Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

12.3%

+711

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Andrew Alvarez (LHP) (0.75 HR/9) · park 111

2+ RBI

10.8%

+827

RBI 1+

34.2%

+193

Hits 1+

59.6%

-148

Hits 2+

17.7%

+466

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.5%

95% CI · 12.2–12.9%

+699

Fair odds

1st AB

2.9%

Through AB2

5.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+11%
vs SP-15%
Contact+3%
SP Contact+2%
Statcast+1%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Andrew Alvarez (LHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 111)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0310 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-15% (×0.85) · blended_proj

Park+11% (×1.11)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+1% (×1.01)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+2% (×1.02)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 10 games

Now

+645

High

+1050

Low

+480

Med

+595

Avg

+690

+645

Low +480High +1050

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.4

Proj PA

292

HR / PA

.035

ISO

.173

wOBA

.310

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.4

Hard%

35.9

FB%

51.2

Pull%

46.1

Soft%

9.4

GB%

31.2

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

22.7

FB%

50.0

Pull%

59.1

Soft%

22.7

GB%

40.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

9.3

Hard%

38.7

FB%

51.4

Pull%

43.4

Soft%

6.6

GB%

29.5

Home

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

38.2

FB%

49.3

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

5.9

GB%

32.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

9.7

Hard%

33.3

FB%

53.4

Pull%

41.7

Soft%

13.3

GB%

29.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Nationals Park mild HR boost (+11)
Andrew Alvarez stingy: only 0.75 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (38% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.059 OPS over last 15 days
13 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (111)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.386↑ vs season .22745 PA · 15d

OPS

1.059

ISO

.273

RBI

K-BB

6-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	vs HOU	3	2	0	1	0	0	1.000
06-12	vs HOU	4	2	0	2	0	0	.750
06-11	vs TEX	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs TEX	4	1	0	0	0	0	.500
06-07	@ MIN	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-06	@ MIN	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	@ MIN	4	2	0	0	0	0	.500
06-04	@ MIN	4	2	1	1	0	0	1.250
💣 360ft · 95.5 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SLSlidervL5PA	—	.116	0.0	25.0	75	42.9
🐾CUCurveball11PA	.400	.329	—	55.6	—	20.8
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL13PA	.384	.287	18.2	36.4	64	19.2
🐾SISinkervL5PA	—	.415	20.0	40.0	60	10.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.116	0.0	25.0	75	42.9	87	5
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.143	.259	0.0	14.3	71	17.6	104	8

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.600	.272	25.0	25.0	100	21.4	104	5

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.384	.287	18.2	36.4	64	19.2	87	13
vs RHP	.185	.253	6.7	40.0	49	16.2	104	57

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.415	20.0	40.0	60	10.0	87	5
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.125	.462	12.5	75.0	63	6.2	104	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

111

vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Massey.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 3 of 8 career HRs (38%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.197

Barrel %

7.8

Hard Hit %

43.8

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.283

xBA

.227

Brl / PA %

6.20

Max EV (mph)

108.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

104.1

Avg EV on HRs

103.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

402

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/3

Avg LA on HRs

31.3°

Brl / PA %

6.20

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Andrew Alvarez · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SLSlidervs LHP
Use%
30
xwOBA
.116
Whiff%
42.9
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75
CUCurveball
Use%
28
xwOBA
.329
Whiff%
20.8
HH%
55.6
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
26
xwOBA
.287
Whiff%
19.2
HH%
36.4
BRL%
18.2
Pull%
64

Andrew Alvarez (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SLSlider	29.8	13.3	40.0	60	.406	16.2
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	27.7	0.0	57.1	79	.192	27.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	26.0	7.4	40.7	63	.427	11.1
SISinker	14.0	11.1	55.6	67	.326	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SLSlider30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	12.5	37.5	50	.376	17.4	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	42.9	71	.444	14.3	11

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	57.1	71	.256	23.1	10
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	57.1	86	.163	29.2	22

FF4-Seam Fastball26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	8.3	45.8	63	.444	13.0	31

SISinker14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	60	.282	—	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	25.0	50.0	75	.370	—	5

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .401). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (WSH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Nationals Park (336/402/335 ft) · elev 50ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CHChangeup1

FCCutter1

CUCurveball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 28 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP131PA	.205	.475	.767	6.6%	5
🐾vs LHP30PA	.166	.433	.700	13.6%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home80PA	.267	.587	.916	8.8%	3
🐾Away81PA	.130	.351	.598	6.7%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day64PA	.103	.310	.564	2.1%	1
Night97PA	.255	.564	.873	11.1%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty42PA	.206	.462	.772	1
Runners On83PA	.177	.443	.699	3
RISP45PA	.220	.488	.738	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs59PA	.181	.436	.729	2
1 Out49PA	.160	.455	.761	1
2 Outs53PA	.245	.509	.773	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Mon.