Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

17.3%

+480

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Luis Castillo (RHP) (1.18 HR/9) · park 111

2+ RBI

13.5%

+641

RBI 1+

36.6%

+173

Hits 1+

58.5%

-141

Hits 2+

16.7%

+499

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT

32wRC+

🐾As RHB(vs LHP)

100wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the RIGHT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his weaker side.

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

1.8%

95% CI · 1.7–2.0%

+5296

Fair odds

1st AB

0.5%

Through AB2

1.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+11%
Temp+5%
vs SP+5%
Contact-26%
SP Contact+1%
Statcast-17%
SP Statcast+4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Luis Castillo (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 111)
·90F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0067 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+5% (×1.05) · blended_proj

Park+11% (×1.11)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-26% (×0.74)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-17% (×0.83)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

SP Statcast allowed+4% (×1.04)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games

Now

+480

High

+2520

Low

+435

Med

+945

Avg

+1159

+480

Low +435High +2520

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.4

Proj PA

215

HR / PA

.007

ISO

.067

wOBA

.275

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

14.0

FB%

31.9

Pull%

36.0

Soft%

14.7

GB%

51.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

12.8

FB%

25.7

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

10.3

GB%

60.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

14.4

FB%

34.0

Pull%

36.9

Soft%

16.2

GB%

48.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

14.3

FB%

33.8

Pull%

35.7

Soft%

14.3

GB%

52.3

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

13.8

FB%

30.1

Pull%

36.3

Soft%

15.0

GB%

50.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Nationals Park mild HR boost (+11)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (111)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.286↑ vs season .22129 PA · 15d

OPS

.607

ISO

.035

RBI

K-BB

8-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	K	SLG
06-10	@ SF	4	1	2	1	.250
06-09	@ SF	4	1	0	3	.500
06-08	@ SF	3	1	0	1	.333
06-06	@ ARI	3	1	2	0	.333
06-05	@ ARI	5	2	0	1	.400
06-03	vs MIA	2	0	0	0	—
06-02	vs MIA	0	0	0	0	—
06-01	vs MIA	2	1	0	1	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR60PA	.020	.259	20.9	61	21.1
🐾SLSlidervR20PA	—	.125	18.2	55	34.4
🐾SISinkervR26PA	—	.279	23.5	47	17.1
🐾CHChangeupvR31PA	.067	.270	29.2	79	21.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.166	.389	0.0	20.0	30	15.4	100	18
vs RHPTONIGHT	.020	.259	0.0	20.9	61	21.1	32	60

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.125	0.0	18.2	55	34.4	32	20

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.401	0.0	0.0	50	0.0	100	8
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.279	0.0	23.5	47	17.1	32	26

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.173	0.0	0.0	85	29.6	100	19
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.067	.270	0.0	29.2	79	21.6	32	31

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

111

vs RHB

🐾vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Nuñez.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.026

Barrel %

7.5

Hard Hit %

20.0

xwOBA

.267

xBA

.221

Brl / PA %

6.18

Max EV (mph)

105.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.8

Avg EV on HRs

—

Avg HR Distance (ft)

—

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

—

Crushed (105+ mph)

—

Avg LA on HRs

—

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Luis Castillo · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
46
xwOBA
.259
Whiff%
21.1
HH%
20.9
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
61
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 60 PA this season.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.125
Whiff%
34.4
HH%
18.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
55
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 20 PA this season.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.279
Whiff%
17.1
HH%
23.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
47
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 26 PA this season.

Luis Castillo (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	45.7	14.1	49.3	47	.334	18.5
SLSlider	24.7	7.1	42.1	71	.305	13.1
SISinker	17.0	9.6	50.0	65	.431	12.5
CHChangeup	12.5	10.0	44.0	80	.310	7.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY46% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	15.3	54.2	48	.379	15.5	90
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.5	46.2	46	.258	21.3	56

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	55.0	75	.347	13.8	31
vs RHB	4.5	27.3	68	.259	13.2	32

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	22.2	55.6	56	.542	0.0	12
vs RHB	7.0	53.5	67	.407	13.5	51

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	9.1	40.9	77	.324	2.6	23
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	88	.266	18.2	12

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 18.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #1 (xwOBA .360). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP160PA	.021	.201	.454	—	0
vs LHP62PA	.038	.302	.673	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home94PA	.024	.183	.414	—	0
Away128PA	.028	.264	.592	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day111PA	—	.167	.410	—	0
Night111PA	.052	.292	.622	—	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty75PA	—	.185	.478
Runners On101PA	.035	.244	.518
RISP59PA	.042	.313	.646

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs70PA	.050	.300	.624
1 Out82PA	—	.179	.474
2 Outs70PA	.030	.215	.458

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0-029PA	—	.333	.609
1-013PA	—	.167	.321
0-119PA	—	.111	.216
2-07PA	—	.286	.571
0-225PA	.083	.208	.368
3-02PA	—	—	1.000
1-237PA	.054	.270	.486
2-232PA	.032	.188	.344
3-242PA	—	.120	.596

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.