Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.6%

+761

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Jack Leiter (1.42 HR/9) · park 94

Batting #6Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

10.4%

+863

RBI 1+

33.8%

+196

Hits 1+

59.4%

-146

Hits 2+

17.5%

+472

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)

101wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

85wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+).

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.0%

95% CI · 11.6–12.4%

+734

Fair odds

1st AB

3.1%

Through AB2

6.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Contact+20%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast-12%
SP Statcast+2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0274 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-12% (×0.88)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+535

High

+1255

Low

+400

Med

+575

Avg

+769

+535

Low +400High +1255

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.5

Proj PA

242

HR / PA

.027

ISO

.138

wOBA

.296

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.4

Hard%

31.4

FB%

40.4

Pull%

44.9

Soft%

12.7

GB%

39.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

32.9

FB%

42.9

Pull%

40.5

Soft%

10.1

GB%

36.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.8

Hard%

30.9

FB%

39.4

Pull%

46.6

Soft%

13.7

GB%

40.4

Home

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

28.0

FB%

40.5

Pull%

42.0

Soft%

12.7

GB%

41.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

17.0

Hard%

35.3

FB%

40.2

Pull%

48.1

Soft%

12.8

GB%

37.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

94°F — ball flies in warm air
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.163↓ vs season .22653 PA · 15d

OPS

.593

ISO

.204

RBI

K-BB

4-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ TEX	5	2	0	0	0	0	.600
06-15	@ TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-14	vs STL	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-13	vs STL	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-12	vs STL	4	1	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 382ft · 100.2 EV · Slider
06-11	@ DET	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	@ DET	3	1	0	0	2	0	.333
06-09	@ DET	4	2	1	1	1	0	1.250
💣 364ft · 96.3 EV · Slider

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball76PA	.283	.299	9.1	31.3	58	22.7
🐾SLSlider37PA	.294	.268	0.0	37.9	69	26.3
🐾CHChangeup53PA	—	.192	0.0	17.4	66	25.5
🐾FCCutter20PA	.589	.551	10.5	58.8	68	10.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.200	.228	0.0	25.0	75	20.0	85	17
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.271	.317	10.6	34.0	55	13.7	101	67

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.103	0.0	33.3	67	38.1	85	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.323	.300	0.0	37.9	69	21.5	101	34

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.200	0.0	15.4	58	18.8	85	29
vs RHP	—	.185	0.0	25.0	75	28.4	101	28

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.429	.571	14.3	42.9	86	15.4	85	9
vs RHP	.583	.540	8.3	66.7	58	8.8	101	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

vs RHB

🐾vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Lee.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #6Confirmed0 of 3 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 1 of 3 career HRs (33%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.177

Barrel %

4.7

Hard Hit %

31.1

xwOBA

.277

xBA

.226

Brl / PA %

3.60

Max EV (mph)

108.0

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

104.1

Avg EV on HRs

99.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

364

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/6

Avg LA on HRs

27.0°

Brl / PA %

3.60

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Jack Leiter · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
39
xwOBA
.299
Whiff%
22.7
HH%
31.3
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
58
SLSlider
Use%
18
xwOBA
.268
Whiff%
26.3
HH%
37.9
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
69
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 37 PA this season.
CHChangeup
Use%
18
xwOBA
.192
Whiff%
25.5
HH%
17.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
66
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 53 PA this season.

Career vs Jack Leiter

🐾 Tonight's matchup

1.000AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

2.500

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Jack Leiter arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	38.5	12.7	42.1	52	.319	16.9
SLSlider	18.2	13.5	51.4	62	.354	26.0
CHChangeup	17.5	11.8	34.7	69	.317	18.4
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.1	3.7	34.6	52	.359	34.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	48	.338	21.1	72
vs RHB	6.5	48.4	58	.291	15.3	47

SLSlider18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	19.0	52.4	67	.368	23.7	34
vs RHB	6.2	50.0	56	.317	30.2	33

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	37.1	74	.383	12.1	49
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	56	.205	26.1	28

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	35.0	65	.399	35.3	29
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	28.6	14	.259	33.3	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 34.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .336). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

CUCurveball1

SLSlider1

FCCutter1

Bats S · Switch hitter

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 16 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP187PA	.196	.443	.737	3.8%	8
vs LHP91PA	.136	.358	.658	6.9%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home143PA	.090	.263	.487	4.3%	3
🐾Away135PA	.271	.582	.955	5.4%	8

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day117PA	.187	.421	.714	4.7%	5
Night161PA	.169	.412	.710	4.9%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty99PA	.172	.366	.608	4
Runners On105PA	.125	.396	.713	2
RISP70PA	.129	.468	.868	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs106PA	.196	.423	.709	5
1 Out97PA	.219	.483	.813	5
2 Outs75PA	.099	.324	.591	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.