Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
20.1%
+397
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs Griffin Jax (RHP) (1.62 HR/9) · park 127
2+ RBI
15.1%
+563
RBI 1+
38.1%
+163
Hits 1+
63.7%
-175
Hits 2+
21.5%
+365
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter10.7%
95% CI · 10.3–11.0%
+837
Fair odds
1st AB
2.4%
Through AB2
4.9%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park+27%
- vs SP-16%
- Contact-17%
- SP Contact+13%
- SP Statcast+2%
- Discipline-2%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Griffin Jax (RHP)
- ·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
- ·HR-friendly park (factor 127)
- ·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
- ·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
⚠ Thin blended HR rate
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0243 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj
Park+27% (×1.27)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-17% (×0.83)
Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)+13% (×1.13)
SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)
Discipline-2% (×0.98)
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
3.6
Proj PA
132
HR / PA
.027
ISO
.143
wOBA
.288
wRC+
79
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
25.0
FB%
50.0
Pull%
37.5
Soft%
12.5
GB%
37.5
🐾Home
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
25.0
FB%
50.0
Pull%
37.5
Soft%
12.5
GB%
37.5
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
5.0 🐾ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY
- Angel Stadium is a hitter's haven (+27 for RHB)
- Park boost (127)
- High barrels/PA (6.2%)
- Pitcher HR-prone (1.62 HR/9)
- Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.143↓ vs season .25014 PA · 15d
OPS
.357
ISO
.071
HR
0
RBI
1
K-BB
2-0
Game Log · Last 3
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 | vs TB | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .750 |
| 06-09 | vs HOU | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 06-08 | vs HOU | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
85
🐾vs RHB
127
vs SHB
106
Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Guzman.
Season Statcast
Barrel %
7.5
Pull % (HRs)
100
xBA
.250
Brl / PA %
6.18
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
104.6
Avg EV on HRs
104.6
Avg HR Distance (ft)
398
HRs in sample
1
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/1
Crushed (105+ mph)
0/1
Avg LA on HRs
31.0°
Brl / PA %
6.18
Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Griffin Jax · top 3 pitches tonight
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Unknown
- STSweeperUse%25xwOBA—Whiff%—HH%—BRL%—Pull%—
- FF4-Seam FastballUse%21xwOBA—Whiff%—HH%—BRL%—Pull%—
- CHChangeupUse%20xwOBA—Whiff%—HH%—BRL%—Pull%—
Griffin Jax (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
| Pitch | Use% | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST | 24.9 | 9.1 | 38.1 | 68 | .289 | 22.4 |
| FF | 20.6 | 23.8 | 47.6 | 52 | .454 | 14.3 |
| CH⚡ PUT-AWAY | 20.4 | 3.3 | 33.3 | 53 | .296 | 28.2 |
| SI | 19.6 | 4.2 | 41.7 | 71 | .374 | 21.4 |
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
STSweeper25% use
| Split | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT | 12.5 | 62.5 | 75 | .520 | 7.7 | 12 |
| vs RHB | 7.1 | 28.6 | 64 | .209 | 27.8 | 26 |
FF4-Seam Fastball21% use
| Split | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB | 15.4 | 38.5 | 46 | .402 | 16.7 | 18 |
| vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT | 37.5 | 62.5 | 63 | .531 | 11.8 | 12 |
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use
| Split | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB | 0.0 | 26.9 | 46 | .299 | 27.6 | 36 |
| vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY | 25.0 | 75.0 | 100 | .278 | 30.0 | 7 |
SISinker20% use
| Split | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY | 12.5 | 37.5 | 63 | .310 | 37.5 | 13 |
| vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT | 0.0 | 43.8 | 75 | .417 | 0.0 | 20 |
🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches
Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .619). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAA)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Angel Stadium (330/400/330 ft) · elev 153ft
1 HRs this season
vs RHP 0vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF4-Seam Fastball1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾vs RHP11PA | .091 | .273 | .455 | — | 0 |
| vs LHP3PA | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Home14PA | .071 | .214 | .357 | — | 0 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Night14PA | .071 | .214 | .357 | — | 0 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty5PA | .200 | .600 | 1.000 | 0 |
| Runners On8PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| RISP7PA | — | — | — | 0 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs2PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 1 Out3PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 2 Outs9PA | .111 | .333 | .555 | 0 |
Count
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-02PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 1-01PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 0-12PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 0-21PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 1-22PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 2-21PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 3-22PA | 1.500 | 2.000 | 2.500 | 1 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.