Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.1%

+725

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Gage Jump (1.20 HR/9) · park 114

Batting #3Projected lineup

2+ RBI

10.7%

+838

RBI 1+

34.1%

+194

Hits 1+

65.5%

-190

Hits 2+

23.4%

+328

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.1%

95% CI · 8.8–9.4%

+1001

Fair odds

1st AB

2.1%

Through AB2

4.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
vs SP-10%
Contact+5%
SP Contact-9%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 114)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0233 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+575

High

+1050

Low

+405

Med

+722

Avg

+727

+575

Low +405High +1050

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.1

Proj PA

167

HR / PA

.024

ISO

.133

wOBA

.309

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.8

Hard%

36.5

FB%

40.5

Pull%

41.5

Soft%

13.2

GB%

38.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

33.3

FB%

35.0

Pull%

36.7

Soft%

15.0

GB%

43.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

11.6

Hard%

38.4

FB%

43.9

Pull%

44.4

Soft%

12.1

GB%

35.7

Home

HR/FB

3.4

Hard%

34.4

FB%

45.3

Pull%

43.8

Soft%

9.4

GB%

34.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

11.4

Hard%

37.9

FB%

37.2

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

15.8

GB%

41.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Sutter Health Park mild HR boost (+14)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (114)
High barrels/PA (5.7%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.222↓ vs season .2619 PA · 15d

OPS

.778

ISO

.334

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ ARI	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-03	vs COL	5	2	1	3	0	1	1.000
💣 408ft · 106.8 EV · Sweeper
06-02	vs COL	3	1	0	0	0	2	.667
06-01	vs COL	4	1	0	0	1	0	.500
05-31	@ TB	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
05-30	@ TB	3	1	0	1	1	0	.333
05-29	@ TB	5	2	0	2	0	1	.600
05-28	@ DET	4	1	0	2	0	1	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball36PA	.322	.391	16.7	54.2	42	21.1
🐾SLSlider20PA	.150	.272	0.0	41.2	71	28.9
🐾CUCurveball15PA	.143	.316	8.3	35.7	67	20.0
🐾STSweeper15PA	.500	.460	21.4	35.7	50	11.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.143	.365	18.2	63.6	55	27.8	61	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.500	.417	15.4	46.2	31	12.5	121	18

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.167	.271	0.0	33.3	83	9.1	61	6
vs RHP	.143	.272	0.0	45.5	64	37.0	121	14

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.255	0.0	25.0	75	30.0	61	5
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.250	.431	12.5	50.0	63	8.3	121	8

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.500	.462	21.4	35.7	50	8.7	121	15

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Grissom.

Season Statcast

ISO

.160

Barrel %

7.3

Hard Hit %

45.2

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.344

xBA

.261

Brl / PA %

5.70

Max EV (mph)

108.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

103.8

Avg EV on HRs

103.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

396

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/2

Avg LA on HRs

31.5°

Brl / PA %

5.70

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Gage Jump · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
50
xwOBA
.391
Whiff%
21.1
HH%
54.2
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
42
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlider
Use%
25
xwOBA
.272
Whiff%
28.9
HH%
41.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
71
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 20 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
9
xwOBA
.316
Whiff%
20.0
HH%
35.7
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
67

Gage Jump arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	49.7	3.2	29.0	55	.290	18.2
SLSlider	24.7	5.0	35.0	65	.353	12.5
CUCurveball	9.0	0.0	33.3	50	.216	21.1
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.0	0.0	28.6	86	.212	35.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball50% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	0	.316	25.0	7
vs RHB	3.7	33.3	63	.285	17.5	36

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	57	.503	—	8
vs RHB	0.0	23.1	69	.282	14.3	17

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	33.3	67	.230	21.4	8

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY7% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	80	.133	42.9	8
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 35.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .619). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

STSweeper1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 37 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP96PA	.212	.471	.804	8.0%	4
vs LHP63PA	.075	.283	.573	6.1%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home67PA	.084	.220	.444	5.9%	1
🐾Away92PA	.216	.532	.917	8.2%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day65PA	.092	.259	.540	4.1%	1
🐾Night94PA	.202	.488	.828	9.3%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty49PA	.133	.289	.513	1
Runners On78PA	.152	.470	.847	2
RISP50PA	.122	.439	.806	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs45PA	.231	.462	.795	1
1 Out59PA	.100	.320	.608	1
2 Outs55PA	.164	.429	.762	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.