Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.4%

+595

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Bryan Woo (0.99 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #5Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.9%

+740

RBI 1+

35.2%

+184

Hits 1+

66.0%

-194

Hits 2+

23.9%

+318

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

19.8%

95% CI · 19.3–20.2%

+405

Fair odds

1st AB

5.0%

Through AB2

9.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
Wind-1%
vs SP-7%
Contact-5%
Statcast+21%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0458 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-7% (×0.93) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind-1% (×0.99)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-5% (×0.95)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+21% (×1.21)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+685

High

+900

Low

+290

Med

+370

Avg

+461

+685

Low +290High +900

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

9.7

Proj PA

200

HR / PA

.048

ISO

.206

wOBA

.327

wRC+

109

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

21.9

Hard%

38.2

FB%

36.7

Pull%

45.7

Soft%

14.1

GB%

44.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

18.2

Hard%

37.8

FB%

24.4

Pull%

51.1

Soft%

26.7

GB%

55.6

vs RHP

HR/FB

22.6

Hard%

38.3

FB%

40.3

Pull%

44.2

Soft%

10.4

GB%

41.6

Home

HR/FB

24.4

Hard%

40.7

FB%

36.3

Pull%

52.2

Soft%

11.5

GB%

48.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

18.8

Hard%

34.9

FB%

37.2

Pull%

37.2

Soft%

17.4

GB%

39.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

T-Mobile Park mild HR boost (+8)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Elite barrel% (12.2)
High barrels/PA (8.1%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.179↓ vs season .26442 PA · 15d

OPS

.520

ISO

.103

RBI

K-BB

9-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ SEA	4	2	0	0	0	0	.500
06-16	@ SEA	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250
06-14	vs SD	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-13	vs SD	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-12	vs SD	4	1	1	2	0	2	1.000
💣 389ft · 99.7 EV · Changeup
06-11	vs SEA	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs SEA	2	0	0	1	0	1	—
06-08	vs SEA	1	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball64PA	.187	.366	14.3	60.0	39	27.6
🐾SISinker20PA	.200	.438	8.3	33.3	67	10.5
🐾STSweeper15PA	—	.275	20.0	44.4	60	36.1
🐾SLSlider34PA	.167	.329	4.0	41.7	76	34.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.403	14.3	71.4	43	31.6	60	10
vs RHP	.268	.360	14.3	59.5	38	21.5	134	61

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.275	0.0	12.5	63	12.0	60	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.500	.602	25.0	75.0	75	5.9	134	10

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.100	0.0	66.7	67	41.7	60	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.428	28.6	42.9	57	23.1	134	8

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.250	.321	0.0	50.0	88	47.6	60	14
vs RHP	.105	.335	5.9	35.3	71	25.0	134	21

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

108

vs RHB

vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Basallo.

Season Statcast

ISO

.203

Barrel %

12.2

Hard Hit %

45.9

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.343

xBA

.264

Brl / PA %

8.10

Max EV (mph)

112.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.0

Avg EV on HRs

108.2

Avg HR Distance (ft)

398

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

7/8

Avg LA on HRs

26.1°

Brl / PA %

8.10

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Bryan Woo · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
49
xwOBA
.366
Whiff%
27.6
HH%
60.0
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
39
SISinker
Use%
18
xwOBA
.438
Whiff%
10.5
HH%
33.3
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
67
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
.275
Whiff%
36.1
HH%
44.4
BRL%
20.0
Pull%
60
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 15 PA this season.

Career vs Bryan Woo

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Bryan Woo arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	48.9	7.1	42.5	38	.290	17.6
SISinker	18.1	8.5	51.8	56	.345	20.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	13.9	7.7	38.2	69	.257	24.6
SLSlider	12.9	9.1	50.0	59	.254	17.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball49% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.8	45.5	42	.339	16.0	104
vs RHB	5.6	36.1	31	.196	20.5	53

SISinker18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.8	56.2	56	.397	9.5	20
vs RHB	4.7	51.2	56	.329	25.7	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	33.3	83	.293	23.1	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	3.7	33.3	63	.240	27.1	40

SLSlider13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	50.0	56	.234	18.9	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	50.0	75	.405	0.0	4

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .497). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 7vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

FCCutter1

SISinker1

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 27 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP172PA	.246	.519	.856	15.9%	9
vs LHP51PA	.063	.292	.567	3.1%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home120PA	.269	.556	.898	16.5%	8
🐾Away103PA	.128	.362	.663	9.6%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day98PA	.216	.489	.836	13.3%	5
Night125PA	.193	.447	.751	13.3%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty69PA	.184	.446	.750	3
Runners On98PA	.184	.460	.797	3
RISP54PA	.149	.404	.719	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs80PA	.228	.471	.796	4
1 Out77PA	.151	.466	.804	2
2 Outs66PA	.238	.458	.761	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.