Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

16.4%

+509

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joey Cantillo (LHP) (1.48 HR/9) · park 124

2+ RBI

13.0%

+667

RBI 1+

36.2%

+176

Hits 1+

65.3%

-189

Hits 2+

23.2%

+331

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.8%

95% CI · 9.5–10.2%

+915

Fair odds

1st AB

2.5%

Through AB2

5.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+24%
Temp+5%
Contact-12%
SP Contact-4%
Statcast-5%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Joey Cantillo (LHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 124)
·85F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0245 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-0% (×1.00) · blended_proj

Park+24% (×1.24)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-5% (×0.95)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games

Now

+510

High

+915

Low

+600

Med

+725

Avg

+740

+510

Low +600High +915

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.9

Proj PA

280

HR / PA

.025

ISO

.146

wOBA

.321

wRC+

103

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

1.8

Hard%

36.1

FB%

38.1

Pull%

39.5

Soft%

15.6

GB%

40.1

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

22.2

FB%

22.2

Pull%

44.4

Soft%

33.3

GB%

77.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

1.9

Hard%

37.0

FB%

39.1

Pull%

39.1

Soft%

14.5

GB%

37.7

Home

HR/FB

3.8

Hard%

37.7

FB%

37.7

Pull%

31.9

Soft%

17.4

GB%

39.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

37.5

FB%

38.8

Pull%

45.0

Soft%

15.0

GB%

41.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Progressive Field is a hitter's haven (+24 for LHB)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CU)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (42% of career HRs)
86°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (124)
High barrels/PA (4.5%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.111↓ vs season .26037 PA · 15d

OPS

.385

ISO

.139

RBI

K-BB

7-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ CLE	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-11	vs MIN	4	2	1	3	0	0	1.250
💣 419ft · 101.5 EV · Changeup
06-10	vs MIN	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-09	vs MIN	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-07	vs SEA	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-06	vs SEA	3	1	0	0	0	1	1.000
06-05	vs SEA	4	1	0	0	0	3	.250
06-03	@ TB	3	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball68PA	.032	.338	7.5	49.0	49	11.4
🐾CHChangeup35PA	.177	.257	3.8	38.5	77	29.3
🐾CUCurveball11PA	.222	.540	25.0	50.0	75	33.3
🐾SLSlider18PA	.111	.150	15.4	20.0	69	42.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.030	.340	7.7	48.1	48	10.6	87	74

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.177	.257	3.8	38.5	77	31.1	87	35

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.222	.496	25.0	62.5	75	33.3	87	12

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.096	.160	15.4	38.5	69	38.7	87	21

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

124

vs RHB

vs SHB

Progressive Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Keith.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 8 of 19 career HRs (42%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.079

Barrel %

6.1

Hard Hit %

40.8

xwOBA

.303

xBA

.260

Brl / PA %

4.50

Max EV (mph)

109.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.6

Avg EV on HRs

—

Avg HR Distance (ft)

—

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

—

Crushed (105+ mph)

—

Avg LA on HRs

—

Brl / PA %

4.50

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Joey Cantillo · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
42
xwOBA
.338
Whiff%
11.4
HH%
49.0
BRL%
7.5
Pull%
49
CHChangeup
Use%
29
xwOBA
.257
Whiff%
29.3
HH%
38.5
BRL%
3.8
Pull%
77
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 35 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
19
xwOBA
.540
Whiff%
33.3
HH%
50.0
BRL%
25.0
Pull%
75
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Joey Cantillo (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	41.8	12.6	45.8	48	.386	12.6
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	28.5	4.0	24.5	74	.274	23.8
CUCurveball	19.2	3.0	34.4	70	.249	22.4
SLSlider	9.0	10.5	36.8	58	.340	4.2

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball42% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	8.3	45.8	50	.393	8.8	34
vs RHB	14.3	44.4	48	.384	15.7	92

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.0	20.0	60	.274	25.0	17
vs RHB	2.2	24.4	76	.274	23.4	76

CUCurveball19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	12.5	37.5	88	.363	11.1	10
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	32.0	64	.224	26.8	47

SLSlider9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	23.1	54	.241	5.6	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	66.7	67	.538	0.0	7

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .482). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP192PA	.083	.350	.657	8.1%	1
🐾vs LHP11PA	—	.100	.282	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home95PA	.092	.379	.726	6.6%	1
🐾Away108PA	.068	.301	.560	8.2%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day77PA	.100	.329	.615	10.0%	1
Night126PA	.067	.342	.652	5.5%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty63PA	.017	.279	.565	0
Runners On84PA	.100	.363	.649	1
RISP46PA	.070	.279	.518	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs66PA	.170	.424	.757	1
1 Out68PA	.049	.339	.677	0
2 Outs69PA	.029	.261	.493	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-031PA	.207	.655	1.107	1
1-015PA	—	.267	.533	0
0-118PA	.167	.611	1.056	0
2-06PA	—	—	—	0
0-217PA	—	—	—	0
1-220PA	—	.250	.500	0
2-221PA	.095	.333	.571	0
3-237PA	.036	.143	.467	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Sat.