Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.1%

+1141

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joey Estes (RHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 95

2+ RBI

8.4%

+1086

RBI 1+

32.0%

+212

Hits 1+

69.5%

-227

Hits 2+

27.8%

+260

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

7.5%

95% CI · 7.2–7.8%

+1231

Fair odds

1st AB

2.0%

Through AB2

4.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Temp+5%
vs SP+40%
Contact-13%
Statcast-14%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Joey Estes (RHP)

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·87F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0196 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+40% (×1.40) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-13% (×0.87)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-14% (×0.86)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games

Now

+1140

High

+1170

Low

+645

Med

+768

Avg

+797

+1140

Low +645High +1170

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.4

Proj PA

246

HR / PA

.018

ISO

.122

wOBA

.315

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

3.6

Hard%

33.0

FB%

31.8

Pull%

36.9

Soft%

4.0

GB%

38.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

34.1

FB%

42.5

Pull%

19.5

Soft%

4.9

GB%

40.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

5.3

Hard%

32.6

FB%

28.6

Pull%

42.2

Soft%

3.7

GB%

38.3

Home

HR/FB

2.9

Hard%

29.6

FB%

36.5

Pull%

32.7

Soft%

3.1

GB%

36.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

5.0

Hard%

37.2

FB%

26.0

Pull%

42.3

Soft%

5.1

GB%

41.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

87°F — ball flies in warm air

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.302↑ vs season .28658 PA · 15d

OPS

.743

ISO

.113

RBI

K-BB

6-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ ATH	3	0	1	0	0	—
06-11	vs CHC	4	3	0	0	0	1.000
06-10	vs CHC	3	0	0	1	1	—
06-09	vs CHC	5	1	0	0	0	.400
06-07	vs MIL	2	1	1	0	0	1.000
06-06	vs MIL	3	1	0	1	0	.333
06-05	vs MIL	5	0	0	0	0	—
06-03	@ LAA	4	2	2	0	1	.750

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
FF4-Seam FastballvR68PA	.072	.389	2.6	43.6	49	28.7
SISinkervR16PA	—	.242	8.3	8.3	42	18.2
CUCurveballvR16PA	.375	.358	9.1	27.3	82	32.1
STSweepervR7PA	.428	.300	0.0	75.0	100	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.100	.156	0.0	50.0	67	16.0	21	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.072	.389	2.6	43.6	49	28.7	137	68

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.181	.438	8.3	58.3	33	5.6	21	13
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.242	8.3	8.3	42	18.2	137	16

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.375	.358	9.1	27.3	82	32.1	137	16

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.275	0.0	66.7	83	23.5	21	7
vs RHPTONIGHT	.428	.300	0.0	75.0	100	14.3	137	7

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Johnston.

Season Statcast

ISO

.119

Barrel %

2.8

Hard Hit %

36.9

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.328

xBA

.286

Brl / PA %

2.10

Max EV (mph)

107.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.3

Avg EV on HRs

103.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

412

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/3

Avg LA on HRs

31.0°

Brl / PA %

2.10

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .515). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CUCurveball1

KCKnuckle-Curve1

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP193PA	.132	.477	.881	2.8%	2
vs LHP52PA	.062	.250	.466	4.4%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home131PA	.125	.458	.840	3.8%	1
🐾Away114PA	.108	.392	.737	2.4%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day83PA	.113	.507	.970	3.0%	0
🐾Night162PA	.119	.391	.706	3.4%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty73PA	.135	.478	.875	1
Runners On120PA	.125	.433	.811	1
RISP70PA	.119	.492	.935	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs88PA	.110	.451	.830	0
1 Out79PA	.133	.493	.860	1
2 Outs78PA	.108	.323	.669	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-044PA	.191	.643	1.075	1
1-012PA	.250	.583	.917	0
0-125PA	.160	.640	1.120	0
2-08PA	—	—	—	0
0-228PA	.214	.500	.786	1
3-02PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-239PA	—	.132	.285	0
2-230PA	.100	.300	.500	1
3-230PA	.091	.409	.909	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.