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Nolan SchanuelLHB
LAA
🐾 Tonight8:07 PM MT · Angel Stadium
Home Run
10.0%
+900
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Griffin Jax (RHP) (1.62 HR/9) · park 85
2+ RBI
9.5%
+953
RBI 1+
33.0%
+203
Hits 1+
66.8%
-201
Hits 2+
24.8%
+304
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
4.8%
95% CI · 4.6–5.1%
+1976
Fair odds
1st AB
1.1%
Through AB2
2.3%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
  • Park-15%
  • vs SP-16%
  • Contact-9%
  • SP Contact+12%
  • Statcast-15%
  • SP Statcast+2%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Griffin Jax (RHP)
  • ·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
  • ·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
  • ·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
  • ·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)
⚠ Thin blended HR rate
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0186 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj
Park-15% (×0.85)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)
Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)
SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)
Discipline-1% (×0.99)
HR Odds History
Price range · 8 games · 1 HR
Now
+900
High
+1690
Low
+665
Med
+950
Avg
+1071
🐾+900
Low +665🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1690
🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
3.5
Proj PA
315
HR / PA
.011
ISO
.092
wOBA
.310
wRC+
94
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
8.2
Hard%
27.9
FB%
29.9
Pull%
44.2
Soft%
15.2
GB%
47.0
vs LHP
HR/FB
7.7
Hard%
22.0
FB%
32.5
Pull%
36.6
Soft%
26.8
GB%
47.5
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
8.3
Hard%
29.8
FB%
29.0
Pull%
46.8
Soft%
11.3
GB%
46.8
🐾Home
HR/FB
7.1
Hard%
29.1
FB%
32.9
Pull%
46.5
Soft%
14.0
GB%
42.4
Away
HR/FB
9.5
Hard%
26.6
FB%
26.6
Pull%
41.8
Soft%
16.5
GB%
51.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick
2.0 🐾
DART THROW
  • Angel Stadium suppresses HRs (85)
  • Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (39% of career HRs)
  • Park drag (85)
  • Pitcher HR-prone (1.62 HR/9)
  • Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.111↓ vs season .26911 PA · 15d
OPS
.384
ISO
—
HR
0
RBI
1
K-BB
3-1
Game Log · Last 8
DateOppABHHRRBIBBKSLG
06-12vs TB100000—
06-09vs HOU1101001.000
06-08vs HOU000000—
06-07@ LAD400013—
06-06@ LAD300000—
05-23vs TEX310100.667
05-22vs TEX520101.400
05-21vs ATH4112001.000
💣 392ft · 105.7 EV · Sweeper
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

PitchISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%
🐾STvR13PA.417.31310.040.07036.4
🐾FFvR51PA.186.4155.644.4535.9
🐾CHvR23PA—.1980.05.36825.0
🐾SIvR20PA.059.4326.740.0676.9
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
STSweeper
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP—.0510.00.02025.0467
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT.417.31310.040.07036.410813
FF4-Seam Fastball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP.182.2895.935.3415.74625
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT.186.4155.644.4535.910851
CHChangeup
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPno sample
vs RHPTONIGHT—.1980.05.36825.010823
SISinker
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP—.3180.033.3734.24619
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT.059.4326.740.0676.910820
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
🐾vs LHB
85
vs RHB
127
vs SHB
106

Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Schanuel.

HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 9 of 23 career HRs (39%).
9
1
🐾
9
2
🐾
3
3
·
4
·
5
·
2
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast
ISO
.121
Barrel %
3.0
Hard Hit %
32.1
Pull % (HRs)
100
xwOBA
.311
xBA
.269
Brl / PA %
2.30
Max EV (mph)
106.6
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
103.6
Avg EV on HRs
101.7
Avg HR Distance (ft)
364
HRs in sample
3
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/3
Crushed (105+ mph)
0/3
Avg LA on HRs
24.3°
Brl / PA %
2.30

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Griffin Jax · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Neutral matchup
  • STSweepervs RHP
    Use%
    25
    xwOBA
    .313
    Whiff%
    36.4
    HH%
    40.0
    BRL%
    10.0
    Pull%
    70
  • FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
    Use%
    21
    xwOBA
    .415
    Whiff%
    5.9
    HH%
    44.4
    BRL%
    5.6
    Pull%
    53

    🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

  • CHChangeupvs RHP
    Use%
    20
    xwOBA
    .198
    Whiff%
    25.0
    HH%
    5.3
    BRL%
    0.0
    Pull%
    68

    ⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 23 PA this season.

Career vs Griffin Jax (RHP)
🐾 Tonight's matchup
—AVG · small sample (1 PA)
OPS
—
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
0-0
Griffin Jax (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
PitchUse%BRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%
ST24.99.138.168.28922.4
FF20.623.847.652.45414.3
CH⚡ PUT-AWAY20.43.333.353.29628.2
SI19.64.241.771.37421.4
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
STSweeper25% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT12.562.575.5207.712
vs RHB7.128.664.20927.826
FF4-Seam Fastball21% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB15.438.546.40216.718
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT37.562.563.53111.812
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB0.026.946.29927.636
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY25.075.0100.27830.07
SISinker20% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY12.537.563.31037.513
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT0.043.875.4170.020

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

.29.37🐾.30.32.37.32.31.25.31
🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .373). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAA)
CFLFRF330ft400ft330ftSLFFFF
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Angel Stadium (330/400/330 ft) · elev 153ft
3 HRs this season
vs RHP 2vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2
SLSlider1
Bats L · Pull side: RF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾vs RHP161PA.134.416.7453.1%3
vs LHP58PA.079.255.5142.3%1
Location
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Home111PA.147.431.7554.7%2
Away108PA.092.316.6121.2%2
Time
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
Day73PA.110.344.6593.7%2
🐾Night146PA.125.390.6982.5%2
Base State
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Bases Empty76PA.137.455.8631
Runners On107PA.100.300.5342
RISP65PA.102.288.5191
Outs
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0 Outs62PA.086.310.5681
1 Out77PA.119.343.6552
2 Outs80PA.146.453.8031
Count
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0-029PA.072.286.5270
1-013PA—.154.3080
0-116PA.067.400.7130
2-03PA1.5002.0002.3331
0-224PA.084.292.5000
3-02PA——1.0000
1-235PA.089.324.5811
2-241PA.025.171.3170
3-229PA.316.6321.1492

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.