Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

13.5%

+641

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Matthew Liberatore (LHP) (1.50 HR/9) · park 107

2+ RBI

11.4%

+776

RBI 1+

34.7%

+188

Hits 1+

58.5%

-141

Hits 2+

16.7%

+499

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)

104wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)TONIGHT

79wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits RIGHT-handed vs the LHP — his weaker side.

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.0%

95% CI · 8.7–9.3%

+1010

Fair odds

1st AB

2.4%

Through AB2

4.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+7%
vs SP-2%
Contact-16%
SP Contact+8%
Statcast-11%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Matthew Liberatore (LHP)

·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0271 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj

Park+7% (×1.07)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-16% (×0.84)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-11% (×0.89)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+8% (×1.08)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games · 2 HR

Now

+640

High

+1355

Low

+640

Med

+728

Avg

+775

🐾🐾+640

Low +640🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1355

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.3

Proj PA

356

HR / PA

.023

ISO

.126

wOBA

.293

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

30.6

FB%

38.9

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

11.7

GB%

41.5

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

10.7

Hard%

29.0

FB%

46.7

Pull%

40.3

Soft%

11.3

GB%

33.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

14.9

Hard%

31.3

FB%

35.3

Pull%

44.0

Soft%

11.9

GB%

45.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

5.1

Hard%

22.5

FB%

39.0

Pull%

42.2

Soft%

10.8

GB%

43.0

Away

HR/FB

22.2

Hard%

39.4

FB%

38.7

Pull%

43.6

Soft%

12.8

GB%

39.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Target Field mild HR boost (+7)
Hot streak: .753 OPS over last 15 days

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.196↓ vs season .22157 PA · 15d

OPS

.753

ISO

.294

RBI

K-BB

8-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs STL	4	1	1	1	0	0	1.000
06-11	@ DET	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	@ DET	3	1	0	0	2	0	.333
06-09	@ DET	4	2	1	1	1	0	1.250
💣 364ft · 96.3 EV · Slider
06-07	vs KC	5	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs KC	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	vs KC	4	1	1	2	0	0	1.000
💣 380ft · 104.7 EV · Cutter
06-04	vs KC	5	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL17PA	.200	.228	0.0	25.0	75	21.6
🐾SLSlidervL7PA	—	.103	0.0	33.3	67	38.1
🐾CUCurveballvL10PA	.445	.185	12.5	25.0	63	21.4
🐾CHChangeupvL27PA	—	.189	0.0	12.5	54	19.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.200	.228	0.0	25.0	75	21.6	79	17
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.280	.313	11.1	33.3	58	14.3	104	65

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.103	0.0	33.3	67	38.1	79	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.231	.298	0.0	37.5	67	23.7	104	29

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.445	.185	12.5	25.0	63	21.4	79	10
vs RHP	—	.128	0.0	16.7	33	33.3	104	12

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.189	0.0	12.5	54	19.6	79	27
vs RHP	—	.174	0.0	25.0	75	31.1	104	24

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

107

vs RHB

🐾vs SHB

100

Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Lee.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 1 of 3 career HRs (33%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.172

Barrel %

5.1

Hard Hit %

29.6

xwOBA

.272

xBA

.221

Brl / PA %

3.80

Max EV (mph)

108.0

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

104.1

Avg EV on HRs

99.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

364

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/6

Avg LA on HRs

27.0°

Brl / PA %

3.80

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
33
xwOBA
.228
Whiff%
21.6
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 17 PA this season.
SLSlidervs LHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.103
Whiff%
38.1
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
67
CUCurveballvs LHP
Use%
16
xwOBA
.185
Whiff%
21.4
HH%
25.0
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
63
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 10 PA this season.

Matthew Liberatore (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.1	10.7	47.9	48	.438	9.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	22.3	14.9	43.5	62	.293	28.0
CUCurveball	15.8	7.7	33.3	54	.208	19.2
CHChangeup	15.0	4.8	32.5	67	.386	10.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	42	.613	13.6	19
vs RHB	9.5	47.6	49	.405	9.1	82

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	48.0	60	.332	33.3	40
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	40.9	64	.261	26.0	46

CUCurveball16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	9.1	36.4	55	.200	21.4	28

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.8	31.0	67	.386	15.0	49

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .336). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIN)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Target Field (339/411/328 ft) · elev 815ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

CUCurveball1

SLSlider1

FCCutter1

Bats S · Switch hitter

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP177PA	.200	.455	.754	4.2%	8
🐾vs LHP88PA	.141	.346	.633	7.2%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home135PA	.095	.270	.492	4.7%	3
Away130PA	.273	.581	.953	5.6%	8

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day109PA	.200	.440	.736	5.1%	5
Night156PA	.168	.406	.701	5.3%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty94PA	.170	.352	.586	4
Runners On99PA	.133	.411	.738	2
RISP66PA	.138	.500	.924	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs102PA	.202	.436	.723	5
1 Out92PA	.232	.488	.814	5
2 Outs71PA	.089	.313	.581	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-032PA	.250	.594	.938	2
1-028PA	.357	.607	.857	3
0-122PA	.250	.500	.773	1
2-06PA	.500	1.167	1.833	1
0-232PA	.031	.250	.469	0
3-05PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-242PA	.071	.238	.405	1
2-241PA	.100	.350	.618	1
3-231PA	.261	.522	.973	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.