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Isaac CollinsSHB
KC
🐾 Tonight5:10 PM MT · Kauffman Stadium
Home Run
14.8%
+575
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Mike Burrows (RHP) (2.09 HR/9) · park 97
2+ RBI
12.2%
+723
RBI 1+
35.4%
+182
Hits 1+
57.9%
-138
Hits 2+
16.2%
+517
Switch Hitter — Batting Side
🐾As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT
107wRC+
As RHB(vs LHP)
30wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his strong side.

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
10.1%
95% CI · 9.7–10.4%
+893
Fair odds
1st AB
2.9%
Through AB2
5.6%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
  • Park-3%
  • Wind+9%
  • Temp+5%
  • vs SP+27%
  • Contact+1%
  • SP Contact+13%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Mike Burrows (RHP)
  • ·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
  • ·15 mph wind out to OF
  • ·92F game
  • ·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
⚠ Thin blended HR rate
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0181 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)+27% (×1.27) · blended_proj
Park-3% (×0.97)
Wind+9% (×1.09)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+1% (×1.01)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)+13% (×1.13)
SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)
Discipline-0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 13 games
Now
+575
High
+1220
Low
+555
Med
+750
Avg
+764
+575
Low +555High +1220
BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
6.2
Proj PA
256
HR / PA
.024
ISO
.146
wOBA
.323
wRC+
101
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
4.7
Hard%
34.8
FB%
49.2
Pull%
40.2
Soft%
20.5
GB%
33.8
vs LHP
HR/FB
4.3
Hard%
32.6
FB%
51.1
Pull%
41.3
Soft%
21.7
GB%
35.6
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
4.9
Hard%
36.0
FB%
48.2
Pull%
39.5
Soft%
19.8
GB%
32.9
🐾Home
HR/FB
8.8
Hard%
37.1
FB%
48.6
Pull%
38.6
Soft%
21.4
GB%
31.4
Away
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
32.3
FB%
50.0
Pull%
41.9
Soft%
19.4
GB%
36.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick
4.0 🐾
STRONG PLAY
  • Mike Burrows is leaky — 2.09 HR/9 allowed
  • Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SL)
  • 93°F — ball flies in warm air
  • 15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
  • High barrels/PA (4.4%)
  • Pitcher HR-prone (2.09 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.237↑ vs season .21849 PA · 15d
OPS
.672
ISO
.052
HR
0
RBI
1
K-BB
11-8
Game Log · Last 8
DateOppABHHRRBIBBKSLG
06-12vs HOU210010.500
06-11vs TEX300001—
06-10vs TEX520102.600
06-09vs TEX300000—
06-07@ MIN300010—
06-06@ MIN210020.500
06-05@ MIN310011.333
06-04@ MIN310010.333
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

PitchISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%
🐾FFvR84PA.066.36910.439.65014.4
🐾CHvR17PA.058.1070.0—5046.4
🐾SLvR14PA.272.38816.783.310046.7
🐾CUvR6PA—.1730.025.010036.4
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP.033.2948.341.76316.33033
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT.066.36910.439.65014.410784
CHChangeup
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES—.2370.033.35644.43013
vs RHPTONIGHT.058.1070.00.05046.410717
SLSlider
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPno sample
vs RHPTONIGHT.272.38816.783.310046.710714
CUCurveball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPno sample
vs RHPTONIGHT—.1730.025.010036.41076
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
79
vs RHB
97
🐾vs SHB
88

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Collins.

HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 2 of 4 career HRs (50%).
1
·
2
2
🐾
3
·
4
·
2
5
🐾
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#2#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast
ISO
.091
Barrel %
7.6
Hard Hit %
38.6
xwOBA
.301
xBA
.218
Brl / PA %
4.40
Max EV (mph)
110.9
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
104.9
Avg EV on HRs
100.0
Avg HR Distance (ft)
377
HRs in sample
3
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/3
Crushed (105+ mph)
0/3
Avg LA on HRs
32.0°
Brl / PA %
4.40

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Mike Burrows · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Tough matchup
  • FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
    Use%
    29
    xwOBA
    .369
    Whiff%
    14.4
    HH%
    39.6
    BRL%
    10.4
    Pull%
    50
  • CHChangeupvs RHP
    Use%
    28
    xwOBA
    .107
    Whiff%
    46.4
    HH%
    0.0
    BRL%
    0.0
    Pull%
    50

    ⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 17 PA this season.

  • SLSlidervs RHP
    Use%
    15
    xwOBA
    .388
    Whiff%
    46.7
    HH%
    83.3
    BRL%
    16.7
    Pull%
    100

    🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Mike Burrows (RHP)
🐾 Tonight's matchup
—AVG · small sample (3 PA)
OPS
.667
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
0-2
Mike Burrows (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
PitchUse%BRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%
FF28.816.750.852.43414.3
CH27.53.227.176.28118.6
SL⚡ PUT-AWAY15.36.131.159.30121.8
CU14.624.045.568.31917.7
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball29% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB18.056.050.44113.066
vs RHB12.550.056.41614.723
CHChangeup28% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT3.623.675.30010.871
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY0.057.186.21634.322
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY15% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT14.338.167.41124.232
vs RHB0.025.054.19113.332
CUCurveball15% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT26.746.773.39115.420
vs RHB20.030.060.23718.418

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

.19.22.20.29.34.28.25.31.35🐾
🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .347). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)
CFLFRF330ft410ft330ftSISLST
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft
3 HRs this season
vs RHP 2vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
SISinker1
SLSlider1
STSweeper1
Bats S · Switch hitter
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾vs RHP159PA.096.328.7087.7%2
vs LHP70PA.078.266.5126.2%1
Location
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Home122PA.126.388.7658.6%3
Away107PA.046.209.5045.8%0
Time
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
Day86PA.128.414.8217.5%2
🐾Night143PA.068.244.5427.0%1
Base State
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Bases Empty57PA.140.280.5262
Runners On120PA.041.281.6450
RISP72PA.035.246.5840
Outs
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0 Outs79PA.097.355.7581
1 Out63PA.096.250.5201
2 Outs87PA.080.307.6401
Count
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0-029PA—.269.5800
1-017PA.059.353.6470
0-117PA.267.6671.0201
2-09PA.500.7501.0831
0-215PA—.133.2670
3-05PA——1.0000
1-233PA.031.152.2730
2-235PA.029.143.2570
3-234PA—.211.7400

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.