Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.0%

+810

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Parker Messick (0.90 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #4Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

10.0%

+896

RBI 1+

33.5%

+199

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.1%

95% CI · 9.8–10.4%

+891

Fair odds

1st AB

2.5%

Through AB2

5.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
vs SP-5%
Contact-22%
SP Contact+1%
Statcast-14%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0356 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-22% (×0.78)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-14% (×0.86)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games

Now

+540

High

+1005

Low

+460

Med

+792

Avg

+758

+540

Low +460High +1005

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.3

Proj PA

207

HR / PA

.040

ISO

.185

wOBA

.339

wRC+

114

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

39.2

FB%

33.8

Pull%

37.7

Soft%

14.6

GB%

44.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

48.1

FB%

31.5

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

7.4

GB%

44.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

3.7

Hard%

32.9

FB%

35.5

Pull%

36.8

Soft%

19.7

GB%

44.7

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

30.5

FB%

32.2

Pull%

30.5

Soft%

10.2

GB%

47.5

Away

HR/FB

8.0

Hard%

46.5

FB%

35.2

Pull%

43.7

Soft%

18.3

GB%

42.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Parker Messick stingy: only 0.90 HR/9
Crushes 3/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, CH, SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (42% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.024 OPS over last 15 days
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.353↑ vs season .25039 PA · 15d

OPS

1.024

ISO

.235

RBI

K-BB

4-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CLE	1	1	0	1	0	0	2.000
06-16	vs CLE	2	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-14	vs PHI	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-13	vs PHI	0	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-12	vs PHI	1	0	0	0	2	0	—
06-10	@ ATH	3	2	0	1	1	0	.667
06-09	@ ATH	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	@ ATH	6	4	1	4	0	0	1.500
💣 420ft · 101.1 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball30PA	.375	.452	11.5	47.6	35	14.3
🐾CHChangeup10PA	.223	.436	0.0	55.6	60	7.1
🐾SISinker22PA	.100	.390	0.0	55.6	48	8.8
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.572	.581	15.4	53.8	46	5.3	304	18
vs RHP	.266	.348	7.7	46.2	23	13.3	92	17

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.333	.472	0.0	100.0	67	20.0	304	6
vs RHP	—	.399	0.0	0.0	50	11.1	92	6

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.500	.436	0.0	75.0	75	0.0	304	5
vs RHP	—	.344	0.0	52.9	41	9.7	92	21

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Vaughn.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Confirmed10 of 24 HRs · 42%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 10 of 24 career HRs (42%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.3

Avg EV on HRs

106.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

418

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/2

Avg LA on HRs

25.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Parker Messick · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
31
xwOBA
.452
Whiff%
14.3
HH%
47.6
BRL%
11.5
Pull%
35
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
25
xwOBA
.436
Whiff%
7.1
HH%
55.6
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
60
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinker
Use%
17
xwOBA
.390
Whiff%
8.8
HH%
55.6
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
48
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Parker Messick arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.3	8.2	36.2	43	.230	25.0
CHChangeup	24.7	7.7	23.9	60	.234	24.8
SISinker	16.9	5.0	49.1	62	.415	7.1
CUCurveball	11.1	4.2	9.5	63	.252	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	38.9	44	.214	25.8	29
vs RHB	7.3	41.8	42	.236	22.8	91

CHChangeup25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	60.0	80	.256	29.4	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	8.5	25.5	57	.231	25.5	87

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	28.0	60	.328	8.3	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	60.0	63	.475	0.0	37

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	11.1	67	.159	0.0	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.7	26.7	60	.312	0.0	16

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .544). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 22 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP70PA	.078	.344	.673	3.0%	1
vs LHP42PA	.372	.886	1.481	8.6%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home60PA	.117	.392	.775	5.4%	0
Away52PA	.250	.688	1.169	4.3%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day46PA	.214	.595	1.030	4.7%	1
Night66PA	.158	.491	.915	5.1%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty35PA	.241	.724	1.295	1
Runners On60PA	.204	.519	.902	1
RISP39PA	.171	.457	.816	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs34PA	.107	.357	.739	0
1 Out42PA	.195	.639	1.163	0
2 Outs36PA	.228	.571	.932	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.