Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.9%

+673

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (0.93 HR/9) · park 95

Batting #3Projected lineup

2+ RBI

11.1%

+799

RBI 1+

34.5%

+190

Hits 1+

62.1%

-164

Hits 2+

20.0%

+401

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

19.7%

95% CI · 19.3–20.2%

+408

Fair odds

1st AB

3.9%

Through AB2

7.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
vs SP-35%
Contact+15%
SP Contact+11%
Statcast+14%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0430 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-35% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+15% (×1.15)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+14% (×1.14)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

SP Statcast allowed-0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+775

High

+1090

Low

+420

Med

+795

Avg

+772

🐾+775

Low +420🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1090

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+7952026-06-18vs LAAbook line

HomeBat 4thoff RHPSinker

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.4

Proj PA

263

HR / PA

.051

ISO

.235

wOBA

.367

wRC+

133

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

15.6

Hard%

36.8

FB%

37.7

Pull%

36.0

Soft%

17.2

GB%

45.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

21.4

Hard%

46.9

FB%

43.8

Pull%

29.7

Soft%

18.8

GB%

45.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

12.9

Hard%

33.1

FB%

35.4

Pull%

38.3

Soft%

16.6

GB%

45.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

37.4

FB%

44.9

Pull%

30.8

Soft%

18.7

GB%

39.3

Away

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

36.4

FB%

31.8

Pull%

40.2

Soft%

15.9

GB%

50.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (38% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.032 OPS over last 15 days
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (7.3%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.271↑ vs season .24159 PA · 15d

OPS

1.032

ISO

.354

RBI

K-BB

11-11

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs PIT	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-16	vs PIT	2	0	0	0	3	1	—
06-15	vs PIT	5	1	0	0	0	2	.200
06-14	vs COL	4	2	1	2	0	0	1.500
💣 462ft · 108.2 EV · Sinker
06-13	vs COL	2	1	0	1	0	0	1.000
06-12	vs COL	4	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-10	vs MIL	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-09	vs MIL	3	1	1	2	1	0	1.333
💣 354ft · 95.0 EV · Cutter

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinker78PA	.139	.311	7.9	45.2	59	6.7
🐾CUCurveball21PA	.191	.212	8.3	47.1	92	28.3
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball84PA	.224	.371	12.7	46.2	35	17.9
🐾FSSplit-Finger11PA	.222	.255	0.0	—	60	33.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.154	.308	10.0	55.0	60	13.7	110	27
vs RHP	.146	.312	7.0	41.9	58	4.2	119	54

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.545	.227	10.0	50.0	90	25.0	119	11

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.191	.191	6.7	40.0	33	15.0	110	23
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.225	.440	15.0	47.5	35	16.2	119	64

FSSplit-Finger

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.222	.255	0.0	0.0	60	31.0	119	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Soderstrom.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Projected6 of 16 HRs · 38%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 6 of 16 career HRs (38%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#4#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.227

Barrel %

10.7

Hard Hit %

44.2

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.329

xBA

.241

Brl / PA %

7.30

Max EV (mph)

113.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

113.6

Avg EV on HRs

105.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

395

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/6

Avg LA on HRs

27.7°

Brl / PA %

7.30

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

SISinker
Use%
26
xwOBA
.311
Whiff%
6.7
HH%
45.2
BRL%
7.9
Pull%
59
CUCurveball
Use%
25
xwOBA
.212
Whiff%
28.3
HH%
47.1
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
92
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 21 PA this season.
FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
24
xwOBA
.371
Whiff%
17.9
HH%
46.2
BRL%
12.7
Pull%
35

Career vs José Soriano

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

José Soriano arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	25.7	9.0	49.4	69	.395	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.4	—	26.2	—	.240	27.2
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	17.0	47.1	51	.412	17.5
FSSplit-Finger	20.1	2.2	18.2	73	.194	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.3	61.5	72	.481	4.2	49
vs RHB	7.7	38.5	67	.318	25.0	53

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	48.5	58	.453	15.7	52
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.2	40

FSSplit-Finger20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	19.4	78	.195	24.7	61
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.1	22.2	56	.190	26.1	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .494). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

CUCurveball1

FCCutter1

STSweeper1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 17 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP221PA	.203	.444	.797	9.9%	6
vs LHP79PA	.288	.507	.785	13.5%	6

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home144PA	.294	.555	.944	11.8%	7
Away156PA	.170	.383	.665	9.8%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day108PA	.219	.448	.754	12.8%	4
🐾Night192PA	.232	.470	.819	9.6%	8

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty92PA	.246	.481	.807	5
Runners On143PA	.202	.444	.780	4
RISP81PA	.247	.493	.839	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs107PA	.288	.529	.903	6
1 Out82PA	.260	.479	.784	4
2 Outs111PA	.150	.390	.705	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.