Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

8.1%

+1130

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs J.T. Ginn (RHP) (1.01 HR/9) · park 114

2+ RBI

8.5%

+1080

RBI 1+

32.1%

+212

Hits 1+

70.9%

-244

Hits 2+

29.6%

+238

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.3%

95% CI · 5.0–5.5%

+1792

Fair odds

1st AB

1.3%

Through AB2

2.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
Temp+5%
vs SP-2%
Contact-13%
SP Contact-1%
Statcast-14%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs J.T. Ginn (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·93F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0152 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-13% (×0.87)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-14% (×0.86)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games

Now

+1020

High

+1575

Low

+750

Med

+938

Avg

+947

+1020

Low +750High +1575

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.8

Proj PA

316

HR / PA

.015

ISO

.123

wOBA

.320

wRC+

101

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

3.7

Hard%

34.8

FB%

27.4

Pull%

43.9

Soft%

18.7

GB%

53.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

36.4

FB%

30.9

Pull%

41.8

Soft%

18.2

GB%

50.9

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

5.4

Hard%

34.3

FB%

26.1

Pull%

44.8

Soft%

18.9

GB%

54.2

Home

HR/FB

3.2

Hard%

33.3

FB%

30.7

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

18.6

GB%

50.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

4.3

Hard%

36.5

FB%

24.0

Pull%

55.2

Soft%

18.8

GB%

56.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Sutter Health Park mild HR boost (+14)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (43% of career HRs)
93°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (114)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.271↓ vs season .29651 PA · 15d

OPS

.752

ISO

.167

RBI

K-BB

10-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	vs MIA	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-12	vs MIA	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-11	vs LAD	5	2	0	0	1	.400
06-10	vs LAD	3	0	0	1	1	—
06-09	vs LAD	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	@ ATL	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	@ ATL	4	2	1	0	1	.750
06-05	@ ATL	4	1	1	0	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR59PA	.018	.281	0.0	37.8	58	17.6
🐾FCCuttervR15PA	.071	.349	0.0	21.4	64	10.7
🐾CHChangeupvR8PA	.125	.377	0.0	50.0	67	21.4
🐾SLSlidervR26PA	.291	.445	8.7	39.1	78	23.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.397	0.0	83.3	33	15.0	68	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	.018	.281	0.0	37.8	58	17.6	115	59

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.214	0.0	50.0	63	8.7	68	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.071	.349	0.0	21.4	64	10.7	115	15

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.084	.304	0.0	10.0	70	35.5	68	14
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.125	.377	0.0	50.0	67	21.4	115	8

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.334	0.0	33.3	56	17.4	68	12
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.291	.445	8.7	39.1	78	23.7	115	26

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Gonzales.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 3 of 7 career HRs (43%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.070

Barrel %

3.0

Hard Hit %

37.9

xwOBA

.329

xBA

.296

Brl / PA %

2.30

Max EV (mph)

109.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.7

Avg EV on HRs

—

Avg HR Distance (ft)

—

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

—

Crushed (105+ mph)

—

Avg LA on HRs

—

Brl / PA %

2.30

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

J.T. Ginn · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
35
xwOBA
.281
Whiff%
17.6
HH%
37.8
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
58
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.349
Whiff%
10.7
HH%
21.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
64
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
18
xwOBA
.377
Whiff%
21.4
HH%
50.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
67

J.T. Ginn (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	35.0	6.8	41.2	62	.351	29.1
FCCutter	18.6	8.3	38.2	75	.343	15.8
CHChangeup	18.3	5.6	26.5	75	.180	23.1
SLSlider	16.0	5.7	39.4	66	.292	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	9.4	40.6	75	.404	25.6	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.8	45.2	52	.309	31.4	68

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	13.6	50.0	82	.454	12.5	31
vs RHB	0.0	21.4	64	.143	—	15

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	29.4	77	.190	24.2	51
vs RHB	no sample

SLSlider16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.6	50.0	50	.391	18.5	24
vs RHB	5.9	35.3	82	.202	19.1	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .394). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP182PA	.093	.409	.766	3.3%	2
vs LHP81PA	.014	.264	.585	1.7%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home133PA	.057	.333	.664	2.7%	1
🐾Away130PA	.083	.400	.762	3.0%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day104PA	.083	.333	.641	3.6%	1
🐾Night159PA	.061	.388	.759	2.4%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty69PA	.031	.277	.567	0
Runners On129PA	.103	.448	.851	2
RISP76PA	.077	.415	.836	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs95PA	.076	.359	.664	1
1 Out80PA	.068	.446	.859	0
2 Outs88PA	.065	.299	.629	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Mon.