Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

9.8%

+917

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs J.T. Ginn (RHP) (1.01 HR/9) · park 95

Batting #2Projected lineup

2+ RBI

9.4%

+963

RBI 1+

32.9%

+204

Hits 1+

60.5%

-153

Hits 2+

18.5%

+441

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.7%

95% CI · 10.3–11.0%

+837

Fair odds

1st AB

2.8%

Through AB2

5.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Temp+5%
vs SP-2%
Contact-4%
SP Contact+3%
Statcast+2%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs J.T. Ginn (RHP)

·93F game

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0269 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+2% (×1.02)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 17 games · 1 HR

Now

+620

High

+1150

Low

+575

Med

+855

Avg

+836

🐾+620

Low +575🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1150

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+10852026-06-07vs ATLfair odds

AwayBat 1stoff RHPSlider

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

9.3

Proj PA

320

HR / PA

.029

ISO

.154

wOBA

.337

wRC+

112

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.4

Hard%

26.1

FB%

42.9

Pull%

40.8

Soft%

21.2

GB%

42.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

30.0

FB%

23.3

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

30.0

GB%

66.7

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

25.3

FB%

46.8

Pull%

40.9

Soft%

19.5

GB%

37.7

Home

HR/FB

13.6

Hard%

23.4

FB%

41.1

Pull%

43.0

Soft%

22.4

GB%

43.9

🐾Away

HR/FB

8.6

Hard%

29.9

FB%

45.5

Pull%

37.7

Soft%

19.5

GB%

40.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (35% of career HRs)
93°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (5.5%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.267↑ vs season .23251 PA · 15d

OPS

.775

ISO

.155

RBI

K-BB

9-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	vs MIA	3	1	0	1	0	1	.333
06-12	vs MIA	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-11	vs LAD	5	2	0	1	0	2	.400
06-10	vs LAD	5	2	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 402ft · 101.5 EV · 4-Seamer
06-07	@ ATL	3	2	1	1	1	0	1.667
💣 411ft · 103.1 EV · Slider
06-06	@ ATL	5	1	0	0	0	1	.200
06-05	@ ATL	2	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-04	@ HOU	4	0	0	0	1	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR24PA	.056	.345	6.7	40.0	47	6.1
🐾FCCuttervR19PA	.222	.181	0.0	18.8	56	14.3
🐾CHChangeupvR21PA	.150	.321	5.3	31.6	58	15.2
🐾SLSlidervR20PA	.421	.307	7.1	28.6	79	11.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.419	0.0	57.1	50	8.7	110	18
vs RHPTONIGHT	.056	.345	6.7	40.0	47	6.1	142	24

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.222	.181	0.0	18.8	56	14.3	142	19

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.150	.321	5.3	31.6	58	15.2	142	21

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.229	0.0	33.3	50	20.0	110	9
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.421	.307	7.1	28.6	79	11.4	142	20

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Horwitz.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Projected6 of 17 HRs · 35%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 6 of 17 career HRs (35%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#1#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.174

Barrel %

7.6

Hard Hit %

33.7

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.332

xBA

.232

Brl / PA %

5.50

Max EV (mph)

108.0

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.7

Avg EV on HRs

103.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

385

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/4

Avg LA on HRs

35.3°

Brl / PA %

5.50

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

J.T. Ginn · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
35
xwOBA
.345
Whiff%
6.1
HH%
40.0
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
47
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.181
Whiff%
14.3
HH%
18.8
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
56
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 19 PA this season.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
18
xwOBA
.321
Whiff%
15.2
HH%
31.6
BRL%
5.3
Pull%
58

J.T. Ginn (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	35.0	6.8	41.2	62	.351	29.1
FCCutter	18.6	8.3	38.2	75	.343	15.8
CHChangeup	18.3	5.6	26.5	75	.180	23.1
SLSlider	16.0	5.7	39.4	66	.292	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	9.4	40.6	75	.404	25.6	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.8	45.2	52	.309	31.4	68

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	13.6	50.0	82	.454	12.5	31
vs RHB	0.0	21.4	64	.143	—	15

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	29.4	77	.190	24.2	51
vs RHB	no sample

SLSlider16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.6	50.0	50	.391	18.5	24
vs RHB	5.9	35.3	82	.202	19.1	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .427). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

SLSlider1

CHChangeup1

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 18 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP209PA	.193	.483	.871	7.9%	8
vs LHP45PA	.081	.351	.729	5.9%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home143PA	.193	.504	.917	6.0%	6
🐾Away111PA	.149	.404	.755	9.9%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day115PA	.188	.438	.803	6.7%	4
🐾Night139PA	.163	.479	.882	8.3%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty82PA	.145	.348	.677	3
Runners On109PA	.090	.326	.665	1
RISP76PA	.115	.377	.732	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs84PA	.260	.644	1.096	5
1 Out80PA	.188	.422	.772	3
2 Outs90PA	.079	.316	.672	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Mon.