Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.6%

+695

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Michael Soroka (RHP) (0.73 HR/9) · park 110

2+ RBI

10.9%

+816

RBI 1+

34.3%

+192

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.3%

95% CI · 5.0–5.5%

+1805

Fair odds

1st AB

1.3%

Through AB2

2.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+10%
Temp+5%
vs SP-16%
Contact-15%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast-15%
SP Statcast-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Michael Soroka (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
·88F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0198 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj

Park+10% (×1.10)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-15% (×0.85)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-1% (×0.99)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 10 games

Now

+695

High

+1190

Low

+650

Med

+782

Avg

+814

+695

Low +650High +1190

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.2

Proj PA

181

HR / PA

.018

ISO

.111

wOBA

.301

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

26.3

FB%

33.3

Pull%

26.3

Soft%

15.8

GB%

46.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

20.0

FB%

13.3

Pull%

20.0

Soft%

15.0

GB%

53.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

28.6

FB%

38.9

Pull%

28.6

Soft%

16.1

GB%

44.4

🐾Home

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

23.5

FB%

50.0

Pull%

17.6

Soft%

20.6

GB%

28.1

Away

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

29.5

FB%

23.1

Pull%

31.8

Soft%

13.6

GB%

59.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Great American Ball Park mild HR boost (+10)
Michael Soroka stingy: only 0.73 HR/9
Hot streak: .600 OPS over last 15 days
89°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (110)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.73 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.231↓ vs season .25055 PA · 15d

OPS

.600

ISO

.096

RBI

K-BB

13-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs ARI	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-09	@ SD	5	1	0	0	1	2	.200
06-08	@ SD	5	1	0	0	0	2	.200
06-07	@ STL	5	1	0	0	0	0	.200
06-06	@ STL	4	3	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-05	@ STL	5	2	0	0	0	1	.400
06-03	vs KC	5	2	1	2	0	0	1.000
💣 368ft · 97.7 EV · Slider
06-02	vs KC	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SVSlurve	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR17PA	.214	.361	11.1	44.4	56	22.2
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.214	.361	11.1	44.4	56	22.2	107	17

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

110

vs SHB

104

Great American Ball Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Dunn.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.1

Avg EV on HRs

107.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

393

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/1

Avg LA on HRs

18.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Michael Soroka · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

SVSlurve
Use%
33
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.361
Whiff%
22.2
HH%
44.4
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
56
CHChangeup
Use%
13
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Michael Soroka (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SVSlurve	32.8	3.2	32.8	69	.273	22.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	31.7	8.8	41.9	49	.345	17.3
CHChangeup	12.6	15.2	21.9	67	.375	14.8
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	11.7	12.9	32.0	81	.340	26.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SVSlurve33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	36.1	69	.301	23.1	68
vs RHB	7.7	30.8	69	.237	26.2	50

FF4-Seam Fastball32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.9	34.4	50	.389	16.8	88
vs RHB	0.0	56.2	44	.211	19.6	27

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	20.0	67	.379	16.0	35
vs RHB	no sample

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	16.7	50.0	78	.357	22.2	21
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.7	23.1	85	.316	33.3	16

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .536). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CIN)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Great American Ball Park (328/404/325 ft) · elev 482ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SISinker1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP78PA	.137	.425	.758	5.2%	2
vs LHP33PA	.066	.333	.666	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home51PA	.107	.277	.512	3.1%	1
Away60PA	.125	.500	.917	4.3%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day43PA	.205	.487	.836	6.2%	1
Night68PA	.063	.344	.668	2.2%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty30PA	.250	.571	.938	1
Runners On50PA	.064	.298	.578	1
RISP29PA	—	.185	.426	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs40PA	.054	.324	.649	0
1 Out33PA	.125	.469	.833	1
2 Outs38PA	.177	.412	.728	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-016PA	—	.250	.500	0
1-011PA	—	.364	.727	0
0-113PA	—	.462	.923	0
2-04PA	.750	1.000	1.250	1
0-213PA	.084	.167	.321	0
1-213PA	.077	.462	.846	0
2-212PA	.084	.167	.250	0
3-210PA	—	—	.400	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.