Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.3%

+710

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joey Estes (RHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 114

2+ RBI

10.8%

+827

RBI 1+

34.2%

+193

Hits 1+

64.2%

-179

Hits 2+

22.0%

+355

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.0%

95% CI · 7.6–8.3%

+1158

Fair odds

1st AB

2.2%

Through AB2

4.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
Temp+5%
vs SP+40%
Contact-14%
Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Joey Estes (RHP)

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·87F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0161 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+40% (×1.40) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-14% (×0.86)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-4% (×0.96)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games

Now

+710

High

+1495

Low

+465

Med

+742

Avg

+794

+710

Low +465High +1495

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.1

Proj PA

238

HR / PA

.017

ISO

.126

wOBA

.329

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

6.4

Hard%

37.8

FB%

32.9

Pull%

38.5

Soft%

16.1

GB%

41.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

5.6

Hard%

45.7

FB%

39.1

Pull%

39.1

Soft%

10.9

GB%

26.1

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

6.9

Hard%

34.0

FB%

29.9

Pull%

38.1

Soft%

18.6

GB%

48.5

Home

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

43.5

FB%

40.6

Pull%

29.0

Soft%

17.4

GB%

36.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

5.3

Hard%

32.4

FB%

25.7

Pull%

47.3

Soft%

14.9

GB%

45.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Las Vegas Ballpark mild HR boost (+14)
Hot streak: .935 OPS over last 15 days
87°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (114)
High barrels/PA (4.1%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.333↑ vs season .25345 PA · 15d

OPS

.935

ISO

.180

RBI

K-BB

5-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ ATH	4	2	0	0	0	.500
06-11	vs CHC	2	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	vs CHC	3	0	0	0	0	—
06-09	vs CHC	3	2	0	1	0	.667
06-07	vs MIL	3	0	0	1	0	—
06-06	vs MIL	3	2	1	1	0	1.333
06-05	vs MIL	2	1	0	0	1	.500
06-03	@ LAA	4	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
FF4-Seam FastballvR56PA	.159	.358	2.9	50.0	47	5.1
SLSlidervR35PA	.035	.324	4.8	28.6	57	45.3
STSweepervR18PA	.083	.366	0.0	20.0	60	31.0
SISinkervR31PA	.035	.219	0.0	39.1	74	14.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.153	.446	9.1	59.1	41	6.5	80	29
vs RHPTONIGHT	.159	.358	2.9	50.0	47	5.1	75	56

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.156	0.0	0.0	60	27.8	80	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.035	.324	4.8	28.6	57	45.3	75	35

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.083	.366	0.0	20.0	60	31.0	75	18

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.500	.535	16.7	100.0	17	21.1	80	7
vs RHPTONIGHT	.035	.219	0.0	39.1	74	14.8	75	31

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Karros.

Season Statcast

ISO

.106

Barrel %

6.3

Hard Hit %

40.6

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.332

xBA

.253

Brl / PA %

4.10

Max EV (mph)

111.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.9

Avg EV on HRs

105.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

448

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/1

Avg LA on HRs

30.0°

Brl / PA %

4.10

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .397). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP155PA	.094	.305	.640	3.7%	2
vs LHP71PA	.121	.394	.718	10.2%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home104PA	.151	.407	.782	7.8%	2
🐾Away122PA	.065	.278	.573	3.8%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day77PA	.106	.303	.615	3.5%	1
🐾Night149PA	.102	.352	.694	7.1%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty74PA	.060	.284	.581	0
Runners On98PA	.088	.288	.615	1
RISP63PA	.140	.320	.637	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs73PA	.172	.469	.853	2
1 Out82PA	.104	.328	.669	1
2 Outs71PA	.031	.206	.474	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-023PA	.136	.591	1.026	1
1-014PA	.286	.786	1.286	1
0-117PA	.059	.353	.647	0
2-02PA	—	—	—	0
0-219PA	.111	.333	.596	0
3-06PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-225PA	—	.040	.080	0
2-233PA	.091	.333	.576	0
3-252PA	.054	.162	.528	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.