Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.5%

+697

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Gage Jump (1.20 HR/9) · park 114

2+ RBI

10.9%

+818

RBI 1+

34.3%

+192

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.2%

95% CI · 7.9–8.5%

+1119

Fair odds

1st AB

1.8%

Through AB2

3.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
vs SP-10%
Contact-6%
SP Contact-9%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 114)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0239 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+1340

High

+2000

Low

+555

Med

+642

Avg

+778

+1340

Low +555High +2000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.4

Proj PA

187

HR / PA

.029

ISO

.147

wOBA

.290

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

33.3

FB%

35.9

Pull%

48.7

Soft%

15.4

GB%

42.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

33.3

Hard%

33.3

FB%

40.0

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

20.0

GB%

40.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

33.3

FB%

34.9

Pull%

50.8

Soft%

14.3

GB%

42.9

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

27.5

FB%

30.0

Pull%

52.5

Soft%

20.0

GB%

45.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

39.5

FB%

42.1

Pull%

44.7

Soft%

10.5

GB%

39.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Sutter Health Park mild HR boost (+14)
Hot streak: .589 OPS over last 15 days
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (114)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.265↑ vs season .25034 PA · 15d

OPS

.589

ISO

.059

RBI

K-BB

6-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	K	SLG
06-17	@ ARI	4	1	0	2	.500
06-16	@ ARI	4	2	0	0	.500
06-15	@ ARI	4	1	0	1	.250
06-14	vs TB	4	1	1	1	.250
06-13	vs TB	4	2	3	0	.500
06-12	vs TB	4	2	0	0	.750
06-09	vs HOU	5	0	1	1	—
06-08	vs HOU	5	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seamer10PA	.300	.263	12.5	37.5	63	12.5
🐾SLSlider	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seamer

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.385	0.0	16.7	50	6.2	72	6

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Guzman.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

104.6

Avg EV on HRs

104.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

398

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

31.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Gage Jump · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
50
xwOBA
.263
Whiff%
12.5
HH%
37.5
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
63
SLSlider
Use%
25
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
CUCurveball
Use%
9
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Gage Jump arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	49.7	3.2	29.0	55	.290	18.2
SLSlider	24.7	5.0	35.0	65	.353	12.5
CUCurveball	9.0	0.0	33.3	50	.216	21.1
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.0	0.0	28.6	86	.212	35.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball50% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	0	.316	25.0	7
vs RHB	3.7	33.3	63	.285	17.5	36

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	57	.503	—	8
vs RHB	0.0	23.1	69	.282	14.3	17

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	33.3	67	.230	21.4	8

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY7% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	80	.133	42.9	8
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 35.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .619). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 0vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP27PA	.037	.333	.629	—	0
vs LHP7PA	.143	.286	.429	16.7%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home22PA	.046	.273	.500	—	0
🐾Away12PA	.084	.417	.750	8.3%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day8PA	.125	.375	.625	12.5%	0
🐾Night26PA	.039	.308	.577	—	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty10PA	.200	.700	1.200
Runners On16PA	—	.188	.376
RISP13PA	—	.231	.462

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs11PA	—	.182	.364
1 Out9PA	.111	.333	.555
2 Outs14PA	.072	.429	.786

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.