Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.6%

+1066

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (1.03 HR/9) · park 97

Batting #6Projected lineup

2+ RBI

8.7%

+1047

RBI 1+

32.3%

+210

Hits 1+

65.2%

-187

Hits 2+

23.0%

+334

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.5%

95% CI · 4.3–4.8%

+2104

Fair odds

1st AB

1.1%

Through AB2

2.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind-2%
vs SP+3%
Contact-19%
SP Contact-6%
Statcast-15%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0188 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+3% (×1.03) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-19% (×0.81)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+825

High

+9900

Low

+775

Med

+855

Avg

+1354

+825

Low +775High +9900

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.9

Proj PA

272

HR / PA

.022

ISO

.133

wOBA

.310

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.9

Hard%

32.5

FB%

32.8

Pull%

34.1

Soft%

17.9

GB%

44.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

30.3

FB%

42.4

Pull%

30.3

Soft%

13.6

GB%

33.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

7.4

Hard%

33.3

FB%

29.3

Pull%

35.5

Soft%

19.4

GB%

47.8

Home

HR/FB

2.6

Hard%

33.1

FB%

30.2

Pull%

32.3

Soft%

15.7

GB%

45.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

6.8

Hard%

32.0

FB%

35.5

Pull%

36.0

Soft%

20.0

GB%

42.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (70% of career HRs)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.214↓ vs season .25951 PA · 15d

OPS

.571

ISO

.024

RBI

K-BB

7-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs SD	3	1	0	1	0	.333
06-16	vs SD	3	1	0	1	0	.333
06-15	vs SD	4	2	0	0	0	.500
06-14	@ MIN	1	0	0	0	1	—
06-13	@ MIN	3	0	1	1	1	—
06-12	@ MIN	5	1	0	0	0	.200
06-11	@ NYM	4	1	0	0	1	.500
06-10	@ NYM	4	1	1	1	0	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball92PA	.026	.315	3.3	41.7	30	21.4
🐾CHChangeup17PA	.177	.291	6.2	30.8	75	33.3
🐾FCCutter25PA	.200	.227	0.0	31.6	53	23.7
🐾CUCurveball20PA	.058	.257	0.0	27.3	89	27.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.048	.350	0.0	42.1	21	9.8	111	27
vs RHP	.017	.302	4.8	42.9	33	23.4	72	70

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.176	0.0	14.3	57	18.8	111	9
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.272	.392	11.1	33.3	89	30.0	72	11

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.174	.205	0.0	23.5	47	22.2	72	23

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.125	.259	0.0	20.0	80	18.8	111	10
vs RHP	—	.274	0.0	50.0	100	50.0	72	8

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Winn.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #6Projected0 of 20 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 14 of 20 career HRs (70%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.080

Barrel %

3.2

Hard Hit %

33.3

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.308

xBA

.259

Brl / PA %

2.20

Max EV (mph)

108.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

99.3

Avg EV on HRs

99.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

373

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

30.0°

Brl / PA %

2.20

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.315
Whiff%
21.4
HH%
41.7
BRL%
3.3
Pull%
30
CHChangeup
Use%
22
xwOBA
.291
Whiff%
33.3
HH%
30.8
BRL%
6.2
Pull%
75
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
.227
Whiff%
23.7
HH%
31.6
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
53
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 25 PA this season.

Career vs Noah Cameron

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (6 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

2-0

Noah Cameron arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.5	10.8	52.5	55	.362	9.8
CHChangeup	21.9	4.3	22.7	60	.262	20.0
FCCutter	19.4	5.3	37.0	74	.354	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	17.1	13.0	30.0	87	.185	26.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.0	16
vs RHB	7.8	52.9	55	.334	9.9	63

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	50	.119	30.8	9
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.7	23.3	61	.280	18.3	61

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	35.3	77	.306	27.3	22
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	73	.374	14.3	48

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	27.8	83	.190	25.6	42

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .377). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SISinker1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP204PA	.077	.294	.593	3.4%	2
vs LHP71PA	.085	.373	.739	1.9%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home141PA	.066	.322	.677	2.0%	1
🐾Away134PA	.093	.305	.581	4.1%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day113PA	.049	.267	.550	2.4%	0
🐾Night162PA	.102	.348	.688	3.5%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty92PA	.086	.321	.647	1
Runners On123PA	.077	.298	.599	1
RISP75PA	.050	.217	.484	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs97PA	.070	.337	.677	0
1 Out84PA	.113	.324	.610	1
2 Outs94PA	.060	.280	.599	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.