Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.8%

+925

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Burke (RHP) (0.91 HR/9) · park 101

2+ RBI

9.4%

+968

RBI 1+

32.9%

+204

Hits 1+

58.7%

-142

Hits 2+

16.9%

+493

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT

105wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

—wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his strong side.

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.9%

95% CI · 8.6–9.2%

+1024

Fair odds

1st AB

2.5%

Through AB2

4.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+1%
Temp+5%
vs SP+10%
Contact-14%
SP Contact-5%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Sean Burke (RHP)

·85F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0267 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+10% (×1.10) · blended_proj

Park+1% (×1.01)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-14% (×0.86)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-5% (×0.95)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 9 games

Now

+925

High

+870

Low

+700

Med

+750

Avg

+746

+925

Low +700High +870

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.2

Proj PA

HR / PA

.028

ISO

.145

wOBA

.303

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

35.8

FB%

36.3

Pull%

33.7

Soft%

8.4

GB%

47.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

11.1

FB%

44.4

Pull%

55.6

Soft%

0.0

GB%

44.4

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

10.3

Hard%

38.4

FB%

35.4

Pull%

31.4

Soft%

9.3

GB%

47.6

Home

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

41.9

FB%

38.1

Pull%

34.9

Soft%

4.7

GB%

54.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

5.6

Hard%

30.2

FB%

36.0

Pull%

32.1

Soft%

11.3

GB%

40.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SL)
Hot streak: .782 OPS over last 15 days
86°F — ball flies in warm air
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (4.6%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.258↑ vs season .22239 PA · 15d

OPS

.782

ISO

.129

RBI

K-BB

8-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ CHW	1	0	0	0	0	—
06-11	@ PIT	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	@ PIT	2	0	0	1	0	—
06-09	@ PIT	3	2	1	2	0	.667
06-07	vs LAA	3	0	0	1	2	—
06-06	vs LAA	4	0	1	0	2	—
06-05	vs LAA	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-04	@ ARI	2	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR45PA	.184	.383	9.4	53.1	41	15.7
🐾CUCurveballvR14PA	—	.256	0.0	57.1	43	42.9
🐾SLSlidervR16PA	.154	.397	42.9	42.9	86	47.8
🐾SISinkervR22PA	.052	.256	7.1	21.4	36	12.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.184	.383	9.4	53.1	41	15.7	105	45

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.256	0.0	57.1	43	42.9	105	14

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.154	.397	42.9	42.9	86	47.8	105	16

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.052	.256	7.1	21.4	36	12.5	105	22

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

101

vs RHB

🐾vs SHB

Rate Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Freeland.

Season Statcast

ISO

.106

Barrel %

7.4

Hard Hit %

38.9

xwOBA

.299

xBA

.222

Brl / PA %

4.60

Max EV (mph)

106.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.5

Avg EV on HRs

102.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

388

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/3

Avg LA on HRs

30.7°

Brl / PA %

4.60

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Burke · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
38
xwOBA
.383
Whiff%
15.7
HH%
53.1
BRL%
9.4
Pull%
41
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
21
xwOBA
.256
Whiff%
42.9
HH%
57.1
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
43
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 14 PA this season.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.397
Whiff%
47.8
HH%
42.9
BRL%
42.9
Pull%
86
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Sean Burke (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	37.5	11.2	36.6	47	.289	18.6
CUCurveball	21.1	—	38.2	—	.280	18.2
SLSlider	16.8	6.1	29.0	67	.291	16.9
SISinker	16.3	2.4	35.7	52	.337	11.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY38% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.9	40.0	56	.331	17.2	86
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	38.2	32	.228	21.2	62

SLSlider17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	37.5	50	.275	19.0	15
vs RHB	8.0	24.0	72	.300	15.4	35

SISinker16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	6.7	53.3	53	.371	21.1	23
vs RHB	0.0	25.9	52	.317	10.5	33

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 18.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .477). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CHW)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Rate Field (330/400/335 ft) · elev 595ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

FCCutter1

Bats S · Switch hitter

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP137PA	.112	.362	.705	8.3%	3
vs LHP17PA	.063	.188	.364	9.1%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home68PA	.164	.344	.598	11.5%	2
🐾Away86PA	.056	.338	.719	5.5%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day58PA	.120	.340	.656	13.5%	1
Night96PA	.097	.341	.671	5.7%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty47PA	.219	.463	.803	3
Runners On67PA	.037	.245	.573	0
RISP40PA	—	.185	.563	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs61PA	.058	.327	.655	0
1 Out44PA	.264	.553	.939	3
2 Outs49PA	.024	.167	.432	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-010PA	.375	.750	1.050	1
1-016PA	.071	.357	.607	0
0-110PA	—	.200	.400	0
2-04PA	—	.250	.500	0
0-212PA	—	—	—	0
3-01PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-225PA	.120	.240	.360	1
2-229PA	.250	.429	.635	2
3-224PA	—	.071	.530	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.