Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

21.8%

+358

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ryan Weathers (1.82 HR/9) · park 117

2+ RBI

16.0%

+525

RBI 1+

38.9%

+157

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)

58wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

—wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+).

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.3%

95% CI · 14.9–15.7%

+555

Fair odds

1st AB

4.4%

Through AB2

8.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+17%
Temp+5%
vs SP+16%
Contact-6%
SP Contact+12%
Statcast+7%
SP Statcast+5%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
·87F game
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0274 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+16% (×1.16) · blended_proj

Park+17% (×1.17)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+7% (×1.07)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

SP Statcast allowed+5% (×1.05)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+360

High

+945

Low

+410

Med

+750

Avg

+700

+360

Low +410High +945

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.8

Proj PA

HR / PA

.029

ISO

.140

wOBA

.272

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.9

Hard%

31.6

FB%

49.3

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

15.8

GB%

42.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

35.3

FB%

33.3

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

17.6

GB%

53.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

12.9

Hard%

30.5

FB%

53.4

Pull%

52.5

Soft%

15.3

GB%

39.7

Home

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

34.1

FB%

41.0

Pull%

53.7

Soft%

17.1

GB%

48.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

5.0

Hard%

28.6

FB%

58.8

Pull%

45.7

Soft%

14.3

GB%

35.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven (+17 for SHB)
Ryan Weathers is leaky — 1.82 HR/9 allowed
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (117)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.82 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.9% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.083↓ vs season .25027 PA · 15d

OPS

.240

ISO

.042

RBI

K-BB

8-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ NYY	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-14	vs LAD	3	0	0	0	3	—
06-12	vs LAD	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-09	vs ATL	3	0	0	1	0	—
06-07	@ PHI	3	0	1	0	1	—
06-06	@ PHI	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-03	@ MIN	5	1	0	0	2	.400
06-02	@ MIN	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball26PA	.428	.328	20.0	38.5	80	20.5
🐾CHChangeup17PA	.062	.172	0.0	16.7	58	42.4
🐾SISinker17PA	.285	.508	26.7	50.0	53	14.3
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.750	.504	50.0	50.0	50	50.0	—	7
vs RHP	.300	.264	15.4	30.8	85	15.6	58	22

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.084	.177	0.0	22.2	56	48.0	58	13

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.384	.533	30.8	61.5	54	18.2	58	15

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

117

vs RHB

107

🐾vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Romo.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.0

Avg EV on HRs

103.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

373

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/4

Avg LA on HRs

27.5°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ryan Weathers · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.328
Whiff%
20.5
HH%
38.5
BRL%
20.0
Pull%
80
CHChangeup
Use%
23
xwOBA
.172
Whiff%
42.4
HH%
16.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
58
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 17 PA this season.
SISinker
Use%
20
xwOBA
.508
Whiff%
14.3
HH%
50.0
BRL%
26.7
Pull%
53
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Ryan Weathers arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.7	21.9	54.5	56	.431	18.7
CHChangeup	22.7	8.6	33.3	67	.248	24.0
SISinker	19.7	6.5	46.4	48	.380	16.2
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	19.3	9.1	17.6	59	.219	31.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	44.4	77.8	44	.357	45.5	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.9	58	.445	14.2	79

CHChangeup23% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	8.9	33.9	67	.251	22.5	80

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.3	43.5	57	.378	27.8	32
vs RHB	7.7	48.7	44	.381	11.5	47

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	30.0	80	.215	22.7	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	25.0	42	.220	31.6	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 31.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .749). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SISinker1

FCCutter1

Bats S · Switch hitter

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP80PA	.208	.361	.586	10.9%	4
vs LHP19PA	.286	.429	.762	9.1%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home56PA	.289	.462	.694	13.5%	4
🐾Away43PA	.117	.235	.497	6.9%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day44PA	.216	.351	.584	14.3%	2
🐾Night55PA	.225	.388	.643	7.9%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty36PA	.236	.412	.634	2
Runners On42PA	.206	.353	.621	2
RISP30PA	.043	.130	.397	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs31PA	.307	.538	.838	2
1 Out29PA	.111	.185	.323	1
2 Outs39PA	.242	.394	.676	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.