Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.2%

+885

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trey Gibson (RHP) (1.06 HR/9) · park 88

2+ RBI

9.6%

+944

RBI 1+

33.1%

+202

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

7.6%

95% CI · 7.3–7.9%

+1212

Fair odds

1st AB

2.1%

Through AB2

4.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-12%
Temp+5%
vs SP-3%
Contact-18%
SP Contact+5%
SP Statcast+4%
Discipline+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Trey Gibson (RHP)

·90F game
·Soft contact profile (season) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0240 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-3% (×0.97) · blended_proj

Park-12% (×0.88)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-18% (×0.82)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+4% (×1.04)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 5 games

Now

+885

High

+960

Low

+575

Med

+790

Avg

+812

+885

Low +575High +960

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.5

Proj PA

133

HR / PA

.026

ISO

.138

wOBA

.278

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

10.0

FB%

77.8

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

30.0

GB%

11.1

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

14.3

FB%

83.3

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

28.6

GB%

16.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Oriole Park at Camden Yards suppresses HRs (88)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (88)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.176↓ vs season .25018 PA · 15d

OPS

.398

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

7-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-10	vs CIN	0	0	0	0	—
06-09	vs CIN	2	0	0	1	—
06-08	vs CIN	3	2	1	0	.667
06-07	vs NYM	4	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs NYM	0	0	0	0	—
06-04	@ PHI	1	0	0	1	—
06-03	@ PHI	3	0	0	1	—
06-02	@ PHI	4	1	0	3	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinker	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SLSlider	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

136

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

112

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Bowen.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.4

Avg EV on HRs

106.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

449

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/1

Avg LA on HRs

24.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trey Gibson · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Unknown

SISinker
Use%
28
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCutter
Use%
24
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SLSlider
Use%
19
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Trey Gibson (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	28.4	10.0	40.0	55	.370	5.9
FCCutter	24.2	14.3	42.9	71	.425	7.1
SLSlider	18.9	0.0	50.0	75	.341	7.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.1	25.0	50.0	63	.580	16.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	57.1	57	.436	—	7
vs RHB	15.4	30.8	54	.342	7.1	16

FCCutter24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	22.2	44.4	67	.541	0.0	9
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	40.0	80	.276	12.5	7

SLSlider19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	33.3	100	.267	13.3	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	66.7	50	.425	0.0	7

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	14.3	42.9	57	.447	20.0	9
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 16.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

Hover / tap a cell to inspect.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BAL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Camden Yards (333/410/318 ft) · elev 36ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP9PA	—	.333	.666	11.1%	0
vs LHP9PA	—	—	.111	22.2%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home10PA	—	.222	.522	11.1%	0
🐾Away8PA	—	.125	.250	22.2%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day5PA	—	—	—	42.9%	0
Night13PA	—	.250	.558	—	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty7PA	—	—	.143
Runners On10PA	—	.300	.600
RISP4PA	—	.250	.500

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs3PA	—	.333	.666
1 Out6PA	—	.167	.334
2 Outs9PA	—	.125	.347

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0-04PA	—	.500	1.000
1-01PA	—	—	—
0-12PA	—	—	—
2-02PA	.500	1.500	2.500
0-25PA	—	—	—
1-24PA	—	—	—
2-25PA	—	.200	.400
3-22PA	—	—	.500

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.