Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

17.8%

+463

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Baz (0.88 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #4Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

13.8%

+626

RBI 1+

36.9%

+171

Hits 1+

70.6%

-241

Hits 2+

29.3%

+242

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

24.9%

95% CI · 24.4–25.4%

+302

Fair odds

1st AB

6.9%

Through AB2

13.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
Wind-1%
Contact+21%
SP Contact-7%
Statcast+24%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0430 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind-1% (×0.99)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+21% (×1.21)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+610

High

+1500

Low

+315

Med

+640

Avg

+656

+610

Low +315High +1500

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.2

Proj PA

204

HR / PA

.050

ISO

.217

wOBA

.338

wRC+

123

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

23.4

Hard%

46.0

FB%

36.4

Pull%

41.5

Soft%

10.8

GB%

43.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

50.0

Hard%

40.0

FB%

26.7

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

0.0

GB%

46.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

21.7

Hard%

46.6

FB%

37.3

Pull%

42.2

Soft%

11.8

GB%

43.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

31.0

Hard%

47.0

FB%

34.9

Pull%

44.6

Soft%

12.0

GB%

45.8

Away

HR/FB

17.1

Hard%

45.2

FB%

37.6

Pull%

38.7

Soft%

9.7

GB%

41.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

T-Mobile Park mild HR boost (+8)
Shane Baz stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
Elite power: .282 ISO
15.8% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 3/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, CU, FC)
Hot streak: 1.281 OPS over last 15 days
Elite barrel% (15.8)
High barrels/PA (11.1%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.395↑ vs season .29443 PA · 15d

OPS

1.281

ISO

.421

RBI

K-BB

4-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs BAL	3	2	1	2	1	1	1.667
💣 374ft · 101.9 EV · 4-Seamer
06-16	vs BAL	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-14	@ WSH	3	1	0	0	0	0	.333
06-13	@ WSH	2	1	0	0	1	0	.500
06-12	@ WSH	4	2	1	3	0	0	1.750
💣 395ft · 97.8 EV · Changeup
06-11	@ BAL	4	1	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 401ft · 101.6 EV · Curveball
06-10	@ BAL	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-09	@ BAL	1	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball54PA	.320	.454	20.9	65.9	56	21.4
🐾CUCurveball17PA	.534	.409	30.0	60.0	90	28.6
🐾FCCutter13PA	.600	.491	22.2	44.4	67	20.8
🐾CHChangeup40PA	.111	.263	6.2	29.0	63	35.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.372	.449	21.4	66.7	55	15.3	166	53

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.500	.436	30.0	60.0	90	26.1	166	16

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.600	.491	22.2	44.4	67	20.8	166	13

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.108	.263	6.2	28.1	63	32.5	166	41

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

108

vs RHB

vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Canzone.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Confirmed1 of 4 HRs · 25%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 1 of 4 career HRs (25%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#4#6#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.282

Barrel %

15.8

Hard Hit %

49.6

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.389

xBA

.294

Brl / PA %

11.10

Max EV (mph)

114.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.3

Avg EV on HRs

104.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

402

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/5

Avg LA on HRs

27.2°

Brl / PA %

11.10

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Baz · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
34
xwOBA
.454
Whiff%
21.4
HH%
65.9
BRL%
20.9
Pull%
56
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.409
Whiff%
28.6
HH%
60.0
BRL%
30.0
Pull%
90
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCutter
Use%
18
xwOBA
.491
Whiff%
20.8
HH%
44.4
BRL%
22.2
Pull%
67
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Shane Baz

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

.500

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Shane Baz arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.5	10.0	34.9	39	.364	15.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	—	45.2	—	.291	22.5
FCCutter	17.8	4.8	39.3	66	.352	14.8
CHChangeup	7.7	15.0	38.9	80	.474	4.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball34% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	31.5	43	.403	16.2	76
vs RHB	6.2	43.8	25	.257	14.0	25

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	30.0	90	.457	5.3	17
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.8	40.4	62	.327	21.1	65

CHChangeup8% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.0	35.0	80	.474	4.0	21
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .653). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SL🐾Slider2

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.7 games · 9 PA (3 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP172PA	.303	.600	.955	17.4%	11
vs LHP17PA	—	.250	.721	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home93PA	.312	.650	1.080	15.9%	6
Away96PA	.253	.506	.808	15.9%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day72PA	.191	.524	.941	17.0%	2
Night117PA	.337	.606	.939	15.2%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty66PA	.191	.429	.702	3
Runners On82PA	.218	.522	.912	2
RISP45PA	.282	.590	.946	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs61PA	.558	.923	1.382	8
1 Out75PA	.103	.368	.675	0
2 Outs53PA	.234	.489	.829	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.