Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.1%

+1141

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trevor McDonald (RHP) (0.69 HR/9) · park 75

2+ RBI

8.4%

+1086

RBI 1+

32.0%

+212

Hits 1+

64.7%

-183

Hits 2+

22.5%

+344

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.6%

95% CI · 15.2–16.0%

+541

Fair odds

1st AB

3.7%

Through AB2

7.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-25%
vs SP-18%
Contact+16%
SP Contact+11%
Statcast+18%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0408 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-18% (×0.82) · blended_proj

Park-25% (×0.75)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+16% (×1.16)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+18% (×1.18)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games · 1 HR

Now

+1140

High

+1445

Low

+280

Med

+558

Avg

+659

🐾+1140

Low +280🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1445

WARMspot score 94

Just below his HR money zone (+925 to +925). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

17.2

Proj PA

386

HR / PA

.045

ISO

.214

wOBA

.340

wRC+

117

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.8

Hard%

41.9

FB%

47.8

Pull%

49.5

Soft%

16.1

GB%

36.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

13.6

Hard%

33.3

FB%

40.0

Pull%

42.1

Soft%

17.5

GB%

43.6

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

45.7

FB%

51.2

Pull%

52.7

Soft%

15.5

GB%

33.6

Home

HR/FB

13.6

Hard%

38.5

FB%

50.6

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

11.0

GB%

41.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

11.9

Hard%

45.3

FB%

45.2

Pull%

55.8

Soft%

21.1

GB%

32.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Oracle Park suppresses HRs (75)
Trevor McDonald stingy: only 0.69 HR/9
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (SI, SL)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (59% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.167 OPS over last 15 days
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (75)
High barrels/PA (7.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.69 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.375↑ vs season .25660 PA · 15d

OPS

1.167

ISO

.375

RBI

K-BB

13-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ SF	4	1	0	0	0	1	.500
06-11	@ COL	5	2	0	0	0	0	.600
06-10	@ COL	4	1	0	0	0	0	.750
06-09	@ COL	4	0	0	0	1	3	—
06-07	vs SF	5	1	0	0	0	2	.200
06-06	vs SF	5	4	2	2	0	0	2.000
💣 403ft · 104.2 EV · Splitter💣 386ft · 105.4 EV · Sinker
06-05	vs SF	2	1	0	0	1	0	.500
06-04	vs ATH	4	2	1	2	0	2	1.250
💣 383ft · 110.1 EV · Slider

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR13PA	.334	.492	18.2	45.5	82	15.0
🐾SLSlidervR20PA	.374	.528	14.3	50.0	79	23.6
🐾CHChangeupvR33PA	.069	.287	0.0	50.0	68	30.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.100	.462	5.6	38.9	72	12.8	129	26
vs RHPTONIGHT	.334	.492	18.2	45.5	82	15.0	116	13

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.389	.410	33.3	66.7	83	45.0	129	19
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.374	.528	14.3	50.0	79	23.6	116	20

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.069	.287	0.0	50.0	68	30.6	116	33

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

100

vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Crow-Armstrong.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 10 of 17 career HRs (59%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.187

Barrel %

11.3

Hard Hit %

48.9

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.353

xBA

.256

Brl / PA %

7.20

Max EV (mph)

114.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.3

Avg EV on HRs

105.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

382

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/5

Avg LA on HRs

27.0°

Brl / PA %

7.20

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trevor McDonald · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
58
xwOBA
.492
Whiff%
15.0
HH%
45.5
BRL%
18.2
Pull%
82
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.528
Whiff%
23.6
HH%
50.0
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
79
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
13
xwOBA
.287
Whiff%
30.6
HH%
50.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
68

Career vs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.666

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Trevor McDonald (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	57.5	3.5	41.8	57	.303	23.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	28.9	4.3	40.9	57	.267	24.2
CHChangeup	13.2	20.0	30.0	60	.375	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker58% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.2	43.8	63	.329	21.1	60
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.6	42.1	50	.274	26.5	54

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	13	.335	22.2	19
vs RHB	6.7	46.7	80	.216	23.1	24

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	22.2	33.3	56	.421	24.1	17
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .506). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

STSweeper1

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP198PA	.211	.455	.775	11.5%	8
vs LHP97PA	.142	.424	.795	9.8%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home144PA	.190	.460	.810	12.5%	6
🐾Away151PA	.186	.430	.755	9.5%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day125PA	.156	.367	.671	9.4%	4
🐾Night170PA	.211	.500	.861	12.3%	7

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty86PA	.190	.418	.709	4
Runners On131PA	.196	.500	.892	6
RISP73PA	.191	.508	.905	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs103PA	.132	.396	.739	1
1 Out103PA	.256	.489	.809	7
2 Outs89PA	.175	.450	.798	3

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-047PA	.070	.372	.713	1
1-022PA	.421	.684	1.002	2
0-122PA	.682	1.273	1.864	4
2-03PA	—	.333	.667	0
0-231PA	.194	.355	.516	2
3-03PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-251PA	.100	.280	.476	0
2-243PA	.024	.143	.282	0
3-243PA	.222	.370	.835	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.