Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.1%

+666

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Mike Burrows (RHP) (2.09 HR/9) · park 79

2+ RBI

11.2%

+794

RBI 1+

34.5%

+190

Hits 1+

63.2%

-171

Hits 2+

21.0%

+377

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.3%

95% CI · 14.9–15.7%

+552

Fair odds

1st AB

4.5%

Through AB2

8.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-21%
Wind+9%
Temp+5%
vs SP+27%
Contact-7%
SP Contact+13%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Mike Burrows (RHP)

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·15 mph wind out to OF
·92F game
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0375 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+27% (×1.27) · blended_proj

Park-21% (×0.79)

Wind+9% (×1.09)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+1% (×1.01)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+13% (×1.13)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games

Now

+665

High

+1020

Low

+375

Med

+690

Avg

+664

+665

Low +375High +1020

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.2

Proj PA

369

HR / PA

.036

ISO

.181

wOBA

.332

wRC+

107

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

6.0

Hard%

36.3

FB%

50.0

Pull%

44.8

Soft%

17.9

GB%

30.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

23.6

FB%

49.1

Pull%

45.5

Soft%

27.3

GB%

34.5

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

8.2

Hard%

41.1

FB%

50.3

Pull%

44.5

Soft%

14.4

GB%

28.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

3.9

Hard%

40.0

FB%

51.0

Pull%

48.0

Soft%

16.0

GB%

33.0

Away

HR/FB

8.2

Hard%

32.7

FB%

49.0

Pull%

41.6

Soft%

19.8

GB%

27.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Kauffman Stadium suppresses HRs (79)
Mike Burrows is leaky — 2.09 HR/9 allowed
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (94% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .833 OPS over last 15 days
93°F — ball flies in warm air
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (79)
High barrels/PA (5.3%)
Pitcher HR-prone (2.09 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.309↑ vs season .24763 PA · 15d

OPS

.833

ISO

.127

RBI

K-BB

8-8

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs HOU	4	1	1	0	0	.250
06-11	vs TEX	3	1	0	1	1	.333
06-10	vs TEX	4	1	0	1	1	.250
06-09	vs TEX	4	1	1	0	0	.500
06-07	@ MIN	4	2	0	0	1	.750
06-06	@ MIN	5	2	0	0	0	.400
06-05	@ MIN	3	1	1	0	0	.667
06-04	@ MIN	4	0	0	1	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR91PA	.141	.341	13.6	47.0	53	6.2
🐾CHChangeupvR22PA	.286	.343	6.2	43.8	69	25.5
🐾SLSlidervR13PA	—	.297	10.0	30.0	60	10.7
🐾CUCurveballvR10PA	.112	.386	0.0	50.0	100	12.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.125	.273	0.0	31.2	44	11.6	13	27
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.141	.341	13.6	47.0	53	6.2	110	91

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.286	.343	6.2	43.8	69	25.5	110	22

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.189	0.0	36.4	64	21.7	13	16
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.297	10.0	30.0	60	10.7	110	13

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.112	.386	0.0	50.0	100	12.0	110	10

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Pasquantino.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 47 of 50 career HRs (94%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.129

Barrel %

7.5

Hard Hit %

38.8

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.319

xBA

.247

Brl / PA %

5.30

Max EV (mph)

108.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.1

Avg EV on HRs

104.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

398

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/5

Avg LA on HRs

26.6°

Brl / PA %

5.30

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Mike Burrows · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.341
Whiff%
6.2
HH%
47.0
BRL%
13.6
Pull%
53
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.343
Whiff%
25.5
HH%
43.8
BRL%
6.2
Pull%
69
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
15
xwOBA
.297
Whiff%
10.7
HH%
30.0
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
60

Mike Burrows (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.8	16.7	50.8	52	.434	14.3
CHChangeup	27.5	3.2	27.1	76	.281	18.6
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	15.3	6.1	31.1	59	.301	21.8
CUCurveball	14.6	24.0	45.5	68	.319	17.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	18.0	56.0	50	.441	13.0	66
vs RHB	12.5	50.0	56	.416	14.7	23

CHChangeup28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	3.6	23.6	75	.300	10.8	71
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	57.1	86	.216	34.3	22

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	38.1	67	.411	24.2	32
vs RHB	0.0	25.0	54	.191	13.3	32

CUCurveball15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	26.7	46.7	73	.391	15.4	20
vs RHB	20.0	30.0	60	.237	18.4	18

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .488). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SI🐾Sinker2

CHChangeup1

FCCutter1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP205PA	.166	.423	.769	10.0%	6
vs LHP83PA	.039	.184	.401	1.6%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home148PA	.112	.304	.595	6.0%	2
Away140PA	.143	.397	.726	9.0%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day116PA	.157	.412	.731	9.5%	3
🐾Night172PA	.108	.309	.611	6.3%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty103PA	.234	.478	.818	4
Runners On127PA	.056	.280	.595	1
RISP86PA	.043	.246	.560	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs98PA	.103	.330	.626	2
1 Out69PA	.178	.482	.873	2
2 Outs121PA	.121	.299	.572	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-035PA	.085	.314	.543	0
1-014PA	.154	.385	.599	0
0-131PA	.133	.400	.658	1
2-08PA	1.125	1.500	1.875	3
0-220PA	—	—	—	0
3-04PA	2.000	3.000	4.000	0
1-234PA	.030	.242	.448	0
2-244PA	.182	.455	.727	2
3-243PA	.069	.241	.683	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.