Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.6%

+638

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Landen Roupp (RHP) (0.49 HR/9) · park 100

Batting #1Projected lineup

2+ RBI

11.5%

+773

RBI 1+

34.8%

+188

Hits 1+

71.1%

-246

Hits 2+

29.8%

+236

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

22.6%

95% CI · 22.1–23.0%

+344

Fair odds

1st AB

4.5%

Through AB2

8.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Wind+15%
vs SP-33%
Lineup+3%
Contact+19%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast+25%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Landen Roupp (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·20 mph wind out to OF
·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0439 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-33% (×0.67) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+19% (×1.19)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+25% (×1.25)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+785

High

+4000

Low

+345

Med

+778

Avg

+1074

+785

Low +345High +4000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.5

Proj PA

245

HR / PA

.043

ISO

.192

wOBA

.344

wRC+

117

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

21.4

Hard%

41.1

FB%

33.5

Pull%

34.0

Soft%

10.5

GB%

45.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

31.8

Hard%

42.4

FB%

25.9

Pull%

30.6

Soft%

11.8

GB%

54.1

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

40.3

FB%

38.7

Pull%

36.3

Soft%

9.7

GB%

39.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

21.6

Hard%

43.1

FB%

33.9

Pull%

29.4

Soft%

11.0

GB%

44.0

Away

HR/FB

21.2

Hard%

39.0

FB%

33.0

Pull%

39.0

Soft%

10.0

GB%

47.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Landen Roupp stingy: only 0.49 HR/9
18.7% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
52.7% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (33% of career HRs)
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk
Elite barrel% (18.7)
High barrels/PA (12.4%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.49 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.200↓ vs season .29710 PA · 15d

OPS

.700

ISO

.300

RBI

K-BB

5-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs SF	5	1	0	0	0	2	.200
06-16	vs SF	5	1	1	1	0	3	.800
05-18	@ MIA	2	1	0	0	1	0	.500
05-17	vs BOS	2	0	0	2	2	0	—
05-16	vs BOS	3	2	1	2	1	0	1.667
💣 421ft · 106.2 EV · Sinker
05-15	vs BOS	4	2	1	1	0	1	1.250
💣 407ft · 103.0 EV · 4-Seamer
05-14	vs CHC	4	1	0	0	0	2	.250
05-13	vs CHC	4	1	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 402ft · 99.0 EV · Sweeper

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR16PA	.250	.579	23.1	53.8	46	11.8
🐾CUCurveballvR14PA	—	.365	22.2	44.4	44	30.4
🐾CHChangeupvR20PA	.059	.349	0.0	61.5	92	28.1
🐾FCCuttervR14PA	.307	.350	30.0	50.0	60	16.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.318	.472	9.1	59.1	46	8.9	179	26
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.250	.579	23.1	53.8	46	11.8	138	16

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.365	22.2	44.4	44	30.4	138	14

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.253	0.0	25.0	100	36.8	179	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.059	.349	0.0	61.5	92	28.1	138	20

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.167	.413	16.7	33.3	67	23.1	179	7
vs RHPTONIGHT	.307	.350	30.0	50.0	60	16.7	138	14

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

100

vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Baldwin.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Projected0 of 9 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 3 of 9 career HRs (33%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#2#3#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.242

Barrel %

18.7

Hard Hit %

52.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.410

xBA

.297

Brl / PA %

12.40

Max EV (mph)

112.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.2

Avg EV on HRs

104.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

400

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/14

Crushed (105+ mph)

7/14

Avg LA on HRs

27.3°

Brl / PA %

12.40

Sampled across 14 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Landen Roupp · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.579
Whiff%
11.8
HH%
53.8
BRL%
23.1
Pull%
46
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.365
Whiff%
30.4
HH%
44.4
BRL%
22.2
Pull%
44
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.349
Whiff%
28.1
HH%
61.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
92

Career vs Landen Roupp (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.333

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Landen Roupp (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	36.5	7.7	36.9	58	.355	19.3
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	27.6	2.3	16.3	80	.217	29.6
CHChangeup	19.2	0.0	26.2	71	.291	14.3
FCCutter	13.1	4.5	33.3	50	.295	21.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	35.7	60	.373	25.0	70
vs RHB	10.2	36.7	57	.332	11.6	57

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	33.3	100	.238	33.3	44
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	7.7	65	.202	27.7	54

CHChangeup19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	78	.304	14.3	52
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	38	.242	12.9	13

FCCutter13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	40.0	70	.341	29.4	16
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	33	.245	17.6	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .487). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft

14 HRs this season

vs RHP 7vs LHP 7

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball6

SISinker3

SLSlider2

FCCutter1

CUCurveball1

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.0 games · 9 PA (4 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP134PA	.214	.496	.862	21.3%	7
vs LHP92PA	.284	.605	1.007	14.9%	7

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home114PA	.248	.545	.913	23.0%	7
Away112PA	.237	.536	.929	13.5%	7

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day53PA	.227	.591	1.044	22.7%	3
🐾Night173PA	.247	.526	.884	17.1%	11

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty93PA	.298	.631	1.029	8
Runners On87PA	.110	.425	.839	1
RISP56PA	.107	.447	.876	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs77PA	.283	.522	.860	6
1 Out85PA	.264	.639	1.098	5
2 Outs64PA	.170	.441	.769	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Thu.