Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.5%

+768

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Reid Detmers (LHP) (0.72 HR/9) · park 106

Batting #7Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

10.3%

+867

RBI 1+

33.8%

+196

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.0%

95% CI · 11.6–12.4%

+733

Fair odds

1st AB

2.9%

Through AB2

5.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+6%
Temp+5%
vs SP-12%
Contact+25%
SP Contact-3%
SP Statcast-3%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Reid Detmers (LHP)

·109F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0239 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-12% (×0.89) · blended_proj

Park+6% (×1.06)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+25% (×1.25)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 4 games

Now

+850

High

+6990

Low

+805

Med

+6238

Avg

+5068

+850

Low +805High +6990

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.1

Proj PA

252

HR / PA

.024

ISO

.149

wOBA

.313

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

31.6

FB%

47.4

Pull%

57.9

Soft%

21.1

GB%

36.8

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

16.7

FB%

33.3

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

33.3

GB%

33.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

38.5

FB%

53.8

Pull%

61.5

Soft%

15.4

GB%

38.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

33.3

Hard%

44.4

FB%

33.3

Pull%

66.7

Soft%

33.3

GB%

44.4

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

20.0

FB%

60.0

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

10.0

GB%

30.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Chase Field mild HR boost (+6)
Reid Detmers stingy: only 0.72 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
110°F — ball flies in warm air
16 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.72 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.182↓ vs season .25015 PA · 15d

OPS

.582

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

2-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs LAA	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-15	vs LAA	2	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-14	@ CIN	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-12	@ CIN	4	2	0	2	0	1	.500
04-02	vs ATL	2	1	1	1	0	1	2.000
💣 424ft · 105.5 EV · 4-Seamer
04-01	vs DET	3	1	0	0	0	1	.333
03-31	vs DET	3	1	0	0	0	1	.333
03-30	vs DET	3	2	0	1	1	0	.667

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL6PA	—	.401	0.0	—	75	17.6
🐾SLSlider	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.401	0.0	0.0	75	17.6	—	6
vs RHP	.445	.403	16.7	66.7	50	21.4	—	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

106

vs SHB

Chase Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Lawlar.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.5

Avg EV on HRs

105.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

424

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/1

Avg LA on HRs

28.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Reid Detmers · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
45
xwOBA
.401
Whiff%
17.6
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlider
Use%
32
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
CHChangeup
Use%
12
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Reid Detmers (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	44.5	8.9	48.5	44	.285	18.2
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.5	4.7	27.4	63	.223	25.7
CHChangeup	11.7	10.3	34.5	76	.335	18.9
CUCurveball	10.1	0.0	—	77	.241	23.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball45% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.8	51.7	48	.307	19.5	41
vs RHB	6.9	47.2	42	.277	17.1	105

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.2	33.3	46	.243	18.0	35
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.0	25.0	73	.216	29.1	87

CHChangeup12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	10.3	34.5	76	.343	15.6	36

CUCurveball10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	100	.270	20.0	6
vs RHB	0.0	9.1	73	.233	23.5	23

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #1 (xwOBA .452). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ARI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Chase Field (330/407/335 ft) · elev 1086ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 28 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP21PA	.222	.500	.881	5.6%	1
🐾vs LHP12PA	—	.333	.833	9.1%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home17PA	.230	.615	1.144	10.5%	1
Away16PA	.072	.286	.599	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day7PA	—	.167	.453	8.3%	0
🐾Night26PA	.191	.524	.986	5.9%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty11PA	—	.222	.586
Runners On15PA	—	.333	.800
RISP9PA	—	.286	.730

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs9PA	.500	.875	1.319	1
1 Out11PA	—	.111	.384	0
2 Outs13PA	—	.400	.938	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Night · Tue.