Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.4%

+646

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Gage Jump (1.20 HR/9) · park 114

Batting #1Projected lineup

2+ RBI

11.4%

+779

RBI 1+

34.7%

+188

Hits 1+

55.6%

-125

Hits 2+

14.3%

+597

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

22.3%

95% CI · 21.8–22.7%

+349

Fair odds

1st AB

5.5%

Through AB2

10.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
vs SP-10%
Lineup+3%
Contact+18%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast+22%
SP Statcast-7%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0417 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+18% (×1.18)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+22% (×1.22)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+345

High

+1300

Low

+320

Med

+710

Avg

+691

🐾+345

Low +320🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1300

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+3202026-07-05vs BOSbook line

HomeBat 1stoff LHP4-Seamer

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

12.5

Proj PA

270

HR / PA

.046

ISO

.213

wOBA

.336

wRC+

113

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.8

Hard%

33.5

FB%

47.7

Pull%

49.8

Soft%

12.1

GB%

31.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

34.5

FB%

51.7

Pull%

48.3

Soft%

17.2

GB%

25.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

16.9

Hard%

33.1

FB%

46.4

Pull%

50.3

Soft%

10.5

GB%

33.0

Home

HR/FB

14.8

Hard%

37.9

FB%

52.4

Pull%

46.6

Soft%

12.6

GB%

31.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

18.6

Hard%

30.1

FB%

44.0

Pull%

52.2

Soft%

11.8

GB%

31.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Sutter Health Park mild HR boost (+14)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (62% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .835 OPS over last 15 days
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (114)
Elite barrel% (12.7)
High barrels/PA (7.0%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.216↑ vs season .20656 PA · 15d

OPS

.835

ISO

.333

RBI

K-BB

23-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ ARI	3	2	1	1	1	1	1.667
💣 431ft · 106.8 EV · Changeup
06-16	@ ARI	5	2	1	1	0	2	1.400
💣 421ft · 108.0 EV · Cutter
06-15	@ ARI	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-14	vs TB	5	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-13	vs TB	5	1	0	0	0	2	.200
06-12	vs TB	5	1	0	0	0	4	.200
06-10	vs HOU	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-09	vs HOU	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball89PA	.304	.342	16.1	44.8	60	20.6
🐾SLSlider63PA	.204	.272	5.6	33.3	75	42.7
🐾CUCurveball25PA	.046	.203	16.7	28.6	83	52.2
🐾STSweeper29PA	.111	.190	6.7	28.6	60	52.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.322	.322	13.0	34.8	52	17.9	138	29
vs RHP	.288	.351	17.9	51.3	64	22.3	108	71

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.240	0.0	0.0	100	43.5	138	11
vs RHP	.240	.279	5.9	35.3	74	40.8	108	52

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.106	0.0	25.0	100	43.8	138	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.091	.233	50.0	50.0	50	65.2	108	13

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.111	.198	6.7	26.7	60	43.4	108	29

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Neto.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Projected21 of 34 HRs · 62%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 21 of 34 career HRs (62%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.221

Barrel %

12.7

Hard Hit %

37.2

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.321

xBA

.206

Brl / PA %

7.00

Max EV (mph)

109.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.8

Avg EV on HRs

104.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

396

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/8

Avg LA on HRs

31.4°

Brl / PA %

7.00

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Gage Jump · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
50
xwOBA
.342
Whiff%
20.6
HH%
44.8
BRL%
16.1
Pull%
60
SLSlider
Use%
25
xwOBA
.272
Whiff%
42.7
HH%
33.3
BRL%
5.6
Pull%
75
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 63 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
9
xwOBA
.203
Whiff%
52.2
HH%
28.6
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
83
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 25 PA this season.

Gage Jump arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	49.7	3.2	29.0	55	.290	18.2
SLSlider	24.7	5.0	35.0	65	.353	12.5
CUCurveball	9.0	0.0	33.3	50	.216	21.1
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.0	0.0	28.6	86	.212	35.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball50% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	0	.316	25.0	7
vs RHB	3.7	33.3	63	.285	17.5	36

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	57	.503	—	8
vs RHB	0.0	23.1	69	.282	14.3	17

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	33.3	67	.230	21.4	8

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY7% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	80	.133	42.9	8
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 35.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .469). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

SLSlider1

SISinker1

FCCutter1

STSweeper1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 19 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP246PA	.218	.440	.753	12.8%	11
vs LHP84PA	.232	.478	.859	13.0%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home152PA	.215	.415	.724	15.7%	7
🐾Away178PA	.225	.477	.825	10.6%	8

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day117PA	.219	.448	.807	10.4%	4
🐾Night213PA	.222	.450	.765	14.2%	11

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty93PA	.227	.468	.823	4
Runners On106PA	.220	.440	.761	5
RISP67PA	.193	.421	.749	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs161PA	.230	.446	.769	8
1 Out95PA	.238	.476	.792	5
2 Outs74PA	.177	.419	.784	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.