Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

12.2%

+718

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Zack Wheeler (RHP) (1.12 HR/9) · park 131

2+ RBI

10.7%

+832

RBI 1+

34.1%

+193

Hits 1+

64.2%

-179

Hits 2+

22.0%

+355

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.1%

95% CI · 11.7–12.4%

+729

Fair odds

1st AB

2.8%

Through AB2

5.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+31%
vs SP-13%
Contact+12%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast-10%
SP Statcast-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Zack Wheeler (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0237 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-13% (×0.87) · blended_proj

Park+31% (×1.31)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-10% (×0.90)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed-1% (×0.99)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 17 games

Now

+820

High

+1065

Low

+600

Med

+810

Avg

+803

+820

Low +600High +1065

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.7

Proj PA

289

HR / PA

.023

ISO

.130

wOBA

.322

wRC+

102

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

15.3

Hard%

32.1

FB%

40.9

Pull%

41.6

Soft%

22.5

GB%

42.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

18.2

FB%

43.8

Pull%

39.4

Soft%

36.4

GB%

40.6

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

16.9

Hard%

34.7

FB%

40.3

Pull%

42.0

Soft%

19.9

GB%

42.6

Home

HR/FB

15.6

Hard%

34.2

FB%

40.9

Pull%

40.5

Soft%

26.1

GB%

36.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

15.0

Hard%

29.6

FB%

40.8

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

18.4

GB%

49.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for LHB)
Hot streak: .873 OPS over last 15 days
Park boost (131)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.262↑ vs season .25351 PA · 15d

OPS

.873

ISO

.238

RBI

K-BB

5-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ PIT	5	1	0	1	0	1	.200
06-12	@ PIT	4	3	1	2	1	0	1.750
💣 356ft · 90.6 EV · Changeup
06-11	vs ARI	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-10	vs ARI	4	2	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-09	vs ARI	5	1	0	1	0	1	.400
06-07	vs TB	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-06	vs TB	1	1	0	1	0	0	1.000
06-05	vs TB	4	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR88PA	.203	.376	6.7	30.7	57	2.3
🐾SISinkervR30PA	—	.262	0.0	34.6	54	2.5
🐾STSweepervR6PA	.200	.357	0.0	40.0	100	—
🐾FSSplit-FingervR11PA	.300	.233	14.3	42.9	86	22.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.189	0.0	14.3	57	29.4	55	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.203	.376	6.7	30.7	57	2.3	145	88

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.310	0.0	26.7	67	3.1	55	18
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.262	0.0	34.6	54	2.5	145	30

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.171	0.0	0.0	40	18.2	55	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.200	.357	0.0	40.0	100	0.0	145	6

FSSplit-Finger

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.300	.233	14.3	42.9	86	22.2	145	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

131

vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Hicks.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.210

Barrel %

4.8

Hard Hit %

31.1

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.321

xBA

.253

Brl / PA %

3.80

Max EV (mph)

107.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.5

Avg EV on HRs

101.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

379

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/9

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/9

Avg LA on HRs

29.3°

Brl / PA %

3.80

Sampled across 9 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Zack Wheeler · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
39
xwOBA
.376
Whiff%
2.3
HH%
30.7
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
57
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.262
Whiff%
2.5
HH%
34.6
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
54
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 30 PA this season.
STSweepervs RHP
Use%
14
xwOBA
.357
Whiff%
0.0
HH%
40.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
100

Career vs Zack Wheeler (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (5 PA)

OPS

.200

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Zack Wheeler (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	38.9	9.1	43.2	46	.244	22.7
SISinker	16.7	10.3	35.9	49	.321	14.3
STSweeper	13.5	5.9	23.5	71	.341	17.1
FSSplit-Finger	12.7	4.2	29.2	75	.257	19.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	41.2	47	.258	19.1	53
vs RHB	10.0	50.0	40	.208	31.0	20

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.117	15.4	6
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	40.0	51	.354	13.6	39

STSweeper14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	71	.633	0.0	8
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	70	.204	20.7	17

FSSplit-Finger13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.3	31.6	74	.326	9.4	22
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	20.0	80	.119	42.9	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .382). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

9 HRs this season

vs RHP 8vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider4

FF4-Seam Fastball2

CHChangeup1

FCCutter1

FSSplitter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 34 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP218PA	.239	.532	.899	5.4%	12
vs LHP46PA	.075	.250	.533	—	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home140PA	.233	.533	.912	3.4%	7
🐾Away124PA	.185	.426	.749	5.7%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day116PA	.169	.453	.850	2.9%	5
Night148PA	.241	.504	.822	5.8%	8

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty80PA	.171	.357	.645	3
Runners On123PA	.289	.635	1.042	8
RISP76PA	.191	.524	.906	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs94PA	.131	.393	.712	3
1 Out96PA	.308	.577	.952	7
2 Outs74PA	.197	.485	.850	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Mon.