Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

15.5%

+544

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Matthew Liberatore (1.79 HR/9) · park 79

2+ RBI

12.5%

+698

RBI 1+

35.8%

+180

Hits 1+

59.6%

-148

Hits 2+

17.7%

+466

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.4%

95% CI · 11.0–11.7%

+780

Fair odds

1st AB

3.1%

Through AB2

6.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-21%
Wind-2%
vs SP+4%
Contact+3%
SP Contact+15%
Statcast+5%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0305 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+4% (×1.04) · blended_proj

Park-21% (×0.79)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+5% (×1.05)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+15% (×1.15)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+545

High

+1065

Low

+430

Med

+605

Avg

+696

+545

Low +430High +1065

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.3

Proj PA

208

HR / PA

.035

ISO

.175

wOBA

.312

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.2

Hard%

34.0

FB%

45.7

Pull%

50.3

Soft%

8.9

GB%

32.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

20.0

FB%

48.4

Pull%

57.1

Soft%

20.0

GB%

38.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

8.6

Hard%

37.2

FB%

45.2

Pull%

48.7

Soft%

6.4

GB%

31.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

7.3

Hard%

38.0

FB%

45.1

Pull%

54.3

Soft%

4.3

GB%

34.1

Away

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

30.3

FB%

46.3

Pull%

46.5

Soft%

13.1

GB%

31.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Kauffman Stadium suppresses HRs (79)
Matthew Liberatore is leaky — 1.79 HR/9 allowed
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (38% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .805 OPS over last 15 days
Park drag (79)
High barrels/PA (7.0%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.79 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.2% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.293↑ vs season .22742 PA · 15d

OPS

.805

ISO

.219

RBI

K-BB

4-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ WSH	4	1	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 430ft · 105.6 EV · Slider
06-16	@ WSH	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-14	vs HOU	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-13	vs HOU	3	2	0	1	0	0	1.000
06-12	vs HOU	4	2	0	2	0	0	.750
06-11	vs TEX	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs TEX	4	1	0	0	0	0	.500
06-07	@ MIN	1	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball76PA	.208	.262	9.8	37.7	51	17.9
🐾SLSlider15PA	.285	.292	7.7	23.1	69	26.5
🐾CUCurveball12PA	.363	.302	—	55.6	—	24.0
🐾CHChangeup18PA	.167	.309	6.7	33.3	87	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.384	.287	16.7	33.3	58	18.5	86	14
vs RHP	.170	.257	8.2	38.8	49	15.9	99	62

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.116	0.0	25.0	75	42.9	86	5
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.445	.380	11.1	22.2	67	15.0	99	10

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.500	.227	25.0	25.0	100	26.7	99	6

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.176	.327	6.7	33.3	87	18.6	99	17

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Massey.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 3 of 8 career HRs (38%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.205

Barrel %

8.8

Hard Hit %

42.6

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.287

xBA

.227

Brl / PA %

7.00

Max EV (mph)

108.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

104.1

Avg EV on HRs

103.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

402

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/3

Avg LA on HRs

31.3°

Brl / PA %

7.00

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.262
Whiff%
17.9
HH%
37.7
BRL%
9.8
Pull%
51
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 76 PA this season.
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
.292
Whiff%
26.5
HH%
23.1
BRL%
7.7
Pull%
69
CUCurveball
Use%
16
xwOBA
.302
Whiff%
24.0
HH%
55.6
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Career vs Matthew Liberatore

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.666

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Matthew Liberatore arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.4	12.5	47.4	48	.449	10.4
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	14.9	43.5	62	.293	27.7
CUCurveball	16.4	13.3	35.7	60	.208	19.8
CHChangeup	15.4	4.4	32.6	67	.383	9.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	42	.613	13.6	19
vs RHB	11.8	47.1	49	.421	10.2	89

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	48.0	60	.332	33.3	40
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	40.9	64	.261	25.6	46

CUCurveball16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	15.4	38.5	62	.209	20.8	31

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.4	31.1	67	.383	13.6	53

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .401). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CHChangeup1

FCCutter1

CUCurveball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 26 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP140PA	.213	.473	.754	8.0%	6
vs LHP31PA	.166	.433	.700	13.0%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home84PA	.253	.557	.870	10.0%	3
Away87PA	.158	.378	.622	7.6%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day73PA	.136	.333	.572	5.6%	2
🐾Night98PA	.253	.558	.864	11.0%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty45PA	.262	.524	.835	2
Runners On90PA	.165	.412	.651	3
RISP49PA	.200	.444	.673	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs60PA	.181	.436	.729	2
1 Out55PA	.200	.480	.771	2
2 Outs56PA	.232	.482	.732	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.