Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

7.5%

+1236

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Drohan (0.64 HR/9) · park 84

Batting #1Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

8.1%

+1132

RBI 1+

31.7%

+215

Hits 1+

61.1%

-157

Hits 2+

19.0%

+427

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.3%

95% CI · 5.1–5.6%

+1784

Fair odds

1st AB

1.4%

Through AB2

2.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-16%
vs SP-5%
Lineup+3%
Contact+4%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast-15%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Big bats hitting behind
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0213 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park-16% (×0.84)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+4% (×1.04)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+725

High

+2605

Low

+510

Med

+738

Avg

+866

+725

Low +510High +2605

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.9

Proj PA

257

HR / PA

.027

ISO

.150

wOBA

.313

wRC+

100

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

31.2

FB%

40.2

Pull%

41.4

Soft%

15.6

GB%

41.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

4.2

Hard%

28.8

FB%

42.1

Pull%

30.5

Soft%

22.0

GB%

52.6

vs RHP

HR/FB

12.0

Hard%

32.3

FB%

39.4

Pull%

46.5

Soft%

12.6

GB%

37.0

Home

HR/FB

3.1

Hard%

31.0

FB%

37.2

Pull%

37.9

Soft%

13.8

GB%

44.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

31.3

FB%

42.9

Pull%

44.4

Soft%

17.2

GB%

39.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

American Family Field suppresses HRs (84)
Shane Drohan stingy: only 0.64 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Park drag (84)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.64 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.136↓ vs season .23551 PA · 15d

OPS

.528

ISO

.137

RBI

K-BB

10-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ MIL	3	1	1	0	.667
06-16	@ MIL	3	0	1	0	—
06-13	vs DET	3	1	1	1	.333
06-12	vs DET	4	0	0	1	—
06-10	vs NYY	3	1	1	1	.333
06-09	vs NYY	4	0	1	2	—
06-08	vs NYY	4	0	1	2	—
06-07	@ TEX	3	0	1	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball63PA	.158	.277	3.9	34.7	51	16.1
🐾SISinker39PA	.167	.420	9.4	51.9	55	19.1
🐾SLSlider25PA	.136	.309	6.7	20.0	40	40.0
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.236	.187	7.7	46.2	69	27.1	59	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.186	.310	2.6	34.2	45	6.4	139	49

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.050	.376	5.9	47.1	44	16.7	59	26
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.534	.481	13.3	66.7	67	15.4	139	18

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.300	.402	16.7	16.7	17	60.0	59	11
vs RHP	—	.247	0.0	22.2	56	30.4	139	15

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Bazzana.

Season Statcast

ISO

.153

Barrel %

3.3

Hard Hit %

35.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.309

xBA

.235

Brl / PA %

2.20

Max EV (mph)

108.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

112.4

Avg EV on HRs

103.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

386

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/4

Avg LA on HRs

29.8°

Brl / PA %

2.20

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Drohan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
28
xwOBA
.277
Whiff%
16.1
HH%
34.7
BRL%
3.9
Pull%
51
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 63 PA this season.
SISinker
Use%
22
xwOBA
.420
Whiff%
19.1
HH%
51.9
BRL%
9.4
Pull%
55
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlider
Use%
20
xwOBA
.309
Whiff%
40.0
HH%
20.0
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
40

Shane Drohan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	27.8	12.0	50.0	44	.252	22.7
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.6	13.9	47.2	58	.344	25.0
SLSlider	19.6	3.0	25.8	70	.218	24.6
FCCutter	14.3	10.3	28.0	66	.352	8.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	15.4	38.5	54	.344	19.2	21
vs RHB	8.3	50.0	33	.183	23.5	28

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	42.9	79	.302	14.3	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.0	46	.370	33.3	25

SLSlider20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.5	27.3	64	.213	31.4	33
vs RHB	0.0	27.3	82	.230	12.5	16

FCCutter14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	16.7	16.7	83	.349	0.0	7
vs RHB	8.7	34.8	61	.353	9.1	25

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .583). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SISinker1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP119PA	.196	.480	.858	3.4%	3
vs LHP63PA	.073	.255	.541	7.0%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home95PA	.123	.370	.728	1.6%	1
🐾Away87PA	.184	.434	.767	7.1%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day72PA	.127	.444	.847	5.2%	1
Night110PA	.170	.372	.681	4.1%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty53PA	.120	.360	.643	1
Runners On68PA	.204	.463	.860	2
RISP35PA	.111	.296	.639	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs77PA	.152	.394	.732	2
1 Out51PA	.182	.455	.828	1
2 Outs54PA	.128	.362	.695	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.