Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.6%

+697

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joe Ryan (0.88 HR/9) · park 91

Batting #3Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

10.9%

+817

RBI 1+

34.3%

+192

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.5%

95% CI · 12.1–12.9%

+701

Fair odds

1st AB

3.1%

Through AB2

6.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-9%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
SP Contact-10%
Statcast-5%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0401 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-9% (×0.91)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-5% (×0.95)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 9 games

Now

+540

High

+5485

Low

+360

Med

+425

Avg

+1533

+540

Low +360High +5485

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

12.4

Proj PA

255

HR / PA

.048

ISO

.229

wOBA

.358

wRC+

131

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.8

Hard%

32.8

FB%

44.5

Pull%

38.7

Soft%

21.9

GB%

38.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

33.3

FB%

45.5

Pull%

39.4

Soft%

18.2

GB%

39.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.0

Hard%

32.7

FB%

44.2

Pull%

38.5

Soft%

23.1

GB%

37.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

18.5

Hard%

42.6

FB%

50.0

Pull%

40.7

Soft%

18.5

GB%

33.3

Away

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

26.5

FB%

41.0

Pull%

37.3

Soft%

24.1

GB%

41.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Globe Life Field suppresses HRs (91)
Joe Ryan stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (52% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .702 OPS over last 15 days
94°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (91)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.233↓ vs season .25046 PA · 15d

OPS

.702

ISO

.186

RBI

K-BB

10-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs MIN	3	1	0	0	0	1	.333
06-15	vs MIN	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-14	@ BOS	4	1	1	1	1	1	1.000
💣 418ft · 106.8 EV · 4-Seamer
06-13	@ BOS	5	3	0	1	0	1	.600
06-12	@ BOS	4	2	0	1	0	0	.750
06-11	@ KC	5	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	@ KC	5	1	0	0	0	2	.200
06-09	@ KC	3	0	0	0	1	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball39PA	.079	.194	3.4	19.2	31	21.6
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SISinker31PA	.143	.347	3.6	56.5	46	13.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.187	.231	11.1	22.2	78	17.6	106	17
vs RHP	.039	.142	0.0	20.0	10	17.5	72	27

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.285	.244	0.0	40.0	0	7.7	106	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.077	.392	4.3	69.6	57	10.0	72	31

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Langford.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Confirmed10 of 31 HRs · 32%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 16 of 31 career HRs (52%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

99.0

Avg EV on HRs

97.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

369

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/2

Avg LA on HRs

28.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Joe Ryan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
44
xwOBA
.194
Whiff%
21.6
HH%
19.2
BRL%
3.4
Pull%
31
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 39 PA this season.
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
CUCurveball
Use%
12
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Joe Ryan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	44.1	12.6	48.5	56	.310	18.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	14.0	10.0	28.6	77	.234	32.1
CUCurveball	12.2	—	24.0	—	.219	21.3
SISinker	11.8	10.0	50.0	45	.301	17.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball44% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	50.7	57	.308	23.4	105
vs RHB	11.1	47.2	53	.311	13.4	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	75	.331	33.3	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	22.2	78	.180	30.2	33

SISinker12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	33.3	58	.301	21.1	20
vs RHB	14.3	64.3	39	.304	12.9	32

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 32.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .498). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SLSlider1

KCKnuckle-Curve1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 35 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP91PA	.104	.345	.620	4.8%	1
vs LHP39PA	.250	.472	.754	12.5%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home43PA	.200	.375	.608	11.9%	1
Away87PA	.121	.386	.685	3.1%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day59PA	.122	.333	.570	8.9%	1
Night71PA	.166	.424	.734	4.8%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty49PA	.239	.478	.764	2
Runners On53PA	.080	.340	.642	0
RISP27PA	.040	.280	.576	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs46PA	.112	.356	.617	1
1 Out46PA	.143	.429	.777	1
2 Outs38PA	.194	.361	.572	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.