Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

17.3%

+479

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Aaron Nola (RHP) (1.67 HR/9) · park 131

Batting #7Projected lineup

2+ RBI

13.5%

+640

RBI 1+

36.6%

+173

Hits 1+

59.8%

-149

Hits 2+

17.8%

+461

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

16.5%

95% CI · 16.1–16.9%

+507

Fair odds

1st AB

4.6%

Through AB2

9.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+31%
Temp+5%
vs SP+15%
Contact-16%
SP Contact+9%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Aaron Nola (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·88F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0326 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+15% (×1.15) · blended_proj

Park+31% (×1.31)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-16% (×0.84)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-1% (×0.99)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+1075

High

+1100

Low

+625

Med

+748

Avg

+771

+1075

Low +625High +1100

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.4

Proj PA

161

HR / PA

.033

ISO

.157

wOBA

.307

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

5.7

Hard%

35.6

FB%

34.3

Pull%

38.0

Soft%

16.6

GB%

43.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

27.8

FB%

25.0

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

22.2

GB%

55.6

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

6.6

Hard%

37.3

FB%

36.3

Pull%

37.9

Soft%

15.4

GB%

41.1

Home

HR/FB

7.9

Hard%

37.5

FB%

33.9

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

13.4

GB%

45.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

3.1

Hard%

33.3

FB%

34.8

Pull%

38.7

Soft%

20.4

GB%

41.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for LHB)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CU)
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (131)
High barrels/PA (4.5%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.67 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.189↓ vs season .22843 PA · 15d

OPS

.518

ISO

.027

RBI

K-BB

12-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ CIN	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-16	@ CIN	1	0	0	1	1	—
06-15	@ CIN	4	0	0	0	3	—
06-14	vs ATL	2	2	1	2	0	1.000
06-13	vs ATL	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-12	vs ATL	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-11	vs STL	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	vs STL	3	1	0	0	0	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveballvR10PA	—	.399	33.3	50.0	50	31.2
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR80PA	.084	.282	7.7	46.2	58	18.5
🐾SISinkervR21PA	.158	.428	5.9	52.9	41	10.8
🐾CHChangeupvR29PA	.080	.322	4.8	28.6	71	33.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.399	33.3	50.0	50	31.2	84	10

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.250	.245	40.0	60.0	40	28.6	63	12
vs RHPTONIGHT	.084	.282	7.7	46.2	58	18.5	84	80

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.256	0.0	25.0	75	15.0	63	13
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.158	.428	5.9	52.9	41	10.8	84	21

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.080	.322	4.8	28.6	71	33.9	84	29

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

131

vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Baty.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #7Projected2 of 3 HRs · 67%

🐾 Hottest from spot #7 — 2 of 3 career HRs (67%).

🐾

Hot spots:#7#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.092

Barrel %

7.3

Hard Hit %

38.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.296

xBA

.228

Brl / PA %

4.50

Max EV (mph)

111.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.2

Avg EV on HRs

107.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

415

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/3

Avg LA on HRs

27.0°

Brl / PA %

4.50

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Aaron Nola · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
34
xwOBA
.399
Whiff%
31.2
HH%
50.0
BRL%
33.3
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.282
Whiff%
18.5
HH%
46.2
BRL%
7.7
Pull%
58
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.428
Whiff%
10.8
HH%
52.9
BRL%
5.9
Pull%
41
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Aaron Nola (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.100AVG · limited (13 PA)

OPS

.408

RBI

K-BB

3-3

Aaron Nola (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	34.0	—	26.4	—	.232	21.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	24.7	18.0	50.0	56	.450	21.3
SISinker	19.9	10.4	43.5	60	.387	14.6
CHChangeup	12.0	7.1	40.0	71	.275	6.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.2	54.1	62	.504	14.9	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	23.1	46.2	39	.330	27.3	22

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.0	50.0	70	.401	11.3	35
vs RHB	14.3	39.3	54	.374	20.6	36

CHChangeup12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.3	34.8	65	.292	8.7	28
vs RHB	20.0	60.0	100	.187	0.0	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .444). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

SISinker1

KCKnuckle-Curve1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP200PA	.095	.331	.638	8.1%	3
vs LHP45PA	.077	.256	.545	11.5%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home125PA	.107	.366	.686	7.1%	2
🐾Away120PA	.077	.267	.553	10.3%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day106PA	.098	.315	.617	5.3%	1
Night139PA	.088	.320	.624	11.6%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty87PA	.013	.141	.359	0
Runners On89PA	.153	.474	.849	2
RISP49PA	.119	.381	.694	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs86PA	.108	.324	.630	1
1 Out76PA	.057	.286	.562	0
2 Outs83PA	.109	.342	.667	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Thu.