Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

7.6%

+1221

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (0.87 HR/9) · park 100

2+ RBI

8.2%

+1125

RBI 1+

31.8%

+215

Hits 1+

59.2%

-145

Hits 2+

17.3%

+477

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

7.4%

95% CI · 7.1–7.7%

+1256

Fair odds

1st AB

1.8%

Through AB2

3.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Wind+15%
vs SP-9%
Contact-10%
SP Contact+3%
Statcast-16%
SP Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·20 mph wind out to OF
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0228 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-9% (×0.91) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+1300

High

+2020

Low

+730

Med

+1040

Avg

+1109

+1300

Low +730High +2020

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.8

Proj PA

HR / PA

.020

ISO

.119

wOBA

.285

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.4

Hard%

27.6

FB%

35.5

Pull%

40.4

Soft%

22.4

GB%

44.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

10.5

FB%

44.4

Pull%

36.8

Soft%

36.8

GB%

50.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

29.9

FB%

34.3

Pull%

40.9

Soft%

20.4

GB%

43.3

Home

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

29.2

FB%

31.0

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

26.4

GB%

43.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

9.4

Hard%

26.2

FB%

39.5

Pull%

41.7

Soft%

19.0

GB%

44.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Martín Pérez stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.179↓ vs season .22539 PA · 15d

OPS

.645

ISO

.071

RBI

K-BB

7-8

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ ATL	3	0	0	0	0	—
06-16	@ ATL	3	0	0	1	1	—
06-14	vs CHC	3	1	1	1	0	.667
06-13	vs CHC	0	0	0	3	0	—
06-12	vs CHC	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	vs WSH	1	0	1	1	0	—
06-09	vs WSH	1	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	vs WSH	2	1	0	0	0	1.000

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeup22PA	.143	.269	0.0	27.8	78	27.8
🐾SISinker19PA	.055	.253	0.0	14.3	53	21.9
🐾FCCutter17PA	.200	.319	5.9	35.7	77	8.3
🐾CUCurveball12PA	—	.200	14.3	57.1	57	34.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.143	.276	0.0	29.4	77	28.6	119	22

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.177	0.0	16.7	50	7.1	—	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.091	.302	0.0	11.1	56	21.1	119	12

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.166	.321	5.9	35.3	77	6.7	119	20

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.384	16.7	83.3	50	28.6	119	7

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

100

vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Gilbert.

Season Statcast

ISO

.137

Barrel %

2.6

Hard Hit %

32.8

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.278

xBA

.225

Brl / PA %

1.80

Max EV (mph)

110.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

101.8

Avg EV on HRs

101.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

380

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/2

Avg LA on HRs

25.0°

Brl / PA %

1.80

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

CHChangeup
Use%
33
xwOBA
.269
Whiff%
27.8
HH%
27.8
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
78
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 22 PA this season.
SISinker
Use%
30
xwOBA
.253
Whiff%
21.9
HH%
14.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
53
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 19 PA this season.
FCCutter
Use%
22
xwOBA
.319
Whiff%
8.3
HH%
35.7
BRL%
5.9
Pull%
77

Martín Pérez arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.6	7.6	23.0	83	.275	18.7
SISinker	30.3	8.1	47.3	76	.388	12.0
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.5	7.3	43.2	49	.299	30.8
CUCurveball	9.3	0.0	45.5	73	.312	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	88	.190	21.2	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	20.7	83	.300	16.0	76

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	38.2	77	.430	5.9	41
vs RHB	7.1	53.6	75	.345	15.2	42

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.128	20.0	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.1	48.6	51	.323	35.1	54

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	67	.373	—	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .344). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP141PA	.163	.423	.773	2.7%	3
vs LHP24PA	—	—	—	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home71PA	.115	.328	.642	1.9%	1
🐾Away94PA	.152	.376	.666	2.7%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day71PA	.106	.364	.674	—	1
🐾Night94PA	.162	.350	.643	4.2%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty56PA	.082	.327	.666	0
Runners On81PA	.113	.324	.615	1
RISP56PA	.125	.333	.629	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs52PA	.196	.370	.610	2
1 Out48PA	.195	.512	.929	1
2 Outs65PA	.051	.237	.499	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.