay (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	25.1	14.3	39.7	56	.395	14.0
STSweeper	20.6	4.2	31.8	67	.313	11.1
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	18.8	10.9	54.9	71	.407	19.2
FCCutter	17.7	17.0	36.1	72	.450	10.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	100	.091	30.8	12
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.8	44.3	54	.436	12.0	86

STSweeper21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	22.2	56	.240	17.8	19
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.7	40.0	73	.365	6.1	24

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.5	40.9	73	.296	20.6	35
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	15.2	66.7	70	.499	17.4	41

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	8.3	25.0	33	.406	14.3	18
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	42.9	86	.472	9.7	45

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 19.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #7 (xwOBA .383). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP58PA	.060	.280	.608	—	0
🐾vs LHP29PA	.154	.423	.768	9.1%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home34PA	.030	.242	.477	4.5%	0
Away53PA	.139	.395	.791	3.2%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day29PA	.084	.417	.865	5.3%	0
🐾Night58PA	.096	.288	.564	2.9%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty25PA	.131	.348	.628
Runners On50PA	.024	.268	.648
RISP26PA	—	.333	.795

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs27PA	.120	.320	.579	1
1 Out31PA	.072	.393	.780	0
2 Outs29PA	.087	.261	.606	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Night · Wed.