Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
9.3%
+973
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs George Kirby (RHP) (0.86 HR/9) · park 92
Batting #8Projected lineup
2+ RBI
9.1%
+996
RBI 1+
32.7%
+206
Hits 1+
57.7%
-137
Hits 2+
16.1%
+523
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
16.7%
95% CI · 16.3–17.1%
+500
Fair odds
1st AB
4.0%
Through AB2
7.7%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
Park-8%
Wind-2%
vs SP-15%
Contact+22%
SP Contact-2%
Statcast+13%
SP Statcast-4%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs George Kirby (RHP)
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0419 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-15% (×0.85) · blended_proj
Park-8% (×0.92)
Wind-2% (×0.98)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+22% (×1.22)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+13% (×1.13)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)-2% (×0.98)
SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)
Discipline-1% (×0.99)
HR Odds History
Price range · 13 games · 3 HR
Now
+975
High
+4000
Low
+460
Med
+535
Avg
+1141
🐾🐾🐾+975
Low +460🐾 HR money zoneHigh +4000
🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100
Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 3× priced here.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
🐾+9452026-06-05vs TORbook line
AwayBat 6thoff RHPSlider
🐾+7002026-06-02vs BOSbook line
AwayBat 6thoff LHPCurveball
🐾+4602026-05-28vs TORbook line
Homeoff LHPSinker
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-16 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
8.7
Proj PA
183
HR / PA
.048
ISO
.214
wOBA
.325
wRC+
106
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-16 · FG
Season
HR/FB
17.0
Hard%
42.7
FB%
45.3
Pull%
53.8
Soft%
13.7
GB%
37.6
vs LHP
HR/FB
30.0
Hard%
50.0
FB%
52.6
Pull%
52.6
Soft%
10.5
GB%
31.6
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
9.1
Hard%
39.2
FB%
41.8
Pull%
54.4
Soft%
15.2
GB%
40.5
Home
HR/FB
14.8
Hard%
45.8
FB%
45.8
Pull%
59.3
Soft%
16.9
GB%
33.9
🐾Away
HR/FB
19.2
Hard%
39.7
FB%
44.8
Pull%
48.3
Soft%
10.3
GB%
41.4
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
2.0 🐾
DART THROW
🏟T-Mobile Park suppresses HRs (92)
🛡George Kirby stingy: only 0.86 HR/9
🔥Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SI)
·Park drag (92)
·High barrels/PA (6.1%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.179↓ vs season .21740 PA · 15d
OPS
.662
ISO
.283
HR
3
RBI
7
K-BB
18-1
Game Log · Last 8
Date
Opp
AB
H
HR
RBI
BB
K
SLG
06-14
vs SD
1
0
0
0
0
1
—
06-13
vs SD
2
1
0
0
0
0
1.000
06-12
vs SD
4
0
0
0
0
3
—
06-11
vs SEA
3
1
0
0
0
1
.333
06-09
vs SEA
5
1
1
1
0
2
.800
💣 422ft · 110.2 EV · Sinker
06-08
vs SEA
3
0
0
0
1
1
—
06-06
@ TOR
4
0
0
0
0
3
—
06-05
@ TOR
5
1
1
2
0
1
.800
💣 396ft · 106.2 EV · Slider
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.
Pitch
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR37PA
.035
.357
5.3
42.1
63
13.9
🐾STSweepervR24PA
.044
.108
0.0
26.7
73
37.0
🐾SISinkervR21PA
.158
.344
5.6
50.0
72
5.4
🐾CUCurveballvR8PA
—
.131
0.0
33.3
67
57.1
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
.333
.440
10.0
60.0
67
10.0
196
18
vs RHPTONIGHT
.035
.357
5.3
42.1
63
13.9
30
37
STSweeper
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT
.044
.108
0.0
26.7
73
37.0
30
24
SISinker
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
.667
.599
27.3
63.6
55
28.0
196
13
vs RHPTONIGHT
.158
.344
5.6
50.0
72
5.4
30
21
CUCurveball
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT
—
.131
0.0
33.3
67
57.1
30
8
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
108
🐾vs RHB
92
vs SHB
100
T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Mayo.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Tonight: Batting #8Projected0 of 1 HRs · 0%
🐾 Hottest from spot #7 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).
Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Tonight's Pitch Matchup
George Kirby · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Tough matchup
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.357
Whiff%
13.9
HH%
42.1
BRL%
5.3
Pull%
63
STSweepervs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.108
Whiff%
37.0
HH%
26.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
73
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 24 PA this season.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.344
Whiff%
5.4
HH%
50.0
BRL%
5.6
Pull%
72
Career vs George Kirby (RHP)
🐾 Tonight's matchup
—AVG · small sample (4 PA)
OPS
—
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
2-0
George Kirby (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
Pitch
Use%
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball
31.7
7.0
42.0
48
.318
16.0
STSweeper
27.9
6.6
28.4
50
.243
21.6
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT
19.9
7.9
54.9
44
.306
24.6
CUCurveball
10.2
—
50.0
—
.317
7.1
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball32% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB
3.9
39.2
57
.297
18.5
66
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT
11.4
48.6
34
.350
16.7
52
STSweeper28% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB
3.7
33.3
52
.224
22.6
47
vs RHB
8.2
26.5
49
.258
21.4
67
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
14.3
42.9
14
.261
24.0
14
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT
7.1
58.9
48
.317
24.0
75
🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches
Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.
🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .466). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft
5 HRs this season
vs RHP 2vs LHP 3
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
SL🐾Slider3
CHChangeup1
SISinker1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought🐾 DUE
4
games since last HR
10
PAs since last HR
Homers about every 4.0 games · 14 PA (2 HR in 8 G)
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾vs RHP141PA
.094
.242
.462
4.9%
3
vs LHP56PA
.423
.731
1.088
21.4%
6
Location
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
Home100PA
.198
.407
.677
10.0%
4
🐾Away97PA
.180
.360
.607
10.9%
5
Time
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
Day90PA
.150
.338
.605
6.7%
2
🐾Night107PA
.220
.420
.672
14.1%
7
Base State
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
Bases Empty75PA
.134
.343
.636
2
Runners On83PA
.231
.436
.677
5
RISP55PA
.200
.380
.616
3
Outs
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
0 Outs59PA
.132
.264
.484
2
1 Out71PA
.274
.532
.870
5
2 Outs67PA
.153
.338
.547
2
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Wed.
