Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

7.7%

+1194

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trevor McDonald (RHP) (0.69 HR/9) · park 75

2+ RBI

8.3%

+1112

RBI 1+

31.9%

+214

Hits 1+

62.1%

-164

Hits 2+

20.0%

+401

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.9%

95% CI · 12.6–13.3%

+673

Fair odds

1st AB

2.8%

Through AB2

5.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-25%
vs SP-18%
Contact-2%
SP Contact+11%
Statcast+16%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0406 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-18% (×0.82) · blended_proj

Park-25% (×0.75)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-2% (×0.98)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+16% (×1.16)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games · 1 HR

Now

+1195

High

+1065

Low

+355

Med

+655

Avg

+671

🐾+1195

Low +355🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1065

BELOW ZONEspot score 53

Longer price than he's homered at (+500 to +500). Model sees less pop tonight.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

14.9

Proj PA

353

HR / PA

.042

ISO

.203

wOBA

.349

wRC+

123

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.9

Hard%

39.8

FB%

39.4

Pull%

35.9

Soft%

15.5

GB%

40.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

39.2

FB%

29.4

Pull%

45.1

Soft%

13.7

GB%

49.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

10.7

Hard%

40.0

FB%

43.4

Pull%

32.3

Soft%

16.2

GB%

37.2

Home

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

40.0

FB%

33.3

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

15.6

GB%

43.3

🐾Away

HR/FB

7.3

Hard%

39.6

FB%

45.6

Pull%

38.5

Soft%

15.4

GB%

37.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Oracle Park suppresses HRs (75)
Trevor McDonald stingy: only 0.69 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (54% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .942 OPS over last 15 days
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (75)
High barrels/PA (6.7%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.69 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.347↑ vs season .24156 PA · 15d

OPS

.942

ISO

.184

RBI

K-BB

15-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ SF	3	1	1	3	1	1	1.333
06-11	@ COL	4	2	0	1	0	0	.500
06-10	@ COL	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-09	@ COL	3	1	1	1	1	1	1.333
💣 424ft · 105.6 EV · 4-Seamer
06-07	vs SF	5	1	0	0	0	2	.200
06-06	vs SF	4	2	0	0	1	2	.500
06-05	vs SF	3	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-04	vs ATH	3	1	0	0	1	1	.667

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR30PA	.261	.559	19.0	52.4	57	22.5
🐾SLSlidervR23PA	.191	.198	11.1	33.3	67	43.5
🐾CHChangeupvR33PA	.071	.238	0.0	23.5	71	43.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.174	.412	17.6	47.1	65	13.0	107	32
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.261	.559	19.0	52.4	57	22.5	130	30

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.143	.228	0.0	40.0	80	43.3	107	16
vs RHPTONIGHT	.191	.198	11.1	33.3	67	43.5	130	23

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.071	.238	0.0	23.5	71	43.4	130	33

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

100

vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Busch.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 20 of 37 career HRs (54%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.150

Barrel %

11.0

Hard Hit %

43.1

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.349

xBA

.241

Brl / PA %

6.70

Max EV (mph)

108.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.9

Avg EV on HRs

106.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

399

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/5

Avg LA on HRs

28.4°

Brl / PA %

6.70

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trevor McDonald · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
58
xwOBA
.559
Whiff%
22.5
HH%
52.4
BRL%
19.0
Pull%
57
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.198
Whiff%
43.5
HH%
33.3
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
67
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 23 PA this season.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
13
xwOBA
.238
Whiff%
43.4
HH%
23.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
71
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 33 PA this season.

Career vs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

2-0

Trevor McDonald (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	57.5	3.5	41.8	57	.303	23.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	28.9	4.3	40.9	57	.267	24.2
CHChangeup	13.2	20.0	30.0	60	.375	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker58% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.2	43.8	63	.329	21.1	60
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.6	42.1	50	.274	26.5	54

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	13	.335	22.2	19
vs RHB	6.7	46.7	80	.216	23.1	24

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	22.2	33.3	56	.421	24.1	17
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .455). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

SISinker1

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP212PA	.170	.426	.803	11.2%	6
vs LHP92PA	.135	.378	.748	11.8%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home148PA	.192	.480	.872	13.0%	4
🐾Away156PA	.128	.344	.703	9.6%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day134PA	.177	.434	.792	13.7%	4
🐾Night170PA	.146	.394	.782	9.1%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty95PA	.151	.354	.691	3
Runners On145PA	.164	.443	.815	4
RISP88PA	.155	.493	.925	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs104PA	.159	.439	.852	2
1 Out104PA	.184	.425	.781	3
2 Outs96PA	.135	.370	.724	3

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-041PA	.282	.667	1.057	2
1-017PA	.250	.500	.794	1
0-122PA	—	.286	.558	0
2-05PA	—	.250	.450	0
0-219PA	.053	.211	.368	0
3-012PA	—	—	.917	0
1-239PA	.026	.184	.364	0
2-249PA	.163	.347	.531	1
3-255PA	.200	.371	.844	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.