Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.2%

+991

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ranger Suarez (LHP) (0.55 HR/9) · park 102

2+ RBI

9.0%

+1006

RBI 1+

32.6%

+207

Hits 1+

54.0%

-117

Hits 2+

13.2%

+660

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.8%

95% CI · 8.5–9.1%

+1040

Fair odds

1st AB

1.8%

Through AB2

3.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+2%
Temp+5%
vs SP-31%
Contact-2%
SP Contact+2%
Statcast-2%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Ranger Suarez (LHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·90F game

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0265 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-31% (×0.69) · blended_proj

Park+2% (×1.02)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-2% (×0.98)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-2% (×0.98)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+2% (×1.02)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games

Now

+990

High

+1190

Low

+590

Med

+748

Avg

+810

+990

Low +590High +1190

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.7

Proj PA

275

HR / PA

.031

ISO

.166

wOBA

.318

wRC+

102

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.6

Hard%

32.2

FB%

51.5

Pull%

36.4

Soft%

19.6

GB%

33.1

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

0.0

FB%

46.7

Pull%

29.4

Soft%

41.2

GB%

46.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

36.5

FB%

52.1

Pull%

37.3

Soft%

16.7

GB%

31.4

Home

HR/FB

10.3

Hard%

26.2

FB%

48.3

Pull%

37.7

Soft%

14.8

GB%

35.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

7.3

Hard%

36.6

FB%

53.9

Pull%

35.4

Soft%

23.2

GB%

31.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Ranger Suarez stingy: only 0.55 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (4.4%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.55 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.200→ vs season .19834 PA · 15d

OPS

.527

ISO

.033

RBI

K-BB

10-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ BOS	2	0	0	0	2	—
06-11	@ KC	4	1	1	0	1	.250
06-10	@ KC	3	1	1	2	0	.333
06-09	@ KC	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-07	vs CLE	1	1	1	0	0	1.000
06-06	vs CLE	3	0	0	0	2	—
06-05	vs CLE	1	0	0	0	0	—
06-03	@ STL	2	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervL12PA	—	.194	12.5	63	5.9
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL6PA	—	.184	—	50	14.3
🐾FCCutter14PA	—	.325	25.0	56	30.4
🐾CHChangeup40PA	.111	.158	31.8	73	38.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.194	0.0	12.5	63	5.9	-46	12
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.154	.525	8.3	58.3	58	13.8	98	21

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.184	0.0	0.0	50	14.3	-46	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.227	.367	12.5	42.9	52	13.7	98	77

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.325	0.0	22.2	56	22.2	98	17

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.108	.158	0.0	31.8	73	38.7	98	42

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

102

vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Carter.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 2 of 3 career HRs (67%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.145

Barrel %

7.0

Hard Hit %

37.8

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.294

xBA

.198

Brl / PA %

4.40

Max EV (mph)

108.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

101.7

Avg EV on HRs

99.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

373

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/5

Avg LA on HRs

30.4°

Brl / PA %

4.40

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ranger Suarez · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinkervs LHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.194
Whiff%
5.9
HH%
12.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
63
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 12 PA this season.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
21
xwOBA
.184
Whiff%
14.3
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
FCCutter
Use%
20
xwOBA
.325
Whiff%
30.4
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
56

Ranger Suarez (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	26.9	3.1	35.6	47	.320	30.4
FF4-Seam Fastball	21.1	17.9	33.3	50	.341	17.8
FCCutter	19.7	6.1	31.8	71	.331	16.7
CHChangeup	15.3	5.9	31.3	68	.296	12.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	8.0	24.0	60	.263	36.4	34
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	46.2	39	.359	28.9	58

FF4-Seam Fastball21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	29	.464	28.6	14
vs RHB	19.0	28.6	57	.277	12.9	27

FCCutter20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.3	27.7	70	.305	16.2	56

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	6.5	29.0	65	.293	15.1	41

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .386). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SLSlider1

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP198PA	.168	.367	.683	7.7%	6
🐾vs LHP31PA	—	.037	.170	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home97PA	.155	.357	.659	3.1%	3
🐾Away132PA	.138	.294	.579	9.6%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day65PA	.145	.309	.563	8.5%	2
Night164PA	.145	.326	.633	6.0%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty73PA	.032	.262	.618	0
Runners On98PA	.227	.417	.691	4
RISP58PA	.166	.333	.588	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs84PA	.152	.288	.584	3
1 Out71PA	.068	.288	.626	0
2 Outs74PA	.206	.382	.625	3

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-025PA	.261	.522	.762	2
1-011PA	.454	.818	1.182	0
0-116PA	.133	.200	.325	0
2-01PA	—	—	—	0
0-221PA	—	.150	.293	0
3-02PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-237PA	.027	.083	.164	0
2-236PA	.086	.143	.226	1
3-253PA	.226	.484	1.050	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Sat.