Home Run
11.8%
+746
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 91
2+ RBI
10.5%
+853
RBI 1+
33.9%
+195
Hits 1+
63.7%
-175
Hits 2+
21.5%
+365
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter8.9%
95% CI · 8.5–9.2%
+1029
Fair odds
1st AB
2.1%
Through AB2
4.4%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park-9%
- Discipline-1%
⚠ Thin blended HR rate
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0247 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher
Park-9% (×0.91)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline-1% (×0.99)
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-14 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
1.4
Proj PA
73
HR / PA
.019
ISO
.114
wOBA
.284
wRC+
79
Why this pick
3.0 🐾LEAN
- Globe Life Field suppresses HRs (91)
- 84°F — ball flies in warm air
- Park drag (91)
- High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.400↑ vs season .25011 PA · 15d
OPS
.855
ISO
—
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
4-1
Game Log · Last 3
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-14 | @ BOS | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .500 |
| 06-13 | @ BOS | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .250 |
| 06-03 | @ STL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .500 |
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
94
🐾vs RHB
91
vs SHB
92
Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Freeman.
Season Statcast
Barrel %
7.5
xBA
.250
Brl / PA %
6.18
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .365). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
3
games since last HR
11
PAs since last HR
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP5PA | — | .500 | 1.100 | 0 |
| vs LHP6PA | — | .333 | .666 | 0 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away11PA | — | .400 | .855 | 0 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day4PA | — | .250 | .500 | 0 |
| 🐾Night7PA | — | .500 | 1.071 | 0 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty5PA | — | .500 | 1.100 | 0 |
| Runners On5PA | — | .400 | .800 | 0 |
| RISP3PA | — | — | — | 0 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs4PA | — | .500 | 1.000 | 0 |
| 1 Out2PA | — | .500 | 1.000 | 0 |
| 2 Outs5PA | — | .250 | .650 | 0 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Mon.