Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

14.4%

+592

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Connor Prielipp (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 94

2+ RBI

11.9%

+737

RBI 1+

35.2%

+184

Hits 1+

69.3%

-226

Hits 2+

27.6%

+262

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

20.4%

95% CI · 19.9–20.8%

+391

Fair odds

1st AB

5.1%

Through AB2

10.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
vs SP-12%
Contact+25%
SP Contact-4%
Statcast+24%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Connor Prielipp (LHP)

·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0396 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-12% (×0.88) · blended_proj

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+25% (×1.25)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games · 1 HR

Now

+590

High

+875

Low

+385

Med

+590

Avg

+599

🐾+590

Low +385🐾 HR money zoneHigh +875

WARMspot score 88

Just below his HR money zone (+435 to +435). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

17.2

Proj PA

374

HR / PA

.046

ISO

.216

wOBA

.348

wRC+

124

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

22.7

Hard%

46.5

FB%

40.5

Pull%

40.5

Soft%

9.2

GB%

39.5

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

30.0

Hard%

55.3

FB%

42.6

Pull%

29.8

Soft%

4.3

GB%

40.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

43.5

FB%

39.9

Pull%

44.2

Soft%

10.9

GB%

39.1

Home

HR/FB

20.6

Hard%

43.3

FB%

35.1

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

13.4

GB%

42.3

🐾Away

HR/FB

24.4

Hard%

50.0

FB%

46.6

Pull%

39.8

Soft%

4.5

GB%

36.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Connor Prielipp stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
Elite power: .259 ISO
13.5% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
51.9% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Elite barrel% (13.5)
High barrels/PA (9.0%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.298↑ vs season .28558 PA · 15d

OPS

.801

ISO

.193

RBI

K-BB

16-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ MIN	5	1	0	3	0	1	.400
06-11	@ NYM	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-10	@ NYM	5	2	1	4	0	1	1.000
💣 401ft · 107.3 EV · 4-Seamer
06-09	@ NYM	5	1	0	1	0	0	.400
06-07	vs CIN	5	2	0	1	0	1	.600
06-06	vs CIN	4	2	1	1	0	2	1.250
💣 401ft · 105.4 EV · Sinker
06-05	vs CIN	5	3	0	1	0	1	1.000
06-03	vs TEX	4	3	0	0	0	0	.750

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SLSlider31PA	.233	.315	12.5	39.1	75	35.6
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL20PA	.632	.621	29.4	82.4	47	2.5
🐾CUCurveballvL9PA	—	.133	0.0	—	67	63.2
🐾CHChangeupvL15PA	.385	.457	11.1	55.6	67	36.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.233	.321	13.6	40.9	77	36.1	151	31

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.632	.621	29.4	82.4	47	2.5	171	20
vs RHP	.220	.307	17.1	48.6	40	18.0	151	54

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.133	0.0	0.0	67	63.2	171	9
vs RHP	no sample

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.385	.457	11.1	55.6	67	36.7	171	15
vs RHP	.294	.288	12.5	62.5	50	46.9	151	18

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

107

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

100

Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Walker.

Season Statcast

ISO

.259

Barrel %

13.5

Hard Hit %

51.9

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.373

xBA

.285

Brl / PA %

9.00

Max EV (mph)

115.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

113.7

Avg EV on HRs

107.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

406

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

3/14

Crushed (105+ mph)

11/14

Avg LA on HRs

26.5°

Brl / PA %

9.00

Sampled across 14 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Connor Prielipp · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

SLSlider
Use%
32
xwOBA
.315
Whiff%
35.6
HH%
39.1
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
75
FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.621
Whiff%
2.5
HH%
82.4
BRL%
29.4
Pull%
47
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveballvs LHP
Use%
16
xwOBA
.133
Whiff%
63.2
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
67

Connor Prielipp (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SLSlider	31.7	12.8	43.6	51	.293	19.6
FF4-Seam Fastball	30.6	8.3	30.6	33	.397	10.0
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.3	0.0	20.0	90	.074	23.8
CHChangeup	12.6	13.6	50.0	73	.367	16.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SLSlider32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	21.1	47.4	42	.314	17.9	28
vs RHB	5.0	40.0	60	.278	20.6	38

FF4-Seam Fastball31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	66.7	33	.494	20.0	11
vs RHB	3.3	23.3	33	.361	6.8	41

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	75	.127	5.3	5
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	16.7	100	.061	31.8	21

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	13.6	50.0	73	.367	16.0	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #7 (xwOBA .456). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIN)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Target Field (339/411/328 ft) · elev 815ft

14 HRs this season

vs RHP 10vs LHP 4

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball5

CHChangeup2

STSweeper2

FCCutter1

SISinker1

SLSlider1

KCKnuckle-Curve1

FO1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP216PA	.232	.535	.891	13.1%	11
🐾vs LHP68PA	.339	.629	.982	16.3%	6

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home144PA	.221	.534	.909	10.2%	7
🐾Away140PA	.294	.581	.917	17.7%	10

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day113PA	.318	.606	.951	18.0%	9
Night171PA	.218	.526	.889	10.5%	8

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty77PA	.222	.500	.825	4
Runners On141PA	.273	.578	.940	9
RISP90PA	.342	.684	1.095	7

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs95PA	.322	.667	1.056	7
1 Out94PA	.177	.424	.743	4
2 Outs95PA	.273	.580	.938	6

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-042PA	.268	.634	1.015	2
1-024PA	.305	.696	1.112	2
0-131PA	.226	.645	1.065	2
0-235PA	.235	.441	.641	2
3-05PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-240PA	.100	.250	.400	1
2-230PA	.134	.267	.400	1
3-239PA	.434	.667	1.077	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Sat.