Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

7.7%

+1205

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trevor McDonald (RHP) (0.69 HR/9) · park 75

2+ RBI

8.2%

+1117

RBI 1+

31.8%

+214

Hits 1+

62.6%

-168

Hits 2+

20.5%

+389

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.2%

95% CI · 9.9–10.6%

+877

Fair odds

1st AB

2.3%

Through AB2

4.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-25%
vs SP-18%
Contact+17%
SP Contact+11%
Statcast+9%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0287 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-18% (×0.82) · blended_proj

Park-25% (×0.75)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+17% (×1.17)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+9% (×1.09)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games

Now

+1205

High

+1150

Low

+470

Med

+630

Avg

+679

+1205

Low +470High +1150

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.9

Proj PA

149

HR / PA

.033

ISO

.160

wOBA

.325

wRC+

107

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

15.0

Hard%

38.3

FB%

34.8

Pull%

34.8

Soft%

14.8

GB%

45.2

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

15.8

Hard%

37.3

FB%

34.5

Pull%

34.5

Soft%

14.5

GB%

44.5

Home

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

37.3

FB%

35.6

Pull%

25.4

Soft%

11.9

GB%

44.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

15.8

Hard%

39.3

FB%

33.9

Pull%

44.6

Soft%

17.9

GB%

46.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Oracle Park suppresses HRs (75)
Trevor McDonald stingy: only 0.69 HR/9
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (75)
High barrels/PA (6.7%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.69 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.240→ vs season .24426 PA · 15d

OPS

.509

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

5-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ SF	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-11	@ COL	3	1	0	0	0	.333
06-10	@ COL	2	0	1	0	1	—
06-09	@ COL	3	1	0	0	0	.333
06-07	vs SF	2	1	1	1	0	.500
06-06	vs SF	1	0	0	0	1	—
06-04	vs ATH	4	2	1	0	1	.500
06-02	vs ATH	1	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR20PA	.222	.317	12.5	56.2	25	16.2
🐾SLSlidervR22PA	.158	.250	0.0	37.5	56	28.2
🐾CHChangeupvR29PA	.037	.286	4.0	32.0	76	15.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.410	25.0	50.0	50	0.0	—	5
vs RHPTONIGHT	.222	.317	12.5	56.2	25	16.2	102	20

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.158	.250	0.0	37.5	56	28.2	102	22

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.037	.286	4.0	32.0	76	15.7	102	29

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

100

vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Ballesteros.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.157

Barrel %

9.6

Hard Hit %

47.0

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.318

xBA

.244

Brl / PA %

6.70

Max EV (mph)

111.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.2

Avg EV on HRs

102.2

Avg HR Distance (ft)

400

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/8

Avg LA on HRs

28.6°

Brl / PA %

6.70

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trevor McDonald · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
58
xwOBA
.317
Whiff%
16.2
HH%
56.2
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
25
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.250
Whiff%
28.2
HH%
37.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
56
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 22 PA this season.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
13
xwOBA
.286
Whiff%
15.7
HH%
32.0
BRL%
4.0
Pull%
76

Career vs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

1.167

RBI

K-BB

0-1

Trevor McDonald (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	57.5	3.5	41.8	57	.303	23.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	28.9	4.3	40.9	57	.267	24.2
CHChangeup	13.2	20.0	30.0	60	.375	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker58% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.2	43.8	63	.329	21.1	60
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.6	42.1	50	.274	26.5	54

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	13	.335	22.2	19
vs RHB	6.7	46.7	80	.216	23.1	24

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	22.2	33.3	56	.421	24.1	17
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .698). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 8vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

FCCutter2

CUCurveball1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP160PA	.154	.392	.698	11.7%	6
vs LHP8PA	.143	.286	.536	14.3%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home88PA	.160	.413	.765	17.9%	3
🐾Away80PA	.147	.360	.610	5.0%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day76PA	.213	.455	.784	16.4%	4
🐾Night92PA	.107	.333	.616	8.3%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty71PA	.125	.328	.610	2
Runners On69PA	.213	.492	.825	4
RISP42PA	.257	.486	.796	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs50PA	.113	.295	.575	1
1 Out68PA	.102	.339	.648	1
2 Outs50PA	.255	.532	.852	4

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-033PA	.281	.781	1.266	2
1-011PA	.363	.818	1.273	1
0-111PA	.273	.455	.636	1
2-03PA	1.000	1.333	1.667	1
0-217PA	—	.176	.353	0
3-05PA	—	—	.800	0
1-218PA	—	.056	.111	0
2-224PA	.174	.391	.600	1
3-227PA	.222	.389	.833	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.