Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

7.6%

+1216

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Zack Wheeler (RHP) (1.12 HR/9) · park 92

2+ RBI

8.2%

+1123

RBI 1+

31.8%

+214

Hits 1+

61.1%

-157

Hits 2+

19.0%

+427

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

3.1%

95% CI · 2.9–3.3%

+3091

Fair odds

1st AB

0.8%

Through AB2

1.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
vs SP-13%
Contact-23%
Statcast-16%
SP Statcast-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Zack Wheeler (RHP)

·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0143 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-13% (×0.87) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-23% (×0.77)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

SP Statcast allowed-1% (×0.99)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games · 1 HR

Now

+1215

High

+1505

Low

+795

Med

+948

Avg

+1072

🐾+1215

Low +795🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1505

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+13002026-06-06vs TBbook line

HomeBat 6thoff LHPSlider

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.5

Proj PA

200

HR / PA

.013

ISO

.112

wOBA

.305

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.0

Hard%

23.5

FB%

37.6

Pull%

50.7

Soft%

19.9

GB%

46.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

28.6

FB%

42.5

Pull%

45.2

Soft%

16.7

GB%

45.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

21.3

FB%

35.5

Pull%

53.2

Soft%

21.3

GB%

47.3

Home

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

28.7

FB%

38.5

Pull%

56.3

Soft%

17.5

GB%

42.3

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

16.1

FB%

36.4

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

23.2

GB%

52.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Citizens Bank Park suppresses HRs (92)
Park drag (92)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.212↓ vs season .23535 PA · 15d

OPS

.590

ISO

.121

RBI

K-BB

5-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ PIT	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-12	@ PIT	3	1	0	0	1	0	.667
06-11	vs ARI	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	vs ARI	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-09	vs ARI	1	1	0	2	0	0	1.000
06-07	vs TB	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs TB	4	3	1	2	0	1	1.500
💣 362ft · 96.5 EV · Slider
06-05	vs TB	3	1	0	0	0	1	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR27PA	.043	.285	0.0	42.9	43	6.4
🐾SISinkervR27PA	.042	.336	0.0	30.4	57	2.7
🐾STSweepervR11PA	—	.152	0.0	22.2	78	15.0
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.158	.297	6.2	37.5	50	20.0	96	20
vs RHPTONIGHT	.043	.285	0.0	42.9	43	6.4	82	27

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.278	0.0	66.7	50	8.3	96	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.042	.336	0.0	30.4	57	2.7	82	27

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.152	0.0	22.2	78	15.0	82	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

131

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Sanoja.

Season Statcast

ISO

.111

Barrel %

1.5

Hard Hit %

30.9

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.264

xBA

.235

Brl / PA %

1.20

Max EV (mph)

106.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.4

Avg EV on HRs

105.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

375

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/1

Avg LA on HRs

21.0°

Brl / PA %

1.20

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Zack Wheeler · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
39
xwOBA
.285
Whiff%
6.4
HH%
42.9
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
43
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.336
Whiff%
2.7
HH%
30.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
57
STSweepervs RHP
Use%
14
xwOBA
.152
Whiff%
15.0
HH%
22.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
78
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 11 PA this season.

Career vs Zack Wheeler (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

2-0

Zack Wheeler (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	38.9	9.1	43.2	46	.244	22.7
SISinker	16.7	10.3	35.9	49	.321	14.3
STSweeper	13.5	5.9	23.5	71	.341	17.1
FSSplit-Finger	12.7	4.2	29.2	75	.257	19.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	41.2	47	.258	19.1	53
vs RHB	10.0	50.0	40	.208	31.0	20

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.117	15.4	6
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	40.0	51	.354	13.6	39

STSweeper14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	71	.633	0.0	8
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	70	.204	20.7	17

FSSplit-Finger13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.3	31.6	74	.326	9.4	22
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	20.0	80	.119	42.9	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .346). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 0vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 26 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP113PA	.077	.337	.650	—	0
vs LHP52PA	.184	.429	.717	4.3%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home98PA	.122	.422	.773	2.4%	2
🐾Away67PA	.096	.286	.525	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day78PA	.122	.392	.691	1.4%	1
Night87PA	.101	.342	.652	1.4%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty55PA	.098	.392	.737	0
Runners On73PA	.100	.371	.663	1
RISP54PA	.118	.412	.733	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs51PA	.111	.267	.507	1
1 Out56PA	.153	.538	.967	1
2 Outs58PA	.072	.286	.527	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Mon.