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Dominic CanzoneLHB
SEA
📅 Tomorrow2:05 PM MT · Nationals Park
Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
17.3%
+478
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Cade Cavalli (RHP) (0.65 HR/9) · park 111
2+ RBI
13.5%
+640
RBI 1+
36.6%
+173
Hits 1+
69.9%
-232
Hits 2+
28.3%
+253
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
22.5%
95% CI · 22.1–23.0%
+344
Fair odds
1st AB
5.2%
Through AB2
10.2%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
  • Park+11%
  • Temp+5%
  • vs SP-24%
  • Contact+19%
  • SP Contact-7%
  • Statcast+24%
  • SP Statcast-2%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Cade Cavalli (RHP)
  • ·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
  • ·HR-friendly park (factor 111)
  • ·90F game
  • ·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0415 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-24% (×0.76) · blended_proj
Park+11% (×1.11)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+19% (×1.19)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)
SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)
Discipline-1% (×0.99)
HR Odds History
Price range · 15 games · 2 HR
Now
+480
High
+815
Low
+335
Med
+545
Avg
+560
🐾🐾+480
Low +335🐾 HR money zoneHigh +815
🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
10.3
Proj PA
230
HR / PA
.045
ISO
.202
wOBA
.334
wRC+
118
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
19.6
Hard%
44.5
FB%
38.7
Pull%
40.3
Soft%
11.8
GB%
39.5
vs LHP
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
20.0
FB%
20.0
Pull%
40.0
Soft%
0.0
GB%
60.0
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
20.0
Hard%
45.6
FB%
39.5
Pull%
40.4
Soft%
12.3
GB%
38.6
Home
HR/FB
21.7
Hard%
46.6
FB%
39.7
Pull%
39.7
Soft%
12.1
GB%
39.7
🐾Away
HR/FB
17.4
Hard%
42.6
FB%
37.7
Pull%
41.0
Soft%
11.5
GB%
39.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick
5.0 🐾
ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY
  • Nationals Park mild HR boost (+11)
  • Cade Cavalli stingy: only 0.65 HR/9
  • Elite power: .257 ISO
  • 16.8% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
  • Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, CU)
  • Hot streak: 1.313 OPS over last 15 days
  • 91°F — ball flies in warm air
  • Park boost (111)
  • Elite barrel% (16.8)
  • High barrels/PA (11.8%)
  • Pitcher suppresses HR (0.65 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.405↑ vs season .28944 PA · 15d
OPS
1.313
ISO
.476
HR
5
RBI
8
K-BB
6-2
Game Log · Last 8
DateOppABHHRRBIBBKSLG
06-12@ WSH4213001.750
06-11@ BAL4111011.000
💣 401ft · 101.6 EV · Curveball
06-10@ BAL410000.250
06-09@ BAL100000—
06-08@ BAL3200101.000
06-07@ DET200000—
06-06@ DET4312011.750
💣 451ft · 107.1 EV · 4-Seamer
06-05@ DET300001—
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

PitchISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%
🐾FFvR50PA.334.46523.169.25616.1
🐾CUvR15PA.538.46730.060.09023.8
🐾SIvR18PA.188.40414.335.73616.0
🐾ST——————
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPno sample
vs RHPTONIGHT.334.46523.169.25616.115250
CUCurveball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPno sample
vs RHPTONIGHT.538.46730.060.09023.815215
SISinker
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP—.2520.040.010014.3—7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT.188.40414.335.73616.015218
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
🐾vs LHB
111
vs RHB
78
vs SHB
95

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Canzone.

HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 1 of 4 career HRs (25%).
1
·
2
·
1
3
🐾
1
4
🐾
5
·
1
6
🐾
1
7
🐾
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#3#4#6#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast
ISO
.257
Barrel %
16.8
Hard Hit %
48.7
Pull % (HRs)
100
xwOBA
.380
xBA
.289
Brl / PA %
11.80
Max EV (mph)
114.7
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
109.3
Avg EV on HRs
104.7
Avg HR Distance (ft)
402
HRs in sample
5
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/5
Crushed (105+ mph)
4/5
Avg LA on HRs
27.2°
Brl / PA %
11.80

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Cade Cavalli · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT
  • FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
    Use%
    35
    xwOBA
    .465
    Whiff%
    16.1
    HH%
    69.2
    BRL%
    23.1
    Pull%
    56

    🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

  • CUCurveballvs RHP
    Use%
    30
    xwOBA
    .467
    Whiff%
    23.8
    HH%
    60.0
    BRL%
    30.0
    Pull%
    90

    🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

  • SISinkervs RHP
    Use%
    15
    xwOBA
    .404
    Whiff%
    16.0
    HH%
    35.7
    BRL%
    14.3
    Pull%
    36

    🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Cade Cavalli (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
PitchUse%BRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%
FF34.614.341.348.37518.7
CU⚡ PUT-AWAY29.5—31.9—.26828.4
SI15.24.952.676.34526.9
ST11.64.335.052.32015.2
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball35% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB10.033.353.35716.478
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT25.054.233.41020.743
SISinker15% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT0.060.070.50125.015
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY6.551.677.28525.041
STSweeper12% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB———.27125.08
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT4.334.852.33710.030

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

.18.40.38.29.42.65🐾.33.31.42
🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .653). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (WSH)
CFLFRF336ft402ft335ftFFSIFFSLSL
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Nationals Park (336/402/335 ft) · elev 50ft
5 HRs this season
vs RHP 5vs LHP 0
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2
SL🐾Slider2
SISinker1
Bats L · Pull side: RF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾vs RHP161PA.299.592.93418.2%10
vs LHP13PA—.111.496—0
Location
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
Home85PA.298.6221.03417.2%5
🐾Away89PA.268.512.79316.4%5
Time
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Day65PA.206.534.93418.8%2
Night109PA.327.582.89415.7%8
Base State
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Bases Empty63PA.197.443.7133
Runners On78PA.231.523.9082
RISP42PA.305.611.9682
Outs
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0 Outs52PA.565.8911.2957
1 Out72PA.107.369.6750
2 Outs50PA.244.511.8513
Count
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0-021PA.5711.0001.4293
1-08PA.7501.0001.2502
0-120PA.250.6501.0501
2-02PA———0
0-212PA.091.364.6140
3-03PA——1.0000
1-227PA.222.333.4442
2-227PA.077.231.4160
3-223PA.071.214.6490

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.