Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

18.9%

+430

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (RHP) (0.99 HR/9) · park 127

2+ RBI

14.4%

+596

RBI 1+

37.4%

+167

Hits 1+

67.8%

-210

Hits 2+

25.8%

+287

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

30.5%

95% CI · 30.0–31.0%

+228

Fair odds

1st AB

6.4%

Through AB2

12.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+27%
vs SP-34%
Contact+17%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast+23%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs José Soriano (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 127)
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0581 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-34% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park+27% (×1.27)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+17% (×1.17)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games

Now

+430

High

+460

Low

+320

Med

+402

Avg

+388

+430

Low +320High +460

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

25.0

Proj PA

395

HR / PA

.063

ISO

.261

wOBA

.376

wRC+

139

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

20.9

Hard%

42.3

FB%

33.3

Pull%

45.3

Soft%

15.4

GB%

51.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

21.4

Hard%

47.3

FB%

25.5

Pull%

43.6

Soft%

16.4

GB%

50.9

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

20.8

Hard%

40.4

FB%

36.3

Pull%

45.9

Soft%

15.1

GB%

52.1

Home

HR/FB

27.6

Hard%

45.3

FB%

30.5

Pull%

51.6

Soft%

15.8

GB%

56.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

15.8

Hard%

39.6

FB%

35.8

Pull%

39.6

Soft%

15.1

GB%

47.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Angel Stadium is a hitter's haven (+27 for RHB)
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (SI, FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (51% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .969 OPS over last 15 days
Park boost (127)
Elite barrel% (12.4)
High barrels/PA (8.7%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.319↑ vs season .27559 PA · 15d

OPS

.969

ISO

.192

RBI

K-BB

10-12

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ LAA	4	0	1	2	—
06-10	vs BOS	3	1	1	1	.333
06-09	vs BOS	4	1	0	1	.500
06-08	vs BOS	3	1	1	1	.333
06-07	@ MIA	4	0	0	0	—
06-06	@ MIA	5	0	0	3	—
06-05	@ MIA	3	3	2	0	1.667
06-03	vs DET	4	1	0	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR50PA	.250	.400	9.1	48.5	58	15.4
🐾CUCurveballvR10PA	—	.246	0.0	25.0	50	40.0
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR40PA	.278	.453	14.3	71.4	39	20.3
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.250	.462	25.0	56.2	44	7.4	162	19
vs RHPTONIGHT	.250	.400	9.1	48.5	58	15.4	134	50

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.246	0.0	25.0	50	40.0	134	10

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.357	.512	20.0	70.0	50	22.9	162	22
vs RHPTONIGHT	.278	.453	14.3	71.4	39	20.3	134	40

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

127

vs SHB

106

Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Caminero.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 22 of 43 career HRs (51%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.216

Barrel %

12.4

Hard Hit %

49.0

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.370

xBA

.275

Brl / PA %

8.70

Max EV (mph)

116.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

114.3

Avg EV on HRs

107.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

407

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

4/13

Crushed (105+ mph)

8/13

Avg LA on HRs

25.2°

Brl / PA %

8.70

Sampled across 13 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.400
Whiff%
15.4
HH%
48.5
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
58
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.246
Whiff%
40.0
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 10 PA this season.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.453
Whiff%
20.3
HH%
71.4
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
39
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs José Soriano (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.600AVG · small sample (5 PA)

OPS

1.400

RBI

K-BB

2-0

José Soriano (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	26.5	9.3	47.3	69	.383	17.6
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.2	—	26.2	—	.249	26.3
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	18.0	47.9	50	.417	18.1
FSSplit-Finger	19.4	2.5	17.9	73	.200	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	58.3	72	.472	4.5	45
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.7	38.5	67	.311	25.8	52

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	50.0	57	.464	16.3	49
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.6	40

FSSplit-Finger19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	18.8	78	.197	25.3	56
vs RHB	12.5	25.0	50	.214	23.8	13

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .545). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Angel Stadium (330/400/330 ft) · elev 153ft

13 HRs this season

vs RHP 10vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

SISinker3

SLSlider1

KCKnuckle-Curve1

FSSplitter1

FCCutter1

STSweeper1

CUCurveball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP207PA	.220	.495	.852	12.8%	11
vs LHP84PA	.194	.463	.880	14.3%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home141PA	.265	.573	.991	16.7%	8
🐾Away150PA	.167	.409	.742	10.0%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day132PA	.228	.500	.864	13.3%	7
🐾Night159PA	.200	.474	.858	13.1%	7

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty99PA	.238	.568	.972	6
Runners On129PA	.169	.421	.793	4
RISP70PA	.141	.316	.630	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs98PA	.193	.446	.803	4
1 Out94PA	.341	.682	1.086	8
2 Outs99PA	.099	.321	.685	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-026PA	.384	.692	1.000	3
1-021PA	.047	.190	.333	0
0-130PA	.069	.310	.544	0
2-014PA	.286	.786	1.286	1
0-220PA	.150	.250	.350	1
3-012PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-234PA	.059	.294	.529	0
2-247PA	.192	.426	.660	2
3-239PA	.107	.393	.880	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.