Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

10.5%

+851

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (LHP) (0.96 HR/9) · park 99

2+ RBI

9.8%

+922

RBI 1+

33.3%

+201

Hits 1+

60.5%

-153

Hits 2+

18.5%

+441

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.5%

95% CI · 11.1–11.8%

+772

Fair odds

1st AB

2.9%

Through AB2

5.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-1%
Temp+5%
vs SP-8%
Contact-7%
SP Contact+5%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Martín Pérez (LHP)

·90F game

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0312 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-8% (×0.92) · blended_proj

Park-1% (×0.99)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+1% (×1.01)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games

Now

+850

High

+1080

Low

+455

Med

+700

Avg

+736

+850

Low +455High +1080

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.1

Proj PA

196

HR / PA

.031

ISO

.149

wOBA

.305

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

34.7

FB%

33.6

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

16.0

GB%

44.1

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

30.4

FB%

21.7

Pull%

43.5

Soft%

21.7

GB%

60.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

7.0

Hard%

35.5

FB%

35.8

Pull%

36.4

Soft%

14.9

GB%

40.8

🐾Home

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

35.1

FB%

35.1

Pull%

35.1

Soft%

12.2

GB%

43.2

Away

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

34.3

FB%

31.9

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

20.0

GB%

44.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

90°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (4.8%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.178↓ vs season .23246 PA · 15d

OPS

.396

ISO

.022

RBI

K-BB

14-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs ATL	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-11	vs STL	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	vs STL	3	1	0	0	0	.333
06-09	vs STL	3	0	0	0	2	—
06-07	@ SD	4	1	0	1	1	.500
06-06	@ SD	3	1	1	0	0	.333
06-05	@ SD	4	2	1	0	0	.500
06-03	@ SEA	5	0	0	0	3	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeup27PA	.087	.322	5.0	26.3	75	34.6
🐾SISinkervL12PA	—	.219	0.0	25.0	75	16.7
🐾FCCutter14PA	.071	.338	0.0	41.7	58	19.2
🐾CUCurveball17PA	.200	.454	22.2	63.6	56	32.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.091	.345	5.3	26.3	74	34.0	81	26

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.219	0.0	25.0	75	16.7	65	12
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.167	.427	6.2	56.2	44	8.8	81	19

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.084	.294	0.0	40.0	50	20.0	81	13

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.399	33.3	50.0	50	28.6	81	10

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

111

vs SHB

105

Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Baty.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #7 — 2 of 3 career HRs (67%).

🐾

Hot spots:#7#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.097

Barrel %

7.6

Hard Hit %

38.2

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.295

xBA

.232

Brl / PA %

4.80

Max EV (mph)

111.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.2

Avg EV on HRs

107.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

415

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/3

Avg LA on HRs

27.0°

Brl / PA %

4.80

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

CHChangeup
Use%
33
xwOBA
.322
Whiff%
34.6
HH%
26.3
BRL%
5.0
Pull%
75
SISinkervs LHP
Use%
30
xwOBA
.219
Whiff%
16.7
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 12 PA this season.
FCCutter
Use%
22
xwOBA
.338
Whiff%
19.2
HH%
41.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
58

Career vs Martín Pérez (LHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

1.167

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Martín Pérez (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.8	8.3	23.6	83	.270	18.3
SISinker	29.5	8.9	49.0	75	.403	11.6
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.5	7.7	45.7	49	.302	30.0
CUCurveball	9.7	0.0	50.0	80	.325	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	14.3	28.6	86	.161	21.3	19
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.5	22.6	83	.302	15.3	70

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	36.7	77	.437	6.5	36
vs RHB	7.7	57.7	73	.370	14.0	39

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	25	.128	21.4	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	51.4	51	.329	33.3	51

CUCurveball10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	40.0	80	.412	—	5

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .444). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYM)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citi Field (335/408/330 ft) · elev 33ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

SISinker1

KCKnuckle-Curve1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP191PA	.098	.329	.618	8.5%	3
🐾vs LHP42PA	.081	.270	.556	11.5%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home121PA	.110	.355	.653	7.6%	2
Away112PA	.080	.280	.559	10.4%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day102PA	.100	.300	.575	5.4%	1
Night131PA	.091	.333	.633	12.2%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty84PA	.013	.143	.345	0
Runners On82PA	.164	.479	.837	2
RISP46PA	.129	.385	.696	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs82PA	.110	.329	.613	1
1 Out72PA	.060	.284	.548	0
2 Outs79PA	.114	.343	.659	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-029PA	.296	.815	1.332	2
1-010PA	.100	.500	.900	0
0-119PA	.105	.316	.526	0
2-05PA	—	—	—	0
0-222PA	—	.045	.091	0
3-04PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-240PA	.075	.225	.375	1
2-236PA	.083	.250	.417	0
3-249PA	.027	.211	.578	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.