Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

22.5%

+345

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Randy Vásquez (RHP) (1.30 HR/9) · park 136

2+ RBI

16.4%

+511

RBI 1+

39.2%

+155

Hits 1+

66.2%

-196

Hits 2+

24.1%

+315

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

35.5%

95% CI · 35.0–36.1%

+181

Fair odds

1st AB

11.0%

Through AB2

20.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+36%
Temp+5%
vs SP+10%
Contact+21%
SP Contact-4%
Statcast+23%
SP Statcast+8%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Randy Vásquez (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 136)
·90F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0451 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+10% (×1.10) · blended_proj

Park+36% (×1.36)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+21% (×1.21)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)

SP Statcast allowed+8% (×1.08)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games · 1 HR

Now

+345

High

+885

Low

+335

Med

+512

Avg

+569

🐾+345

Low +335🐾 HR money zoneHigh +885

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

12.3

Proj PA

277

HR / PA

.044

ISO

.197

wOBA

.327

wRC+

108

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

18.0

Hard%

39.9

FB%

37.6

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

15.0

GB%

40.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

34.5

FB%

27.6

Pull%

48.3

Soft%

31.0

GB%

48.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

19.0

Hard%

41.3

FB%

40.4

Pull%

41.3

Soft%

10.6

GB%

38.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

40.8

FB%

42.1

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

11.8

GB%

40.8

Away

HR/FB

10.5

Hard%

39.0

FB%

32.2

Pull%

35.6

Soft%

18.6

GB%

40.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Oriole Park at Camden Yards is a hitter's haven (+36 for LHB)
Crushes 3/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, FC, SI)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (136)
Elite barrel% (12.8)
High barrels/PA (8.4%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (13.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.222↓ vs season .26542 PA · 15d

OPS

.754

ISO

.222

RBI

K-BB

10-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs SD	4	1	1	2	0	2	1.000
06-11	vs SEA	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs SEA	2	0	0	1	0	1	—
06-08	vs SEA	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-07	@ TOR	3	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-06	@ TOR	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	@ TOR	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-04	@ BOS	4	1	0	1	1	1	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR56PA	.294	.376	15.4	61.5	39	19.6
🐾FCCuttervR11PA	1.000	.692	50.0	62.5	88	22.6
🐾SISinkervR10PA	.500	.602	25.0	75.0	75	6.2
🐾CUCurveballvR17PA	.267	.283	9.1	36.4	73	29.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.403	14.3	71.4	43	31.6	68	10
vs RHPTONIGHT	.294	.376	15.4	61.5	39	19.6	133	56

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.104	0.0	0.0	80	25.0	68	5
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	1.000	.692	50.0	62.5	88	22.6	133	11

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.297	0.0	14.3	71	13.0	68	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.500	.602	25.0	75.0	75	6.2	133	10

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.267	.283	9.1	36.4	73	29.4	133	17

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

136

vs RHB

vs SHB

112

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Basallo.

Season Statcast

ISO

.219

Barrel %

12.8

Hard Hit %

48.1

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.350

xBA

.265

Brl / PA %

8.40

Max EV (mph)

112.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.0

Avg EV on HRs

108.2

Avg HR Distance (ft)

398

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

7/8

Avg LA on HRs

26.1°

Brl / PA %

8.40

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Randy Vásquez · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.376
Whiff%
19.6
HH%
61.5
BRL%
15.4
Pull%
39
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.692
Whiff%
22.6
HH%
62.5
BRL%
50.0
Pull%
88
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
14
xwOBA
.602
Whiff%
6.2
HH%
75.0
BRL%
25.0
Pull%
75
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Randy Vásquez (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	31.1	15.4	45.7	44	.341	14.3
FCCutter	23.7	14.3	42.2	61	.424	13.0
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	13.5	16.7	54.5	60	.450	26.5
CUCurveball	11.1	3.8	50.0	73	.356	13.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	12.7	47.3	51	.349	14.6	72
vs RHB	21.7	47.8	26	.328	15.4	36

FCCutter24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	3.7	33.3	70	.316	14.3	35
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	27.3	54.5	50	.560	9.5	27

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.0	40.0	70	.438	31.2	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.8	56.2	56	.460	20.0	39

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	52.4	67	.330	19.4	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	60.0	100	.473	11.1	8

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .497). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BAL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Camden Yards (333/410/318 ft) · elev 36ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 7vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

FCCutter1

SISinker1

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP157PA	.272	.536	.867	17.0%	9
vs LHP50PA	.064	.298	.578	3.2%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home112PA	.287	.574	.913	16.9%	8
Away95PA	.139	.360	.655	10.6%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day90PA	.234	.506	.850	14.8%	5
Night117PA	.208	.453	.752	13.5%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty62PA	.204	.441	.715	3
Runners On90PA	.203	.481	.825	3
RISP52PA	.156	.400	.708	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs76PA	.243	.485	.814	4
1 Out72PA	.162	.471	.804	2
2 Outs59PA	.264	.472	.760	4

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-026PA	.320	.600	.869	2
1-012PA	.250	.333	.417	1
0-116PA	.562	1.000	1.438	2
2-08PA	.500	1.125	1.750	1
0-228PA	.072	.286	.500	0
3-04PA	3.000	4.000	5.000	1
1-236PA	.111	.278	.444	0
2-230PA	.104	.276	.443	1
3-218PA	—	.111	.667	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.