Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

6.9%

+1355

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Gage Jump (1.20 HR/9) · park 95

Batting #6Projected lineup

2+ RBI

7.8%

+1185

RBI 1+

31.4%

+218

Hits 1+

66.8%

-201

Hits 2+

24.8%

+304

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.5%

95% CI · 4.3–4.8%

+2106

Fair odds

1st AB

1.0%

Through AB2

2.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
vs SP-10%
Contact-11%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast-15%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0188 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+1355

High

+4000

Low

+585

Med

+822

Avg

+1001

🐾+1355

Low +585🐾 HR money zoneHigh +4000

WARMspot score 70

Just below his HR money zone (+795 to +795). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+7952026-06-23vs BALbook line

HomeBat 3rdoff RHPCutter

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.6

Proj PA

221

HR / PA

.012

ISO

.093

wOBA

.308

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

28.6

FB%

30.0

Pull%

44.4

Soft%

13.7

GB%

46.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

21.8

FB%

31.5

Pull%

47.3

Soft%

27.3

GB%

50.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

7.3

Hard%

30.6

FB%

29.6

Pull%

43.5

Soft%

9.7

GB%

45.2

Home

HR/FB

8.6

Hard%

29.7

FB%

29.9

Pull%

48.3

Soft%

15.3

GB%

44.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

8.1

Hard%

27.6

FB%

30.1

Pull%

40.6

Soft%

12.2

GB%

48.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

1.0 🐾

DART THROW

Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (39% of career HRs)
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.182↓ vs season .26929 PA · 15d

OPS

.561

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

5-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ ARI	4	1	0	1	1	.250
06-15	@ ARI	4	0	0	0	0	—
06-14	vs TB	1	0	0	1	0	—
06-13	vs TB	4	2	0	1	1	.500
06-12	vs TB	1	0	0	0	0	—
06-09	vs HOU	1	1	1	0	0	1.000
06-08	vs HOU	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-07	@ LAD	4	0	0	1	3	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball73PA	.185	.368	5.4	38.5	50	11.9
🐾SLSlider24PA	.222	.350	0.0	13.3	80	33.3
🐾CUCurveball16PA	.066	.262	0.0	33.3	70	25.0
🐾STSweeper20PA	.263	.202	6.2	33.3	56	32.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.182	.289	5.9	35.3	41	5.6	52	25
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.174	.402	5.1	41.0	54	5.6	106	55

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.352	0.0	0.0	83	31.2	52	9
vs RHP	.333	.351	0.0	22.2	78	34.3	106	17

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.084	.300	0.0	30.0	70	25.0	106	12

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.044	0.0	0.0	20	33.3	52	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.384	.290	9.1	45.5	73	33.3	106	14

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Schanuel.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #6Projected2 of 23 HRs · 9%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 9 of 23 career HRs (39%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.112

Barrel %

2.8

Hard Hit %

31.6

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.316

xBA

.269

Brl / PA %

2.10

Max EV (mph)

106.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

103.6

Avg EV on HRs

101.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

364

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/3

Avg LA on HRs

24.3°

Brl / PA %

2.10

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Gage Jump · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
50
xwOBA
.368
Whiff%
11.9
HH%
38.5
BRL%
5.4
Pull%
50
SLSlider
Use%
25
xwOBA
.350
Whiff%
33.3
HH%
13.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
80
CUCurveball
Use%
9
xwOBA
.262
Whiff%
25.0
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
70
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 16 PA this season.

Gage Jump arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	49.7	3.2	29.0	55	.290	18.2
SLSlider	24.7	5.0	35.0	65	.353	12.5
CUCurveball	9.0	0.0	33.3	50	.216	21.1
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.0	0.0	28.6	86	.212	35.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball50% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	0	.316	25.0	7
vs RHB	3.7	33.3	63	.285	17.5	36

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	57	.503	—	8
vs RHB	0.0	23.1	69	.282	14.3	17

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	33.3	67	.230	21.4	8

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY7% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	80	.133	42.9	8
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 35.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .373). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP175PA	.126	.403	.740	2.9%	3
vs LHP62PA	.074	.259	.533	2.2%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home120PA	.140	.430	.780	4.4%	2
🐾Away117PA	.085	.302	.593	1.1%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day77PA	.107	.338	.676	3.6%	2
🐾Night160PA	.114	.378	.691	2.3%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty80PA	.130	.449	.862	1
Runners On118PA	.094	.290	.544	2
RISP71PA	.093	.262	.473	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs68PA	.081	.311	.605	1
1 Out80PA	.118	.353	.691	2
2 Outs89PA	.131	.417	.743	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.