Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.1%

+609

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Parker Messick (0.90 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #2Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.8%

+750

RBI 1+

35.1%

+185

Hits 1+

66.5%

-198

Hits 2+

24.4%

+309

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

22.9%

95% CI · 22.4–23.4%

+336

Fair odds

1st AB

6.0%

Through AB2

11.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
vs SP-5%
Lineup+3%
Contact+13%
SP Contact+1%
Statcast+23%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0394 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+13% (×1.13)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+455

High

+2000

Low

+310

Med

+558

Avg

+717

🐾+455

Low +310🐾 HR money zoneHigh +2000

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+3952026-07-04vs ARIbook line

AwayBat 3rdoff RHPSweeper

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.6

Proj PA

275

HR / PA

.049

ISO

.227

wOBA

.356

wRC+

126

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

39.4

FB%

40.4

Pull%

33.7

Soft%

13.0

GB%

45.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

30.8

Hard%

42.3

FB%

25.0

Pull%

36.5

Soft%

11.5

GB%

65.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.8

Hard%

38.3

FB%

46.1

Pull%

32.6

Soft%

13.5

GB%

37.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

22.9

Hard%

36.1

FB%

42.2

Pull%

25.3

Soft%

13.3

GB%

48.2

Away

HR/FB

11.6

Hard%

41.8

FB%

39.1

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

12.7

GB%

42.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Parker Messick stingy: only 0.90 HR/9
Elite power: .258 ISO
15.1% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (61% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.218 OPS over last 15 days
Elite barrel% (15.1)
High barrels/PA (10.4%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.368↑ vs season .26761 PA · 15d

OPS

1.218

ISO

.457

RBI

K-BB

11-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CLE	4	1	1	2	0	0	1.000
💣 366ft · 100.2 EV · Cutter
06-16	vs CLE	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-14	vs PHI	4	2	1	1	0	0	1.250
💣 412ft · 102.6 EV · Sinker
06-13	vs PHI	5	4	2	4	0	0	2.000
💣 410ft · 102.3 EV · Cutter💣 410ft · 103.2 EV · Knuckle-Curve
06-12	vs PHI	5	1	0	1	0	1	.200
06-10	@ ATH	5	2	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 —
06-09	@ ATH	5	1	1	2	0	2	.800
💣 354ft · 94.5 EV · 4-Seamer
06-08	@ ATH	5	3	0	1	1	1	.600

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball49PA	.244	.348	23.3	51.7	37	27.2
🐾CHChangeup15PA	.214	.240	7.7	33.3	85	17.9
🐾SISinker37PA	.242	.444	10.3	73.1	45	11.1
🐾CUCurveball11PA	.445	.367	—	42.9	—	17.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.100	.447	16.7	83.3	17	30.4	193	12
vs RHP	.278	.316	25.0	45.8	42	25.4	147	38

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.272	.274	11.1	33.3	78	7.1	193	11
vs RHP	.200	.172	0.0	25.0	100	26.7	147	6

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.375	.426	12.5	75.0	75	0.0	193	8
vs RHP	.172	.450	9.5	71.4	33	12.5	147	33

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.750	.311	0.0	50.0	25	12.5	147	6

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Chourio.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Confirmed22 of 36 HRs · 61%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 22 of 36 career HRs (61%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.258

Barrel %

15.1

Hard Hit %

48.3

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.358

xBA

.267

Brl / PA %

10.40

Max EV (mph)

113.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

102.6

Avg EV on HRs

101.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

402

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/2

Avg LA on HRs

29.0°

Brl / PA %

10.40

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Parker Messick · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
31
xwOBA
.348
Whiff%
27.2
HH%
51.7
BRL%
23.3
Pull%
37
CHChangeup
Use%
25
xwOBA
.240
Whiff%
17.9
HH%
33.3
BRL%
7.7
Pull%
85
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 15 PA this season.
SISinker
Use%
17
xwOBA
.444
Whiff%
11.1
HH%
73.1
BRL%
10.3
Pull%
45
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Parker Messick arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.3	8.2	36.2	43	.230	25.0
CHChangeup	24.7	7.7	23.9	60	.234	24.8
SISinker	16.9	5.0	49.1	62	.415	7.1
CUCurveball	11.1	4.2	9.5	63	.252	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	38.9	44	.214	25.8	29
vs RHB	7.3	41.8	42	.236	22.8	91

CHChangeup25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	60.0	80	.256	29.4	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	8.5	25.5	57	.231	25.5	87

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	28.0	60	.328	8.3	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	60.0	63	.475	0.0	37

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	11.1	67	.159	0.0	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.7	26.7	60	.312	0.0	16

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .469). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CUCurveball1

CHChangeup1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 1.3 games · 7 PA (6 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP131PA	.252	.546	.897	15.0%	7
vs LHP42PA	.275	.650	1.055	14.3%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home92PA	.265	.566	.936	13.8%	6
Away81PA	.250	.579	.937	15.9%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day51PA	.250	.521	.835	17.5%	3
Night122PA	.262	.595	.980	13.6%	7

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty52PA	.143	.429	.756	1
Runners On73PA	.328	.597	.912	6
RISP45PA	.175	.450	.783	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs73PA	.328	.672	1.083	6
1 Out55PA	.200	.500	.864	2
2 Outs45PA	.222	.511	.800	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.