Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

16.2%

+517

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Zack Wheeler (RHP) (1.12 HR/9) · park 131

2+ RBI

12.9%

+674

RBI 1+

36.1%

+177

Hits 1+

55.6%

-125

Hits 2+

14.3%

+597

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

20.1%

95% CI · 19.6–20.5%

+398

Fair odds

1st AB

5.0%

Through AB2

9.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+31%
vs SP-13%
Contact+15%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast+21%
SP Statcast-1%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Zack Wheeler (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0321 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-13% (×0.87) · blended_proj

Park+31% (×1.31)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+15% (×1.15)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+21% (×1.21)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed-1% (×0.99)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games · 2 HR

Now

+750

High

+825

Low

+475

Med

+702

Avg

+694

🐾🐾+750

Low +475🐾 HR money zoneHigh +825

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+6402026-05-29vs NYMbook line

AwayBat 7thoff RHPSplitter

🐾+7902026-05-21vs ATLbook line

HomeBat 7thoff RHP4-Seamer

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.6

Proj PA

242

HR / PA

.031

ISO

.160

wOBA

.304

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

15.4

Hard%

46.9

FB%

40.2

Pull%

31.6

Soft%

10.2

GB%

40.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

55.6

FB%

11.1

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

0.0

GB%

55.6

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

15.8

Hard%

46.1

FB%

43.2

Pull%

31.5

Soft%

11.2

GB%

38.6

Home

HR/FB

15.8

Hard%

50.0

FB%

34.5

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

8.9

GB%

38.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

15.0

Hard%

42.9

FB%

47.6

Pull%

23.8

Soft%

11.9

GB%

42.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for LHB)
13.3% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Park boost (131)
Elite barrel% (13.3)
High barrels/PA (6.9%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.154↓ vs season .20631 PA · 15d

OPS

.604

ISO

.192

RBI

K-BB

9-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ PIT	5	1	0	2	0	1	.400
06-11	vs ARI	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	vs ARI	3	1	1	3	0	0	1.333
💣 370ft · 110.2 EV · Slider
06-09	vs ARI	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	vs TB	2	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	vs TB	3	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-03	@ WSH	2	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-02	@ WSH	2	0	0	0	2	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR49PA	.225	.344	15.4	57.7	35	22.5
🐾SISinkervR16PA	.072	.302	0.0	40.0	50	9.1
🐾STSweepervR9PA	—	.127	0.0	33.3	100	42.9
🐾FSSplit-FingervR11PA	.545	.368	33.3	83.3	83	50.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.225	.344	15.4	57.7	35	22.5	81	49

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.249	33.3	33.3	67	14.3	62	9
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.072	.302	0.0	40.0	50	9.1	81	16

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.240	0.0	0.0	0	50.0	62	9
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.127	0.0	33.3	100	42.9	81	9

FSSplit-Finger

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.545	.368	33.3	83.3	83	50.0	81	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

131

vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Caissie.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #6 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.167

Barrel %

13.3

Hard Hit %

45.9

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.291

xBA

.206

Brl / PA %

6.90

Max EV (mph)

112.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.9

Avg EV on HRs

106.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

391

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/3

Avg LA on HRs

25.0°

Brl / PA %

6.90

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Zack Wheeler · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
39
xwOBA
.344
Whiff%
22.5
HH%
57.7
BRL%
15.4
Pull%
35
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.302
Whiff%
9.1
HH%
40.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
STSweepervs RHP
Use%
14
xwOBA
.127
Whiff%
42.9
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
100

Career vs Zack Wheeler (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Zack Wheeler (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	38.9	9.1	43.2	46	.244	22.7
SISinker	16.7	10.3	35.9	49	.321	14.3
STSweeper	13.5	5.9	23.5	71	.341	17.1
FSSplit-Finger	12.7	4.2	29.2	75	.257	19.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	41.2	47	.258	19.1	53
vs RHB	10.0	50.0	40	.208	31.0	20

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.117	15.4	6
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	40.0	51	.354	13.6	39

STSweeper14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	71	.633	0.0	8
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	70	.204	20.7	17

FSSplit-Finger13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.3	31.6	74	.326	9.4	22
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	20.0	80	.119	42.9	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #1 (xwOBA .519). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CHChangeup1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

FSSplitter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 27 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP161PA	.182	.399	.672	13.5%	6
vs LHP28PA	.080	.280	.566	8.3%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home103PA	.165	.396	.678	13.6%	3
🐾Away86PA	.169	.364	.631	11.9%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day75PA	.167	.431	.711	19.0%	2
Night114PA	.167	.344	.616	8.5%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty63PA	.052	.175	.381	1
Runners On87PA	.264	.553	.875	4
RISP62PA	.157	.451	.790	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs58PA	.173	.365	.624	2
1 Out68PA	.213	.508	.817	2
2 Outs63PA	.110	.255	.509	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Mon.