Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.1%

+1142

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Parker Messick (0.90 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #9Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

8.4%

+1086

RBI 1+

32.0%

+212

Hits 1+

60.3%

-152

Hits 2+

18.3%

+446

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.1%

95% CI · 4.9–5.3%

+1861

Fair odds

1st AB

1.3%

Through AB2

2.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
vs SP-5%
Contact-22%
SP Contact+1%
Statcast-15%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0194 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-22% (×0.78)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+990

High

+4000

Low

+595

Med

+928

Avg

+1092

+990

Low +595High +4000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.1

Proj PA

172

HR / PA

.024

ISO

.135

wOBA

.299

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

5.1

Hard%

27.0

FB%

34.7

Pull%

27.5

Soft%

17.4

GB%

49.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

29.5

FB%

37.3

Pull%

21.3

Soft%

18.0

GB%

47.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

5.4

Hard%

25.6

FB%

33.3

Pull%

30.8

Soft%

17.1

GB%

50.4

🐾Home

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

26.8

FB%

33.3

Pull%

26.8

Soft%

22.0

GB%

52.6

Away

HR/FB

3.0

Hard%

27.1

FB%

35.9

Pull%

28.1

Soft%

13.5

GB%

46.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Parker Messick stingy: only 0.90 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.269↑ vs season .23129 PA · 15d

OPS

.691

ISO

.077

RBI

K-BB

2-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CLE	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-14	vs PHI	3	1	0	0	0	.333
06-13	vs PHI	3	0	0	0	0	—
06-12	vs PHI	4	2	0	0	1	.750
06-10	@ ATH	3	0	0	0	0	—
06-09	@ ATH	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	@ ATH	3	2	0	0	0	.667
06-07	@ COL	4	1	1	1	1	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball48PA	.028	.311	0.0	37.0	36	16.3
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SISinker36PA	.036	.393	3.2	40.7	58	11.8
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.343	0.0	27.3	55	19.6	65	21
vs RHP	.040	.288	0.0	41.2	24	14.3	63	34

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.457	0.0	80.0	20	0.0	65	7
vs RHP	.037	.378	3.8	26.9	65	10.4	63	34

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Ortiz.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #9Confirmed0 of 3 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 2 of 3 career HRs (67%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.055

Barrel %

3.3

Hard Hit %

33.3

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.297

xBA

.231

Brl / PA %

2.40

Max EV (mph)

110.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

97.4

Avg EV on HRs

97.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

395

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

30.0°

Brl / PA %

2.40

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Parker Messick · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
31
xwOBA
.311
Whiff%
16.3
HH%
37.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
36
CHChangeup
Use%
25
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SISinker
Use%
17
xwOBA
.393
Whiff%
11.8
HH%
40.7
BRL%
3.2
Pull%
58
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Parker Messick arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.3	8.2	36.2	43	.230	25.0
CHChangeup	24.7	7.7	23.9	60	.234	24.8
SISinker	16.9	5.0	49.1	62	.415	7.1
CUCurveball	11.1	4.2	9.5	63	.252	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	38.9	44	.214	25.8	29
vs RHB	7.3	41.8	42	.236	22.8	91

CHChangeup25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	60.0	80	.256	29.4	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	8.5	25.5	57	.231	25.5	87

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	28.0	60	.328	8.3	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	60.0	63	.475	0.0	37

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	11.1	67	.159	0.0	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.7	26.7	60	.312	0.0	16

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #1 (xwOBA .345). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

KNKnuckleball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP111PA	.074	.274	.565	2.3%	1
vs LHP59PA	.020	.240	.556	4.3%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home93PA	.074	.321	.640	3.8%	1
Away77PA	.032	.188	.464	1.8%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day77PA	.031	.206	.499	5.3%	0
Night93PA	.073	.305	.609	1.3%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty53PA	.120	.380	.682	1
Runners On81PA	.016	.177	.485	0
RISP54PA	.028	.257	.688	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs51PA	.022	.227	.513	0
1 Out67PA	.055	.291	.624	0
2 Outs52PA	.087	.261	.530	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.