Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.6%

+584

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Gage Jump (LHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 114

Batting #6Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

12.0%

+730

RBI 1+

35.3%

+183

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.6%

95% CI · 11.3–12.0%

+759

Fair odds

1st AB

2.8%

Through AB2

5.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
Temp+5%
vs SP-8%
Contact+26%
SP Contact-9%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Gage Jump (LHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·91F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (season) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0230 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-8% (×0.92) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+26% (×1.26)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.0

Proj PA

185

HR / PA

.022

ISO

.139

wOBA

.312

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

37.5

FB%

75.0

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

12.5

GB%

25.0

Home

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

37.5

FB%

75.0

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

12.5

GB%

25.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Las Vegas Ballpark mild HR boost (+14)
92°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (114)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.286↑ vs season .25015 PA · 15d

OPS

1.190

ISO

.571

RBI

K-BB

3-1

Game Log · Last 4

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ ATH	3	1	1	3	0	0	1.333
06-11	vs CHC	4	2	1	1	0	1	1.250
💣 418ft · 102.2 EV · Slider
06-10	vs CHC	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs CHC	3	1	0	0	1	1	1.000

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seamer9PA	.250	.145	14.3	42.9	29	17.6
🐾SLSlider	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seamer

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.400	.165	20.0	40.0	20	11.1	—	6

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

vs RHB

114

🐾vs SHB

104

Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Carrigg.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Gage Jump · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
49
xwOBA
.145
Whiff%
17.6
HH%
42.9
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
29
SLSlider
Use%
24
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
STSweeper
Use%
9
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Gage Jump (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	49.4	4.2	29.2	54	.288	13.5
SLSlider	23.8	6.7	33.3	67	.356	13.3
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	8.6	0.0	33.3	83	.208	38.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball49% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.8	33.3	62	.283	14.7	28

SLSlider24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	50.0	67	.506	—	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	22.2	67	.276	15.4	13

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	75	.116	50.0	7
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 38.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

Hover / tap a cell to inspect.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP7PA	.834	1.167	1.596	33.3%	1
🐾vs LHP5PA	—	.200	.400	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home12PA	.454	.727	1.060	12.5%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day4PA	.750	1.250	1.750	37.5%	1
🐾Night8PA	.286	.429	.679	—	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty4PA	1.666	2.333	3.083	1
Runners On6PA	—	.167	.334	0
RISP3PA	—	.333	.666	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs3PA	—	—	—	0
1 Out5PA	.400	.800	1.200	0
2 Outs4PA	1.000	1.333	1.833	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-03PA	.667	1.000	1.333	0
1-02PA	—	1.000	2.000	0
0-11PA	—	—	—	0
0-22PA	—	—	—	0
3-01PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-23PA	—	—	—	0
2-21PA	—	—	—	0
3-23PA	2.000	3.000	4.000	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Fri.