Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
14.6%
+584
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 114
2+ RBI
12.0%
+730
RBI 1+
35.3%
+183
Hits 1+
63.7%
-175
Hits 2+
21.5%
+365
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter12.6%
95% CI · 12.2–13.0%
+695
Fair odds
1st AB
3.2%
Through AB2
6.3%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park+14%
- Temp+5%
- Contact+6%
🎯 Early-AB cues
- ·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
- ·87F game
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0260 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher
Park+14% (×1.14)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+6% (×1.06)
Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline-1% (×0.99)
HR Odds History
Price range · 3 games
Now
+585
High
+1025
Low
+385
Med
+405
Avg
+605
+585
Low +385High +1025
BUILDING HISTORY
No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.
Recent — tap a game
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
1.2
Proj PA
43
HR / PA
.029
ISO
.165
wOBA
.318
wRC+
87
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
9.1
Hard%
20.0
FB%
78.6
Pull%
13.3
Soft%
20.0
GB%
14.3
vs LHP
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
14.3
FB%
83.3
Pull%
0.0
Soft%
0.0
GB%
16.7
vs RHP
HR/FB
16.7
Hard%
25.0
FB%
75.0
Pull%
25.0
Soft%
37.5
GB%
12.5
Home
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
33.3
FB%
83.3
Pull%
16.7
Soft%
16.7
GB%
16.7
🐾Away
HR/FB
16.7
Hard%
11.1
FB%
75.0
Pull%
11.1
Soft%
22.2
GB%
12.5
🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
4.0 🐾STRONG PLAY
- Las Vegas Ballpark mild HR boost (+14)
- 87°F — ball flies in warm air
- Park boost (114)
- High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.300↑ vs season .25012 PA · 15d
OPS
.733
ISO
.100
HR
0
RBI
2
K-BB
6-1
Game Log · Last 8
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 | @ ATH | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .500 |
| 06-10 | vs CHC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 06-07 | vs MIL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 |
| 06-06 | vs MIL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 06-05 | vs MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 06-03 | @ LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 05-31 | vs SF | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .333 |
| 05-27 | @ LAD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
| Pitch | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI7PA | .800 | .677 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 67 | 18.2 |
| FF10PA | — | .164 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 100 | 25.0 |
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seamer
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | — | .117 | — | — | — | 29.4 | — | 6 |
| vs RHP | no sample | |||||||
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
95
🐾vs RHB
114
vs SHB
104
Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Fulford.
Season Statcast
Barrel %
7.5
Pull % (HRs)
100
xBA
.250
Brl / PA %
6.18
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
106.2
Avg EV on HRs
100.6
Avg HR Distance (ft)
402
HRs in sample
2
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/2
Crushed (105+ mph)
1/2
Avg LA on HRs
31.0°
Brl / PA %
6.18
Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .468). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft
2 HRs this season
vs RHP 2vs LHP 0
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FA1
SISinker1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP12PA | .300 | .600 | 1.017 | 6.2% | 1 |
| vs LHP17PA | .067 | .200 | .376 | 14.3% | 0 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home15PA | .083 | .250 | .517 | 25.0% | 0 |
| 🐾Away14PA | .231 | .462 | .748 | — | 1 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day9PA | .125 | .375 | .597 | 22.2% | 0 |
| 🐾Night20PA | .177 | .353 | .653 | — | 1 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty9PA | — | .143 | .476 | 0 |
| Runners On9PA | — | .250 | .472 | 0 |
| RISP6PA | — | .400 | .733 | 0 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs13PA | .333 | .500 | .731 | 1 |
| 1 Out11PA | — | .111 | .293 | 0 |
| 2 Outs5PA | — | .500 | 1.100 | 0 |
Count
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-04PA | 1.000 | 1.333 | 1.833 | 1 |
| 1-06PA | .167 | .500 | .833 | 0 |
| 0-12PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 2-01PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 0-22PA | — | .500 | 1.000 | 0 |
| 1-26PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 2-24PA | — | .250 | .500 | 0 |
| 3-28PA | — | .167 | .417 | 0 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Sat.