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Tyler SoderstromLHB
ATH
🐾 Tonight8:05 PM MT · Las Vegas Ballpark
Home Run
13.8%
+625
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Sean Sullivan (LHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 95
Batting #4Confirmed lineup
2+ RBI
11.6%
+763
RBI 1+
34.9%
+187
Hits 1+
63.7%
-175
Hits 2+
21.5%
+365
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
27.5%
95% CI · 27.0–28.0%
+264
Fair odds
1st AB
8.1%
Through AB2
16.0%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
  • Park-5%
  • Temp+5%
  • vs SP+34%
  • Contact+18%
  • Statcast+16%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Sean Sullivan (LHP)
  • ·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
  • ·91F game
  • ·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
  • ·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0432 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)+34% (×1.34) · blended_proj
Park-5% (×0.95)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+18% (×1.18)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+16% (×1.16)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline+0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 15 games
Now
+625
High
+8030
Low
+255
Med
+600
Avg
+1126
+625
Low +255High +8030
BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
16.9
Proj PA
361
HR / PA
.047
ISO
.222
wOBA
.362
wRC+
128
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
14.5
Hard%
36.1
FB%
39.8
Pull%
36.6
Soft%
18.3
GB%
45.6
🐾vs LHP
HR/FB
23.1
Hard%
48.0
FB%
52.0
Pull%
34.0
Soft%
18.0
GB%
42.0
vs RHP
HR/FB
10.0
Hard%
31.9
FB%
35.5
Pull%
37.6
Soft%
18.4
GB%
46.8
🐾Home
HR/FB
15.8
Hard%
40.7
FB%
46.9
Pull%
30.9
Soft%
18.5
GB%
38.3
Away
HR/FB
13.2
Hard%
32.7
FB%
34.5
Pull%
40.9
Soft%
18.2
GB%
50.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick
4.0 🐾
STRONG PLAY
  • Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (38% of career HRs)
  • Hot streak: 1.238 OPS over last 15 days
  • 92°F — ball flies in warm air
  • High barrels/PA (7.6%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.357↑ vs season .25054 PA · 15d
OPS
1.238
ISO
.381
HR
5
RBI
11
K-BB
7-12
Game Log · Last 8
DateOppABHHRRBIBBKSLG
06-12vs COL400012—
06-10vs MIL410000.250
06-09vs MIL3112101.333
💣 354ft · 95.0 EV · Cutter
06-08vs MIL4324202.250
💣 418ft · 99.2 EV · Sweeper💣 434ft · 103.8 EV · Slurve
06-07@ HOU300012—
06-06@ HOU210110.500
06-05@ HOU200020—
06-04@ CHC4111021.000
💣 396ft · 103.7 EV · Sinker
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
PitchISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%
FFvL22PA.200.1987.142.93615.8
SLvL14PA.384.46233.344.410048.0
FC26PA.291.3825.063.27514.3
SIvL26PA.160.32110.055.06012.0
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPTONIGHT.200.1987.142.93615.812022
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES.256.47316.750.03314.811658
SLSlider
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT.384.46233.344.410048.012014
vs RHP.300.32621.435.77933.311625
FCCutter
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPno sample
vs RHP.190.4185.661.1729.411622
SISinker
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPTONIGHT.160.32110.055.06012.012026
vs RHP.049.2835.641.7564.911645
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
🐾vs LHB
95
vs RHB
114
vs SHB
104

Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Soderstrom.

HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Confirmed5 of 16 HRs · 31%
🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 6 of 16 career HRs (38%).
1
·
1
2
·
6
3
🐾
5
4
🐾
4
5
🐾
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#3#4#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast
ISO
.226
Barrel %
11.0
Hard Hit %
45.5
Pull % (HRs)
83
xwOBA
.337
xBA
.250
Brl / PA %
7.60
Max EV (mph)
113.2
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
113.6
Avg EV on HRs
105.6
Avg HR Distance (ft)
395
HRs in sample
6
No-doubters (110+ mph)
1/6
Crushed (105+ mph)
2/6
Avg LA on HRs
27.7°
Brl / PA %
7.60

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
.38.42.37.37.49🐾.36.17.23.29
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .494). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)
CFLFRF325ft403ft325ftCUFFFCSTFFSL
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft
6 HRs this season
vs RHP 5vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2
CUCurveball1
FCCutter1
STSweeper1
SLSlider1
Bats L · Pull side: RF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
vs RHP199PA.195.438.79010.1%5
🐾vs LHP76PA.300.529.81813.7%6
Location
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Home119PA.306.582.98512.6%6
Away156PA.170.383.6659.8%5
Time
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
Day104PA.185.402.70012.2%3
🐾Night171PA.251.503.86010.4%8
Base State
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Bases Empty89PA.253.494.8205
Runners On129PA.203.442.7684
RISP71PA.262.508.8463
Outs
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0 Outs95PA.276.513.8925
1 Out79PA.268.493.7974
2 Outs101PA.152.402.7192
Count
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0-040PA.264.553.8532
1-025PA.320.640.9602
0-123PA.348.8261.3041
2-08PA———0
0-225PA.200.360.5201
3-07PA——1.0000
1-238PA.105.237.3680
2-232PA.094.188.2811
3-234PA.286.5241.0531

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Night · Fri.