Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

16.1%

+520

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joey Cantillo (LHP) (1.48 HR/9) · park 70

2+ RBI

12.9%

+677

RBI 1+

36.1%

+177

Hits 1+

70.3%

-237

Hits 2+

28.9%

+246

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

17.8%

95% CI · 17.3–18.2%

+463

Fair odds

1st AB

4.8%

Through AB2

9.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-30%
Temp+5%
Contact+20%
SP Contact+9%
Statcast+24%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Joey Cantillo (LHP)

·85F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0381 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-0% (×1.00) · blended_proj

Park-30% (×0.70)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games · 1 HR

Now

+520

High

+955

Low

+415

Med

+558

Avg

+596

🐾+520

Low +415🐾 HR money zoneHigh +955

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.2

Proj PA

275

HR / PA

.037

ISO

.186

wOBA

.333

wRC+

111

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

20.3

Hard%

41.8

FB%

44.6

Pull%

42.4

Soft%

14.1

GB%

34.5

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

17.4

Hard%

38.5

FB%

44.2

Pull%

42.3

Soft%

11.5

GB%

36.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

21.4

Hard%

43.2

FB%

44.8

Pull%

42.4

Soft%

15.2

GB%

33.6

Home

HR/FB

15.9

Hard%

43.8

FB%

49.4

Pull%

41.6

Soft%

12.4

GB%

34.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

23.7

Hard%

39.6

FB%

41.8

Pull%

44.0

Soft%

15.4

GB%

34.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Progressive Field suppresses HRs (70)
Elite power: .267 ISO
13.6% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
52.0% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Hot streak: 1.092 OPS over last 15 days
86°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (70)
Elite barrel% (13.6)
High barrels/PA (9.3%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.320↑ vs season .29254 PA · 15d

OPS

1.092

ISO

.420

RBI

K-BB

9-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ CLE	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-11	vs MIN	5	3	0	0	0	1	.800
06-10	vs MIN	5	1	0	1	0	3	.200
06-09	vs MIN	5	4	2	4	0	1	2.200
💣 367ft · 97.2 EV · Sweeper💣 382ft · 99.9 EV · Curveball
06-07	vs SEA	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-06	vs SEA	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-05	vs SEA	4	1	0	1	0	0	.250
06-03	@ TB	4	2	1	4	0	0	1.250
💣 361ft · 104.4 EV · Cutter

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL23PA	.250	.326	12.5	37.5	56	8.9
🐾CHChangeupvL26PA	.083	.272	12.5	62.5	63	32.7
🐾CUCurveball18PA	.353	.274	12.5	36.4	63	32.4
🐾SLSlidervL6PA	1.200	.472	0.0	40.0	60	18.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.250	.326	12.5	37.5	56	8.9	96	23
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.163	.490	21.9	65.6	50	16.1	155	49

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.083	.272	12.5	62.5	63	32.7	96	26
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.750	.352	0.0	57.1	86	26.3	155	8

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.545	.321	14.3	42.9	57	27.8	155	12

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	1.200	.472	0.0	40.0	60	18.2	96	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.666	.527	18.8	56.2	88	20.0	155	19

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

124

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Progressive Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Dingler.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 1 of 2 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.267

Barrel %

13.6

Hard Hit %

52.0

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.398

xBA

.292

Brl / PA %

9.30

Max EV (mph)

110.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.0

Avg EV on HRs

103.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

405

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/11

Crushed (105+ mph)

5/11

Avg LA on HRs

30.6°

Brl / PA %

9.30

Sampled across 11 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Joey Cantillo · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
42
xwOBA
.326
Whiff%
8.9
HH%
37.5
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
56
CHChangeupvs LHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.272
Whiff%
32.7
HH%
62.5
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
63
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 26 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
19
xwOBA
.274
Whiff%
32.4
HH%
36.4
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
63
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 18 PA this season.

Career vs Joey Cantillo (LHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

1.500

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Joey Cantillo (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	41.8	12.6	45.8	48	.386	12.6
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	28.5	4.0	24.5	74	.274	23.8
CUCurveball	19.2	3.0	34.4	70	.249	22.4
SLSlider	9.0	10.5	36.8	58	.340	4.2

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball42% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	8.3	45.8	50	.393	8.8	34
vs RHB	14.3	44.4	48	.384	15.7	92

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.0	20.0	60	.274	25.0	17
vs RHB	2.2	24.4	76	.274	23.4	76

CUCurveball19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	12.5	37.5	88	.363	11.1	10
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	32.0	64	.224	26.8	47

SLSlider9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	23.1	54	.241	5.6	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	66.7	67	.538	0.0	7

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .554). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CLE)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Progressive Field (325/410/325 ft) · elev 660ft

11 HRs this season

vs RHP 9vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider4

FF4-Seam Fastball2

STSweeper2

SISinker1

CHChangeup1

CUCurveball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP181PA	.278	.556	.902	15.1%	12
🐾vs LHP81PA	.243	.429	.713	8.8%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home132PA	.241	.500	.838	11.6%	7
🐾Away130PA	.293	.534	.849	14.9%	9

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day97PA	.338	.605	.949	18.8%	8
Night165PA	.226	.466	.783	9.0%	8

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty77PA	.129	.300	.547	2
Runners On137PA	.358	.658	1.028	11
RISP77PA	.324	.603	.954	6

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs83PA	.212	.437	.762	4
1 Out81PA	.187	.440	.749	3
2 Outs98PA	.384	.651	.995	9

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-033PA	.122	.364	.606	1
1-019PA	.333	.722	1.091	1
0-126PA	.280	.560	.868	2
2-06PA	.333	.833	1.333	0
0-223PA	.565	1.000	1.435	4
3-05PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-245PA	.296	.432	.587	4
2-243PA	.170	.390	.646	2
3-231PA	.091	.182	.537	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Sat.