Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

23.3%

+329

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Gavin Williams (RHP) (1.36 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #2Projected lineup

2+ RBI

16.8%

+495

RBI 1+

39.6%

+152

Hits 1+

66.8%

-201

Hits 2+

24.8%

+304

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

27.4%

95% CI · 26.9–27.9%

+265

Fair odds

1st AB

7.4%

Through AB2

14.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
Wind+3%
vs SP-3%
Lineup+3%
Contact+13%
SP Contact+10%
Statcast+23%
SP Statcast+6%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Gavin Williams (RHP)

·10 mph wind out to OF
·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0398 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-3% (×0.97) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind+3% (×1.03)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+13% (×1.13)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+10% (×1.10)

SP Statcast allowed+6% (×1.06)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 8 games

Now

+330

High

+8030

Low

+240

Med

+618

Avg

+1496

+330

Low +240High +8030

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

15.4

Proj PA

367

HR / PA

.042

ISO

.206

wOBA

.351

wRC+

124

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

19.1

Hard%

38.9

FB%

41.6

Pull%

29.2

Soft%

12.4

GB%

40.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

50.0

Hard%

46.4

FB%

21.4

Pull%

25.0

Soft%

10.7

GB%

60.7

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

14.6

Hard%

36.5

FB%

48.2

Pull%

30.6

Soft%

12.9

GB%

34.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

23.8

Hard%

37.0

FB%

38.9

Pull%

24.1

Soft%

14.8

GB%

48.1

Away

HR/FB

15.4

Hard%

40.7

FB%

44.1

Pull%

33.9

Soft%

10.2

GB%

33.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Elite power: .250 ISO
15.9% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (ST)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (61% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.226 OPS over last 15 days
Elite barrel% (15.9)
High barrels/PA (10.9%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (12.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.386↑ vs season .26962 PA · 15d

OPS

1.226

ISO

.421

RBI

K-BB

11-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs CLE	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-14	vs PHI	4	2	1	1	0	0	1.250
💣 412ft · 102.6 EV · Sinker
06-13	vs PHI	5	4	2	4	0	0	2.000
💣 410ft · 102.3 EV · Cutter💣 410ft · 103.2 EV · Knuckle-Curve
06-12	vs PHI	5	1	0	1	0	1	.200
06-10	@ ATH	5	2	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 —
06-09	@ ATH	5	1	1	2	0	2	.800
💣 354ft · 94.5 EV · 4-Seamer
06-08	@ ATH	5	3	0	1	1	1	.600
06-07	@ COL	6	3	0	0	0	1	.833

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾STSweepervR16PA	.250	.438	25.0	33.3	58	31.0
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR37PA	.285	.325	26.1	47.8	44	25.7
🐾CUCurveballvR6PA	.750	.311	0.0	50.0	25	12.5
🐾SISinkervR31PA	.178	.457	9.5	71.4	33	13.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.250	.438	25.0	33.3	58	31.0	149	16

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.100	.447	16.7	83.3	17	30.4	194	12
vs RHPTONIGHT	.285	.325	26.1	47.8	44	25.7	149	37

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.750	.311	0.0	50.0	25	12.5	149	6

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.375	.426	12.5	75.0	75	0.0	194	8
vs RHPTONIGHT	.178	.457	9.5	71.4	33	13.2	149	31

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Chourio.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Projected22 of 36 HRs · 61%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 22 of 36 career HRs (61%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.250

Barrel %

15.9

Hard Hit %

49.1

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.360

xBA

.269

Brl / PA %

10.90

Max EV (mph)

113.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

102.6

Avg EV on HRs

101.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

402

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/2

Avg LA on HRs

29.0°

Brl / PA %

10.90

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Gavin Williams · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

STSweepervs RHP
Use%
26
xwOBA
.438
Whiff%
31.0
HH%
33.3
BRL%
25.0
Pull%
58
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.325
Whiff%
25.7
HH%
47.8
BRL%
26.1
Pull%
44
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.311
Whiff%
12.5
HH%
50.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
25

Career vs Gavin Williams (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.167AVG · small sample (6 PA)

OPS

.667

RBI

K-BB

4-0

Gavin Williams (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
STSweeper	25.7	6.8	25.6	77	.247	22.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	24.2	11.7	46.7	32	.375	19.8
CUCurveball	23.8	11.5	55.2	80	.290	20.5
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	17.0	12.2	63.6	59	.383	32.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

STSweeper26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.9	17.6	88	.203	27.6	37
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.4	37.0	70	.291	22.4	52

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	12.2	41.5	34	.372	20.3	63
vs RHB	10.5	63.2	26	.383	15.0	31

CUCurveball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	15.2	60.9	85	.336	21.7	72
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	67	.114	13.8	19

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	14.3	42.9	64	.366	22.2	20
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.4	68.6	57	.391	38.5	48

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 32.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .469). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CUCurveball1

CHChangeup1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 1.6 games · 8 PA (5 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP127PA	.234	.530	.884	16.0%	6
vs LHP42PA	.275	.650	1.055	14.3%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home88PA	.240	.544	.919	15.3%	5
Away81PA	.250	.579	.937	15.9%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day51PA	.250	.521	.835	17.5%	3
🐾Night118PA	.243	.579	.969	14.6%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty50PA	.149	.447	.787	1
Runners On71PA	.292	.554	.864	5
RISP43PA	.105	.368	.694	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs72PA	.334	.683	1.100	6
1 Out53PA	.208	.521	.898	2
2 Outs44PA	.159	.432	.705	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Wed.