Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

16.9%

+491

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (1.03 HR/9) · park 97

Batting #3Projected lineup

2+ RBI

13.3%

+651

RBI 1+

36.5%

+174

Hits 1+

69.2%

-224

Hits 2+

27.5%

+264

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

21.3%

95% CI · 20.8–21.7%

+370

Fair odds

1st AB

5.9%

Through AB2

11.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind-2%
vs SP+3%
Contact+24%
SP Contact-6%
Statcast+24%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0392 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+3% (×1.03) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+24% (×1.24)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+345

High

+960

Low

+315

Med

+598

Avg

+581

+345

Low +315High +960

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.1

Proj PA

266

HR / PA

.049

ISO

.226

wOBA

.352

wRC+

125

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

22.4

Hard%

45.8

FB%

37.4

Pull%

40.1

Soft%

10.7

GB%

41.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

24.0

Hard%

57.1

FB%

35.7

Pull%

28.6

Soft%

5.7

GB%

40.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

21.9

Hard%

41.7

FB%

38.0

Pull%

44.3

Soft%

12.5

GB%

42.2

Home

HR/FB

19.6

Hard%

44.0

FB%

32.6

Pull%

41.8

Soft%

13.5

GB%

44.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

47.9

FB%

43.0

Pull%

38.0

Soft%

7.4

GB%

38.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

14.1% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
52.7% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
Elite barrel% (14.1)
High barrels/PA (9.5%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.310↑ vs season .28458 PA · 15d

OPS

.862

ISO

.242

RBI

K-BB

12-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs SD	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-16	vs SD	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-15	vs SD	4	2	0	0	0	1	.500
06-14	@ MIN	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-13	@ MIN	5	1	1	1	0	0	.800
💣 454ft · 116.6 EV · Sweeper
06-12	@ MIN	5	1	0	3	0	1	.400
06-11	@ NYM	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-10	@ NYM	5	2	1	4	0	1	1.000
💣 401ft · 107.3 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball76PA	.278	.371	19.3	58.5	42	18.1
🐾CHChangeup37PA	.294	.350	15.0	55.0	65	42.0
🐾FCCutter21PA	.200	.391	5.6	38.9	61	32.5
🐾CUCurveball17PA	.236	.359	14.3	22.2	71	57.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.632	.621	29.4	82.4	47	2.4	163	20
vs RHP	.189	.284	15.0	50.0	40	18.0	138	62

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.385	.457	11.1	55.6	67	36.7	163	15
vs RHP	.228	.277	18.2	54.5	64	43.9	138	23

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.211	.415	6.2	43.8	63	37.8	138	20

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.196	25.0	25.0	50	61.9	163	10
vs RHP	no sample

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Walker.

Season Statcast

ISO

.249

Barrel %

14.1

Hard Hit %

52.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.370

xBA

.284

Brl / PA %

9.50

Max EV (mph)

116.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

113.7

Avg EV on HRs

107.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

406

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

3/14

Crushed (105+ mph)

11/14

Avg LA on HRs

26.5°

Brl / PA %

9.50

Sampled across 14 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.371
Whiff%
18.1
HH%
58.5
BRL%
19.3
Pull%
42
CHChangeup
Use%
22
xwOBA
.350
Whiff%
42.0
HH%
55.0
BRL%
15.0
Pull%
65
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
.391
Whiff%
32.5
HH%
38.9
BRL%
5.6
Pull%
61
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Noah Cameron

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

2.500

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Noah Cameron arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.5	10.8	52.5	55	.362	9.8
CHChangeup	21.9	4.3	22.7	60	.262	20.0
FCCutter	19.4	5.3	37.0	74	.354	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	17.1	13.0	30.0	87	.185	26.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.0	16
vs RHB	7.8	52.9	55	.334	9.9	63

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	50	.119	30.8	9
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.7	23.3	61	.280	18.3	61

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	35.3	77	.306	27.3	22
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	73	.374	14.3	48

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	27.8	83	.190	25.6	42

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #7 (xwOBA .456). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

14 HRs this season

vs RHP 10vs LHP 4

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball5

CHChangeup2

STSweeper2

FCCutter1

SISinker1

SLSlider1

KCKnuckle-Curve1

FO1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 18 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP233PA	.228	.516	.855	13.0%	12
vs LHP72PA	.318	.606	.953	18.9%	6

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home156PA	.202	.503	.862	11.1%	7
🐾Away149PA	.297	.572	.894	17.9%	11

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day126PA	.308	.573	.890	18.2%	10
🐾Night179PA	.207	.512	.870	11.3%	8

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty85PA	.238	.513	.831	5
Runners On149PA	.257	.544	.886	9
RISP97PA	.314	.628	1.009	7

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs103PA	.295	.621	.990	7
1 Out100PA	.165	.407	.717	4
2 Outs102PA	.284	.579	.922	7

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.