Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.8%

+576

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Matthew Liberatore (1.79 HR/9) · park 97

Batting #8Projected lineup

2+ RBI

12.1%

+724

RBI 1+

35.4%

+182

Hits 1+

59.4%

-146

Hits 2+

17.5%

+472

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)

103wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

38wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+).

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.1%

95% CI · 7.7–8.4%

+1142

Fair odds

1st AB

2.2%

Through AB2

4.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind-2%
vs SP+4%
SP Contact+12%
Statcast-2%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0189 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+4% (×1.04) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-2% (×0.98)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+750

High

+4000

Low

+610

Med

+820

Avg

+957

+750

Low +610High +4000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.1

Proj PA

197

HR / PA

.026

ISO

.151

wOBA

.324

wRC+

103

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

5.6

Hard%

35.2

FB%

46.2

Pull%

40.2

Soft%

17.1

GB%

36.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

31.4

FB%

47.1

Pull%

41.4

Soft%

18.6

GB%

39.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

5.2

Hard%

37.2

FB%

45.7

Pull%

39.5

Soft%

16.3

GB%

34.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

40.4

FB%

46.5

Pull%

41.4

Soft%

17.2

GB%

34.3

Away

HR/FB

2.3

Hard%

30.0

FB%

45.8

Pull%

39.0

Soft%

17.0

GB%

38.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Matthew Liberatore is leaky — 1.79 HR/9 allowed
High barrels/PA (4.1%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.79 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.2% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.220↓ vs season .22652 PA · 15d

OPS

.591

ISO

.024

RBI

K-BB

8-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ WSH	3	1	1	0	0	.333
06-16	@ WSH	3	1	2	0	1	.333
06-15	@ WSH	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-14	vs HOU	2	1	0	1	0	.500
06-13	vs HOU	2	0	0	0	0	—
06-12	vs HOU	2	1	0	1	0	.500
06-11	vs TEX	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	vs TEX	5	2	1	0	2	.600

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball122PA	.054	.353	9.1	40.0	53	17.6
🐾SLSlider15PA	.250	.356	12.5	85.7	100	40.9
🐾CUCurveball11PA	—	.168	0.0	50.0	100	45.0
🐾CHChangeup29PA	.035	.161	0.0	18.8	53	48.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.032	.310	7.7	42.3	62	15.4	38	36
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.062	.370	9.8	39.2	49	13.3	103	90

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.214	.358	12.5	87.5	100	42.1	103	17

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.153	0.0	20.0	100	33.3	103	7

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.237	0.0	33.3	56	44.4	38	13
vs RHP	.058	.107	0.0	0.0	50	46.4	103	17

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

vs RHB

🐾vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Collins.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #8Projected0 of 4 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 2 of 4 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.083

Barrel %

6.8

Hard Hit %

39.5

xwOBA

.308

xBA

.226

Brl / PA %

4.10

Max EV (mph)

110.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

104.9

Avg EV on HRs

100.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

377

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/3

Avg LA on HRs

32.0°

Brl / PA %

4.10

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.353
Whiff%
17.6
HH%
40.0
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
53
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
.356
Whiff%
40.9
HH%
85.7
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
100
CUCurveball
Use%
16
xwOBA
.168
Whiff%
45.0
HH%
50.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
100

Career vs Matthew Liberatore

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (4 PA)

OPS

.250

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Matthew Liberatore arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.4	12.5	47.4	48	.449	10.4
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	14.9	43.5	62	.293	27.7
CUCurveball	16.4	13.3	35.7	60	.208	19.8
CHChangeup	15.4	4.4	32.6	67	.383	9.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	42	.613	13.6	19
vs RHB	11.8	47.1	49	.421	10.2	89

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	48.0	60	.332	33.3	40
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	40.9	64	.261	25.6	46

CUCurveball16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	15.4	38.5	62	.209	20.8	31

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.4	31.1	67	.383	13.6	53

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .347). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SISinker1

SLSlider1

STSweeper1

Bats S · Switch hitter

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP169PA	.090	.321	.696	7.1%	2
vs LHP76PA	.073	.261	.504	5.5%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home127PA	.121	.383	.761	7.9%	3
Away118PA	.041	.208	.495	5.1%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day93PA	.120	.413	.826	6.8%	2
🐾Night152PA	.062	.234	.521	6.3%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty60PA	.132	.283	.533	2
Runners On128PA	.039	.272	.624	0
RISP79PA	.032	.238	.563	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs84PA	.090	.348	.750	1
1 Out71PA	.084	.237	.494	1
2 Outs90PA	.077	.308	.641	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.