Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.0%

+1151

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Connor Prielipp (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 94

2+ RBI

8.4%

+1091

RBI 1+

32.0%

+213

Hits 1+

63.8%

-177

Hits 2+

21.7%

+362

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.2%

95% CI · 3.9–4.4%

+2304

Fair odds

1st AB

1.0%

Through AB2

1.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
vs SP-12%
Contact-20%
SP Contact-4%
Statcast-15%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Connor Prielipp (LHP)

·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0180 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-12% (×0.88) · blended_proj

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-20% (×0.80)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games

Now

+1150

High

+1990

Low

+730

Med

+910

Avg

+1034

+1150

Low +730High +1990

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.2

Proj PA

383

HR / PA

.019

ISO

.125

wOBA

.307

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

3.9

Hard%

31.6

FB%

30.2

Pull%

35.1

Soft%

19.3

GB%

46.2

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

29.8

FB%

36.2

Pull%

29.8

Soft%

14.9

GB%

40.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

32.3

FB%

27.9

Pull%

37.1

Soft%

21.0

GB%

48.4

Home

HR/FB

4.3

Hard%

33.7

FB%

28.0

Pull%

36.1

Soft%

18.1

GB%

47.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

3.6

Hard%

29.5

FB%

32.2

Pull%

34.1

Soft%

20.5

GB%

44.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Connor Prielipp stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (70% of career HRs)
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.234↓ vs season .25153 PA · 15d

OPS

.640

ISO

.085

RBI

K-BB

11-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ MIN	5	1	0	0	0	.200
06-11	@ NYM	4	1	0	0	1	.500
06-10	@ NYM	4	1	1	1	0	.250
06-09	@ NYM	4	0	0	0	0	—
06-06	vs CIN	5	2	2	0	2	.400
06-05	vs CIN	2	0	1	2	1	—
06-03	vs TEX	4	0	0	1	1	—
06-02	vs TEX	5	2	0	0	1	.400

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SLSlidervL8PA	.286	.456	14.3	42.9	100	6.2
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL23PA	.050	.317	0.0	41.2	24	11.1
🐾CUCurveballvL10PA	.125	.259	0.0	20.0	80	18.8
🐾CHChangeupvL7PA	—	.181	0.0	20.0	60	21.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.286	.456	14.3	42.9	100	6.2	117	8
vs RHP	.048	.314	0.0	11.8	41	23.7	71	27

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.050	.317	0.0	41.2	24	11.1	117	23
vs RHP	.019	.274	5.9	41.2	32	25.9	71	62

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.125	.259	0.0	20.0	80	18.8	117	10
vs RHP	—	.274	0.0	50.0	100	50.0	71	8

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.181	0.0	20.0	60	21.4	117	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.300	.329	12.5	25.0	100	31.6	71	10

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

107

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

100

Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Winn.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 14 of 20 career HRs (70%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.086

Barrel %

3.5

Hard Hit %

33.3

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.301

xBA

.251

Brl / PA %

2.40

Max EV (mph)

108.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

99.3

Avg EV on HRs

99.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

373

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

30.0°

Brl / PA %

2.40

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Connor Prielipp · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

SLSlidervs LHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.456
Whiff%
6.2
HH%
42.9
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
100
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.317
Whiff%
11.1
HH%
41.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
24
CUCurveballvs LHP
Use%
16
xwOBA
.259
Whiff%
18.8
HH%
20.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
80
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 10 PA this season.

Connor Prielipp (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SLSlider	31.7	12.8	43.6	51	.293	19.6
FF4-Seam Fastball	30.6	8.3	30.6	33	.397	10.0
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.3	0.0	20.0	90	.074	23.8
CHChangeup	12.6	13.6	50.0	73	.367	16.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SLSlider32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	21.1	47.4	42	.314	17.9	28
vs RHB	5.0	40.0	60	.278	20.6	38

FF4-Seam Fastball31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	66.7	33	.494	20.0	11
vs RHB	3.3	23.3	33	.361	6.8	41

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	75	.127	5.3	5
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	16.7	100	.061	31.8	21

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	13.6	50.0	73	.367	16.0	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .377). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIN)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Target Field (339/411/328 ft) · elev 815ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SISinker1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP192PA	.083	.290	.582	3.8%	2
🐾vs LHP65PA	.089	.393	.762	2.1%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home129PA	.072	.315	.656	2.2%	1
🐾Away128PA	.097	.316	.597	4.5%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day103PA	.054	.277	.559	2.6%	0
Night154PA	.107	.344	.675	3.9%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty87PA	.091	.312	.622	1
Runners On111PA	.086	.309	.615	1
RISP71PA	.053	.228	.510	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs92PA	.073	.341	.678	0
1 Out79PA	.117	.338	.629	1
2 Outs86PA	.067	.267	.569	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-024PA	—	.182	.390	0
1-06PA	—	.167	.333	0
0-127PA	.154	.462	.795	0
2-05PA	1.000	2.000	3.000	1
0-231PA	.103	.379	.670	0
3-07PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-240PA	.053	.237	.437	0
2-244PA	.023	.159	.295	0
3-238PA	—	.080	.475	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Sat.