Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.1%

+662

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (1.03 HR/9) · park 97

2+ RBI

11.2%

+791

RBI 1+

34.6%

+189

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.4%

95% CI · 9.1–9.8%

+960

Fair odds

1st AB

2.3%

Through AB2

4.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind-2%
vs SP+3%
Contact+11%
SP Contact-6%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0245 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+3% (×1.03) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+740

High

+920

Low

+480

Med

+750

Avg

+770

+740

Low +480High +920

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.4

Proj PA

151

HR / PA

.022

ISO

.131

wOBA

.307

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

38.2

FB%

32.4

Pull%

38.2

Soft%

14.7

GB%

48.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

28.0

FB%

32.0

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

16.0

GB%

36.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

44.2

FB%

32.6

Pull%

37.2

Soft%

14.0

GB%

55.8

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

40.0

FB%

37.1

Pull%

45.7

Soft%

14.3

GB%

42.9

🐾Away

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

36.4

FB%

27.3

Pull%

30.3

Soft%

15.2

GB%

54.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.286↑ vs season .25022 PA · 15d

OPS

.889

ISO

.285

RBI

K-BB

2-1

Game Log · Last 6

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs SD	2	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-16	vs SD	4	1	0	1	0	0	.500
06-15	vs SD	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-14	@ MIN	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-13	@ MIN	4	2	1	3	0	0	1.750
💣 418ft · 110.2 EV · 4-Seamer
06-12	@ MIN	4	2	0	1	0	2	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seamer9PA	.556	.381	11.1	77.8	56	16.7
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seamer

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.428	.456	14.3	85.7	71	20.0	—	7

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Jordan.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.381
Whiff%
16.7
HH%
77.8
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
56
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
22
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Noah Cameron arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.5	10.8	52.5	55	.362	9.8
CHChangeup	21.9	4.3	22.7	60	.262	20.0
FCCutter	19.4	5.3	37.0	74	.354	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	17.1	13.0	30.0	87	.185	26.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.0	16
vs RHB	7.8	52.9	55	.334	9.9	63

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	50	.119	30.8	9
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.7	23.3	61	.280	18.3	61

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	35.3	77	.306	27.3	22
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	73	.374	14.3	48

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	27.8	83	.190	25.6	42

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Tonight's SP throws (top 3)

FF 29%
CH 22%
FC 19%

Heatmap below = batter's season-wide damage on all pitches. Per-pitch slices populate on the next pipeline refresh.

Hover / tap a cell to inspect.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 6.0 games · 22 PA (1 HR in 6 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP16PA	.267	.600	.975	6.7%	1
vs LHP6PA	.333	.500	.667	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home10PA	.111	.222	.422	—	0
🐾Away12PA	.416	.833	1.250	10.0%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day11PA	.500	.800	1.164	9.1%	1
🐾Night11PA	.091	.364	.637	—	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty4PA	—	.250	.500	0
Runners On11PA	.363	.727	1.091	1
RISP7PA	.572	1.143	1.714	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs8PA	.286	.429	.679	0
1 Out4PA	—	.500	1.000	0
2 Outs10PA	.400	.700	1.000	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.