Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
10.7%
+832
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Carlos Rodón (LHP) (0.58 HR/9) · park 117
2+ RBI
9.9%
+910
RBI 1+
33.4%
+200
Hits 1+
63.7%
-175
Hits 2+
21.5%
+365
Switch Hitter — Batting Side
🐾As LHB(vs RHP)
63wRC+
As RHB(vs LHP)TONIGHT
—wRC+
🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits RIGHT-handed vs the LHP — his weaker side.
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
10.4%
95% CI · 10.1–10.8%
+861
Fair odds
1st AB
2.5%
Through AB2
5.0%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
Park+17%
vs SP-6%
Contact-4%
SP Contact-8%
Statcast+3%
SP Statcast-6%
Discipline-1%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Carlos Rodón (LHP)
·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0286 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-6% (×0.94) · blended_proj
Park+17% (×1.17)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+3% (×1.03)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)
SP Statcast allowed-6% (×0.94)
Discipline-1% (×0.99)
HR Odds History
Price range · 10 games
Now
+830
High
+750
Low
+415
Med
+700
Avg
+647
+830
Low +415High +750
BUILDING HISTORY
No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-16 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
2.8
Proj PA
99
HR / PA
.028
ISO
.137
wOBA
.274
wRC+
70
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-16 · FG
Season
HR/FB
18.5
Hard%
31.1
FB%
45.8
Pull%
54.1
Soft%
16.4
GB%
44.1
🐾vs LHP
HR/FB
33.3
Hard%
30.0
FB%
33.3
Pull%
40.0
Soft%
20.0
GB%
44.4
vs RHP
HR/FB
16.7
Hard%
31.4
FB%
48.0
Pull%
56.9
Soft%
15.7
GB%
44.0
Home
HR/FB
28.6
Hard%
36.1
FB%
40.0
Pull%
58.3
Soft%
16.7
GB%
48.6
🐾Away
HR/FB
7.7
Hard%
24.0
FB%
54.2
Pull%
48.0
Soft%
16.0
GB%
37.5
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
3.0 🐾
LEAN
🏟Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven (+17 for SHB)
🛡Carlos Rodón stingy: only 0.58 HR/9
🔥Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
·Park boost (117)
·High barrels/PA (6.2%)
·Pitcher suppresses HR (0.58 HR/9)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.095↓ vs season .25024 PA · 15d
OPS
.273
ISO
.048
HR
0
RBI
1
K-BB
7-1
Game Log · Last 8
Date
Opp
AB
H
HR
RBI
BB
K
SLG
06-14
vs LAD
3
0
0
0
0
3
—
06-12
vs LAD
4
1
0
0
0
0
.250
06-09
vs ATL
3
0
0
0
1
0
—
06-07
@ PHI
3
0
0
1
0
1
—
06-06
@ PHI
3
0
0
0
0
1
—
06-03
@ MIN
5
1
0
0
0
2
.400
06-02
@ MIN
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
05-31
vs DET
3
0
0
0
0
0
—
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.
Pitch
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL7PA
.750
.504
50.0
50.0
50
50.0
🐾SLSlider13PA
.100
.266
0.0
28.6
83
34.6
🐾SISinker16PA
.307
.490
21.4
46.2
57
15.0
🐾CHChangeup17PA
.062
.172
0.0
16.7
58
42.4
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT
.750
.504
50.0
50.0
50
50.0
—
7
vs RHP
.316
.278
15.4
30.8
85
16.7
63
21
SLSlider
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
no sample
vs RHP
.125
.309
0.0
40.0
100
29.4
63
10
SISinker
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
no sample
vs RHP
.416
.513
25.0
58.3
58
19.0
63
14
CHChangeup
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
no sample
vs RHP
.084
.177
0.0
22.2
56
48.0
63
13
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
117
vs RHB
107
🐾vs SHB
112
Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Romo.
Season Statcast
Barrel %
7.5
xBA
.250
Brl / PA %
6.18
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
106.0
Avg EV on HRs
103.7
Avg HR Distance (ft)
373
HRs in sample
4
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/4
Crushed (105+ mph)
1/4
Avg LA on HRs
27.5°
Brl / PA %
6.18
Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Carlos Rodón · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT
FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
44
xwOBA
.504
Whiff%
50.0
HH%
50.0
BRL%
50.0
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlider
Use%
26
xwOBA
.266
Whiff%
34.6
HH%
28.6
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
83
SISinker
Use%
16
xwOBA
.490
Whiff%
15.0
HH%
46.2
BRL%
21.4
Pull%
57
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
Carlos Rodón (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)
Pitch
Use%
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball
44.0
8.0
52.0
52
.383
18.0
SLSlider
25.8
11.1
33.3
67
.220
21.9
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY
16.3
0.0
25.0
65
.217
30.0
CHChangeup
12.8
0.0
18.2
82
.228
17.9
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball44% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
28.6
42.9
71
.480
25.0
12
vs RHB
0.0
55.6
44
.356
16.3
41
SLSlider26% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
12.5
37.5
75
.283
13.0
12
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
10.0
30.0
60
.184
26.8
21
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
0.0
25.0
63
.175
40.0
10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT
0.0
25.0
67
.244
20.0
14
CHChangeup13% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB
no sample
vs RHB
0.0
18.2
82
.228
17.9
18
🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches
Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.
🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .749). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
