Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

5.9%

+1581

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ben Brown (RHP) (0.16 HR/9) · park 75

2+ RBI

7.3%

+1275

RBI 1+

31.0%

+223

Hits 1+

59.0%

-144

Hits 2+

17.2%

+482

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

3.7%

95% CI · 3.5–3.9%

+2632

Fair odds

1st AB

0.8%

Through AB2

1.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-25%
vs SP-25%
Contact-10%
SP Contact-16%
Statcast-17%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Ben Brown (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0220 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-25% (×0.75) · blended_proj

Park-25% (×0.75)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-17% (×0.83)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-16% (×0.84)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 8 games

Now

+1580

High

+1205

Low

+455

Med

+758

Avg

+794

+1580

Low +455High +1205

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.4

Proj PA

172

HR / PA

.020

ISO

.118

wOBA

.283

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.1

Hard%

24.5

FB%

35.9

Pull%

40.6

Soft%

24.5

GB%

45.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

6.7

FB%

50.0

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

40.0

GB%

50.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

27.5

FB%

33.7

Pull%

41.8

Soft%

22.0

GB%

44.9

🐾Home

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

26.1

FB%

28.9

Pull%

45.7

Soft%

30.4

GB%

48.9

Away

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

23.3

FB%

41.4

Pull%

36.7

Soft%

20.0

GB%

43.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

1.0 🐾

DART THROW

Oracle Park suppresses HRs (75)
Ben Brown stingy: only 0.16 HR/9
Hot streak: .724 OPS over last 15 days
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (75)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.16 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.219↓ vs season .22436 PA · 15d

OPS

.724

ISO

.219

RBI

K-BB

9-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs CHC	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	vs WSH	1	0	1	1	0	—
06-09	vs WSH	1	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	vs WSH	2	1	0	0	0	1.000
06-07	@ CHC	2	0	0	1	1	—
06-06	@ CHC	3	0	0	0	2	—
06-05	@ CHC	2	1	0	0	1	.500
06-04	@ MIL	5	2	0	0	1	.400

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveballvR7PA	—	.384	16.7	83.3	50	28.6
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR44PA	.271	.372	3.2	38.7	48	16.0
🐾SISinkervR10PA	.100	.292	0.0	11.1	56	13.3
🐾CHChangeupvR20PA	.158	.294	0.0	26.7	73	32.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.384	16.7	83.3	50	28.6	119	7

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.050	0.0	0.0	67	33.3	—	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.271	.372	3.2	38.7	48	16.0	119	44

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.177	0.0	16.7	50	7.1	—	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.100	.292	0.0	11.1	56	13.3	119	10

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.158	.294	0.0	26.7	73	32.3	119	20

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

100

vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Gilbert.

Season Statcast

ISO

.142

Barrel %

2.8

Hard Hit %

32.1

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.262

xBA

.224

Brl / PA %

2.10

Max EV (mph)

110.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

101.8

Avg EV on HRs

101.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

380

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/2

Avg LA on HRs

25.0°

Brl / PA %

2.10

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ben Brown · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.384
Whiff%
28.6
HH%
83.3
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.372
Whiff%
16.0
HH%
38.7
BRL%
3.2
Pull%
48
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.292
Whiff%
13.3
HH%
11.1
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
56

Career vs Ben Brown (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

2-0

Ben Brown (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball	37.1	—	41.3	—	.229	29.1
FF4-Seam Fastball	36.6	5.5	46.3	53	.319	14.9
SISinker	20.0	2.7	36.1	65	.262	20.0
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	6.3	12.5	50.0	50	.215	33.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	45.2	57	.331	14.9	59
vs RHB	7.7	46.2	39	.286	17.9	20

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.9	40.0	66	.272	21.1	44

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY6% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	50.0	50	.215	33.3	12
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 33.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .344). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP126PA	.165	.435	.763	2.9%	3
vs LHP23PA	—	—	—	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home63PA	.103	.310	.568	2.1%	1
Away86PA	.164	.405	.699	2.8%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day67PA	.095	.349	.648	—	1
🐾Night82PA	.175	.378	.641	4.5%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty52PA	.085	.340	.667	0
Runners On73PA	.104	.313	.567	1
RISP51PA	.108	.304	.549	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs44PA	.220	.415	.629	2
1 Out45PA	.179	.487	.887	1
2 Outs60PA	.053	.246	.479	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-023PA	.087	.391	.696	0
1-011PA	—	.222	.495	0
0-115PA	—	.267	.533	0
2-02PA	.500	1.000	1.500	0
0-216PA	.125	.250	.375	0
3-02PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-219PA	.157	.368	.579	1
2-225PA	.080	.280	.480	0
3-220PA	.071	.357	.857	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.