Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

20.8%

+381

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Griffin Jax (RHP) (1.62 HR/9) · park 127

2+ RBI

15.4%

+548

RBI 1+

38.4%

+160

Hits 1+

55.6%

-125

Hits 2+

14.3%

+597

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

28.6%

95% CI · 28.1–29.1%

+250

Fair odds

1st AB

7.2%

Through AB2

14.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+27%
vs SP-16%
Contact+23%
SP Contact+13%
Statcast+19%
SP Statcast+2%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Griffin Jax (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 127)
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0407 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj

Park+27% (×1.27)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+23% (×1.23)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+19% (×1.19)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+13% (×1.13)

SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games · 3 HR

Now

+380

High

+800

Low

+340

Med

+442

Avg

+498

🐾🐾🐾+380

Low +340🐾 HR money zoneHigh +800

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 3× priced here.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

15.4

Proj PA

376

HR / PA

.041

ISO

.198

wOBA

.336

wRC+

112

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

17.3

Hard%

34.1

FB%

45.5

Pull%

50.3

Soft%

10.2

GB%

31.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

15.8

Hard%

32.5

FB%

47.5

Pull%

52.5

Soft%

15.0

GB%

32.5

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

17.9

Hard%

34.6

FB%

44.8

Pull%

49.6

Soft%

8.7

GB%

31.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

18.4

Hard%

41.1

FB%

52.1

Pull%

45.2

Soft%

9.6

GB%

30.1

Away

HR/FB

16.2

Hard%

28.7

FB%

40.2

Pull%

54.3

Soft%

10.6

GB%

32.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Angel Stadium is a hitter's haven (+27 for RHB)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (62% of career HRs)
Park boost (127)
Elite barrel% (12.0)
High barrels/PA (6.6%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.62 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.200↓ vs season .20646 PA · 15d

OPS

.754

ISO

.250

RBI

K-BB

17-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs TB	5	1	0	0	0	4	.200
06-10	vs HOU	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-09	vs HOU	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-08	vs HOU	4	1	1	1	1	2	1.000
💣 395ft · 102.8 EV · Slider
06-07	@ LAD	6	1	1	3	0	4	.667
💣 404ft · 101.1 EV · Sinker
06-06	@ LAD	4	1	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 410ft · 106.2 EV · 4-Seamer
06-05	@ LAD	3	1	0	0	0	0	.333
05-31	@ TB	4	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾STSweepervR27PA	.120	.213	6.7	26.7	60	40.8
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR68PA	.304	.350	18.9	54.1	62	22.7
🐾CHChangeupvR19PA	—	.129	0.0	11.1	78	40.0
🐾SISinkervR40PA	.352	.474	24.0	40.0	72	17.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.120	.213	6.7	26.7	60	40.8	111	27

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.346	.323	14.3	38.1	57	18.0	136	27
vs RHPTONIGHT	.304	.350	18.9	54.1	62	22.7	111	68

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.374	0.0	16.7	67	31.8	136	12
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.129	0.0	11.1	78	40.0	111	19

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.520	50.0	50.0	100	18.2	136	8
vs RHPTONIGHT	.352	.474	24.0	40.0	72	17.4	111	40

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

127

vs SHB

106

Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Neto.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 21 of 34 career HRs (62%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.213

Barrel %

12.0

Hard Hit %

37.1

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.321

xBA

.206

Brl / PA %

6.60

Max EV (mph)

109.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.8

Avg EV on HRs

104.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

396

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/8

Avg LA on HRs

31.4°

Brl / PA %

6.60

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Griffin Jax · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

STSweepervs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.213
Whiff%
40.8
HH%
26.7
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
60
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 27 PA this season.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
21
xwOBA
.350
Whiff%
22.7
HH%
54.1
BRL%
18.9
Pull%
62
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.129
Whiff%
40.0
HH%
11.1
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
78
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 19 PA this season.

Career vs Griffin Jax (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

1.000AVG · small sample (1 PA)

OPS

2.000

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Griffin Jax (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
STSweeper	24.9	9.1	38.1	68	.289	22.4
FF4-Seam Fastball	20.6	23.8	47.6	52	.454	14.3
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.4	3.3	33.3	53	.296	28.2
SISinker	19.6	4.2	41.7	71	.374	21.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

STSweeper25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	12.5	62.5	75	.520	7.7	12
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	64	.209	27.8	26

FF4-Seam Fastball21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.4	38.5	46	.402	16.7	18
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	37.5	62.5	63	.531	11.8	12

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	26.9	46	.299	27.6	36
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.0	75.0	100	.278	30.0	7

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	63	.310	37.5	13
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	43.8	75	.417	0.0	20

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .469). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Angel Stadium (330/400/330 ft) · elev 153ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

SLSlider1

SISinker1

FCCutter1

STSweeper1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP229PA	.211	.437	.760	12.1%	10
vs LHP78PA	.204	.438	.810	12.2%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home142PA	.234	.442	.766	17.1%	7
Away165PA	.189	.434	.779	8.2%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day108PA	.205	.432	.793	9.7%	3
🐾Night199PA	.211	.440	.762	13.5%	10

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty88PA	.203	.446	.810	3
Runners On100PA	.232	.465	.795	5
RISP63PA	.203	.444	.777	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs147PA	.216	.424	.751	7
1 Out87PA	.221	.468	.790	4
2 Outs73PA	.180	.426	.796	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-042PA	.375	.775	1.204	3
1-017PA	.400	.800	1.271	2
0-123PA	.174	.435	.696	1
2-04PA	1.000	1.500	2.000	1
0-229PA	.037	.111	.249	0
3-010PA	—	—	.900	0
1-258PA	.123	.228	.349	1
2-252PA	.216	.373	.546	3
3-246PA	.179	.500	1.087	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.